Yesterday saw some great races, the odds of the runners in the frame in the 4.40 were absolutely incredible. Depending on what odds you took yesterday and what offers you got then we made between -1.5 and +1.5 units. Personally I ended up at about break even on the day. Let’s crack on into todays racing and see what we can find.
1.30 – THE JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE
With this race having been run only twice in the past, we don’t have any historic trends to look at. Dynaste is the current market favourite and ran a good race on the 30th November at Newbury. However I am not sure there is enough in the performance to warrant the current odds of 13/8.
Captain Conan beat Third Intention at Sandown in December and then again in Feburary, there is no reason that this shouldn’t happen again today which allows us to remove Third Intention from our list of contenders.
Of the rest Module is an interesting runner who has been showing steady improvement. He is rising in class today and that could be a concern but his improvements have been on heavy ground and he may find that he can go a bit quicker today. He has won 75% of his races but still has something to prove in this race.
Selection: I am going to be going for an each-way on Captain Conan in this race today.
2.05 – PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE
In 2004 this race was changed and the distance was reduced by one and a half furlongs. This changed the race shape and also spelled an end to the success that J O’Neill and J P McManus had in it.
Likely to be very competitive, Sam Winner has had a good race which produced good figures but has to run an extra two furlongs today. FIrst Fandango put in a good performance at Cheltenham last year and then followed it up with a better performance at Aintree. There is an extra four furlongs to race today but we can expect a decent run.
Holywell has been consistently improving and although racing against better horses could still have chance in a field of this size. There is though some place potential here. Action Master also shows promise but may prefer a better ground condition than is going to be achieved today and so will be removed from contention.
Stonemaster has put in some good runs, but has also shown to be quite volatile in his performance which is a cause for concern. This could go either way and if today sees one of his better runs then he could be a serious threat. However I am not sure I would be happy with putting my money on such a runner.
Another horse of interest is Jetson who put in an excellent run at Leopardstown at the end of December. If this can be replicated then there is every chance that this runner could be at the front.
Selection: Looking at the current odds I am going to have a dutch on Jetson and Sam winner with a place bet on Sam Winner and First Fandango.
2.40 – RYANAIR CHASE
An exciting race with a smaller field than most today.For Non Stop has been in steady decline and so I would not be happy betting on this runner, while Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run have not had a good race for a long time. Albertas Run however performed excellently at Cheltenham last year and could be being targeted for this race today.
Menorah put a superb run in at Newbury in February and if able to repeat this performance could be a serious threat while First Lieutenant and Champion Court have been consistent performers. Ghizao was beaten by Menorah in December. Although having put in better figures since being beaten, this is enough in a race with this many quality runners to remove this horse from contention.
Champion Court was also beaten by Cue Card at Kempton in December and Cue Card has since shown improvement and looks to be a very strong threat today.
Selection: A very difficult race to make a selection in and I am going to be dutching Menorah, Cue Card and First Lieutenant
3.20 – LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE
Since 1997 all but two of the winners in this race have been aged between six and eight years old. Not only that, but all of the winners have run between one and three times in the last 90 days. Applying these trends removes six runners from the contention immediately and helps to narrow down the field.
Having had a good performance and finishing in the last four in the first race has also proven itself to be a very strong trend. Of the remaining runners, Oscar Whisky and Oscara Dara have shown a significant decline in performance recently which gives enough cause for concern to remove them from our contenders list.
So Young has been performing poorly recently but at shorter distances, and this return to 3 miles could be in his favour. But, he has been beaten twice recently by Zaidpour and this cannot be ignored.
Smad Place performed well at last years festival and has a strong preference for the ground and distance conditions that he is going to be seeing today. However, he was beaten by Reve De Sivola at Ascot in December. Since then Reve De Sivola has been declining in performance but over heavy ground. This return to slightly firmer ground could be exactly what he needs.
Selection: I will be splitting my stake on a dutch across Reve De Sivola, Zaidpour and Smad Place. If place market odds are high enough then I will be doing a place on Zaidpour and Smad Place. I doubt that Reve De Sivola will have high enough odds in the place market to warrant a bet there.
4.00 – BYRNE GROUP PLATE
Another race with a lot of trends to allow us to narrow down the field. All but three winners have carried between 10 and 10-9 in weight. Applying this rule significantly reduces the field to just ten runners, including removing Domtaline who is a non-runner.
Of these we can remove a lot who have been in declining performance or have not run well recently. This includes removing Tartak has shown a preference for longer races and may struggle at this shorter distance.
This leaves us with Divers, Finger Onthe Pules, Kapga De Cerisy and Carrickboy. Of these it looks like Carrickboy is going to be suited to this race and could put in a good run after his race at Chepstow in January. Kapga De Cerisy has been continuously improving and if continuing to do this could be the one to beat. Both Divers and Finger Onthe Pulse show potential. In a race with this many runners the best advice is to generally stay away from betting but if you fancy having a small bet then these are going to be the ones for me.
Selections: I advise staying away from betting on this race but I will be dutching Divers, Finger Onthe Pulse, Kapga De Cerisy and Carrickboy.
4.40 – FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
This is going to be the final race for me today. The trends reveal that we want to look for runners that are rated more than 120 as all but two winners have had a higher rating. Five and six year olds have never won this race although having twenty one runners and having at least five career wins and coming in the top three last time out are also strong.
Applying these trends reduces the field to ten runners, but we still need to reduce it further. Removing those that look not to have the class to compete today brings us to seven runners and there is one runner, Saint Are, to remove who hasn’t put in a good race for a very long time.
Of those remaining, Relax is a very consistent runner. The conditions suit and he could be the one to beat. Sunny Ledgend has been running well recently but could find this distance just a bit to far to take the winning place. Super Duty has also been performing well but there is some concern over whether he will be able to reach the performance of Relax in this race.
Richard’s Sundance beat Relax at Sandown in Feburary and so can’t be ignored. However previous races are not as consistent. If he can can come back to this form then there is a chance. Either way he is likely to put in a strong race. Prince Of Pirates cannot be ignored and although being pulled up two races back, he is coming back to conditions that are going to suit and could be a strong threat.
Selection: Another very competitive race and I am going to be dutching Relax, Richard’s Sundance and Prince Of Pirates.It may also be possible to get good enough odds on these to do an each-way dutch which I would recommend if possible.
Let me know what you think and who your going to be backing by leaving a comment below.