Bumper Favourites Last Time Out

Last week I looked at how the statistics of beaten favourites can help to point us in the right direction to finding which ones make a profit and which don’t. You can find that article at Beaten Favourites.

Today I thought it would be interesting to look at horses that were favourites last time out. As we are nearing Christmas and National Hunt fever is upon us I would look specifically at the horses that were favourites last time out in a National Hunt Flat race and are going into another National Hunt Flat race.

Let us begin by looking at all the horses in National Hunt Flat races that were favourites in their last race (which was also a National Hunt Flat race). These horses win 19.63% of the time which isn’t to bad as a starting point but they make a massive loss of -25.13 return on investment. So clearly they are not good betting propositions in their own right.

If we just look at horses that are favourites again then the strike rate increases to a massive 39.50% and the return on investment increases to -7.63%. This looks great! An easy step in the right direction! As always though, it is not that easy. By doing this we will limit ourselves to around just 40 selections a year.

This means that we are going to need to find other factors that signify a National Hunt Flat horse that was favourite last time out may go on to win in the following race. The most obvious place to begin looking for this is to see if the horse won last time out. Going into the data we are shown:

Runners	Winners	Win S/R	ROI to SP
489	121	24.74	-13.62

This clearly shows an improvement but this analysis has been done over ten years and so we are back to around 50 runners a year. We may as well wait for those horses that are favourites in their next race and increase the return on investment to -7.63%. It is quite clear that we are not going to get many selections using this but that is fine. We are not creating a system but trying to find when these horses are at their most profitable. This means that when we see a horse that fits these specific conditions as long as everything seems to be suitable for them they are likely to be good bets.

In an effort to get a few more bets to play with I decided to look at horses that finished in the top three on their last time out. The reason for looking at this is because a National Hunt Flat race is a long race and usually horses that are in the top three or four have performed competitively during the race.

Runners	Winners	Win S/R	ROI to SP
903	205	22.7	-18.94

This has made a massive difference. We have nearly double the amount of runners with little difference in the strike rate and return on investment. Now that we know where a nice amount of the winners come from we need to try and find out where the losing bets come from.

A factor that can affect horses in long races is the weight. We assess this simply by assuming that the British Handicapping Association have done their job properly (which isn’t always the case) and the top weighted horse is the best horse in the field. We don’t want to look just at the best horse because usually these are over bet and are unlikely to provide us with any value. A little bit of research showed that a horse in the top five weights for the race produce:

Runners	Winners	Win S/R	ROI to SP
675	173	25.63	-12.33

As you can see this has made a nice increase in our strike rate and increased our return on investment without damaging the amount of runners we have significantly.

Let us take a quick look at where we have got to. In National Hunt Flat races where:

• The horse was favourite in its last race
• The horses last race was a National Hunt Flat race
• The horse finished in the top 3 last time out
• The horse is in the top 5 weights for this race

If these conditions are fulfilled we know that our horse has over a 25% chance of winning the race. Having a horse that wins 25% of the time is a pretty good start. The return on investment still leaves a lot to be desired but this will decrease dramatically if you are getting better than SP. Is it possible to make a profit with these horses? Of course it is but you will not be able to flat bet them straight out. When you have analysed the race if these horses seem to like the conditions of the race, have a good preference for the going and no serious contenders then you will be able to continue on your way to betting profits.

If systematic betting is your preference then I shall let you take the basics of a winning methodology and research further to find a spot play system that could reap rewards.

Just a hint but try having a look at distance and going preferences!

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