Analysing Course And Distance Winners

You can find out if a horse is a course or distance winner without much difficulty. The information is available on every website that provides racing details including the Racing Post and Sporting Life.

As with every statistic these will perform better in certain areas than in others and I would like to investigate one particular area where they may perform well. Lets start with a basic analysis of course, distance and course/distance winners.

Course

Distance

Course and Distance

There are some interesting results that you may not have thought you would be seeing. The course and distance winners have the highest strike rate, which is not unexpected, but they do not have the best ROI. Distance winners have the best ROI and it is the profit that we are most interested in. One thing is clear, you will not be making a profit using this information on its own!

Available odds are one of the most predictive factors and the ROI and strike rate for distance winners is significantly reduced once we start going above odds of 18/1. If we limit ourselves to runners with odds of 18/1 or less we then get the following results.

A good improvement in the ROI and a small improvement in Strike Rate which is excellent. Breaking down the results by Days Since Last Ran.

It is very clear that 1-7 days since last ran is significantly better performing than any other. We may also find that if we look for a runner that has won in the last few days instead then the performance is increased even more.

Once again there is a big improvement in the performance if we look at the number of days since a win rather than number of days since raced. With a 21.60% strike rate and -5.60% ROI for horses who won in less than 7 days and who are distance winners we are going to be break-even if betting on Betfair. I am sure that we can improve on this still though.

My last filter is going to be distances.

Sprints are losing money where as middle distance races are break-even and long distance races are making a profit.

Using the filters:

Distance Winner

Last Won less than 7 days ago

Distance should be long

If you are not adverse to doing some small amount of analysis I would suggest that you find any runner who has won at the distance and had a winning race in the last 7 days. Then take a look at the race and analyse whether you feel this runner is going to be competitive in the race. By doing this you are going to have a significant amount of bets each year and the manual analysis will help to remove those runners that do not make a profit.

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