However for those who understand the power of impact values a complete knew way of analysing factors in sports betting will open up for you.

This technique can be applied to any sports where you have ratings or factors.

Let me explain how you calculate an impact value first and then I will explain why they are so useful.

To calculate an impact value you are going to need some historical data for whatever factor you want to analyse. A factor does not have to be a figure which has been created, like a speed rating, but can also be a certain set of conditions. My examples will be from horse racing but this can be applied to any sport.

By a set of conditions I mean that you may consider…

Horses who won last time out at the same course

or

Horses who didn’t win but finished within 3 lengths of the winner in their last 3 races

To calculate the impact value we use the sum…

% of winners with factor / % runners with factor

For our first example we would take some historical data, e.g. the last 6 months, and from that we would find all the horses that won last time out at the same course. If we have 10000 runners in our historical data, 1000 won last time out at the same course and of these 250 won then we know that…

250 winners from 1000 with our factor = 25% or 0.25

1000 runners with our factor from 10000 runners in the data = 10% or 0.10

We can now put these figures into our sum…

0.25 (% of winners with factor) / 0.10 (% of runners with factor) = An Impact Value of 2.5

That’s great but what does it mean?

This means that these runners win 2.5 times more than they should!

Don’t mistake that for meaning that these selections will make a profit. It doesn’t. But it does mean that these runners are going to win 2.5 times more than you would expect them to based on random chance.

If you find this out for a few different horses then you can begin to find runners which are hugely more likely to win than they should.

Next I am going to show you how you can change the calculations of the impact value to make it an even stronger measurement.

We have now passed the half way point of the 2011/2012 English season which provides a nice opportunity to compare the season so far with last season in terms of the percentage of games won by home teams, and look at how some teams are performing in their own right.

You would generally expect a team to win more games at home than away from home, there are a number of reasons for this including…

• Familiarity with the pitch
• Home support (or hostility toward the away team) adding a psychological edge.

Here are the home win rates for the top 4 tiers of English football for last season and this season (so far).

English Premier league 2010/2011 – 47%

English Premier league 2011/2012 – 41%

English Championship 2010/2011 – 45%

English Championship 2011/2012 – 46%

English League One 2010/2011 – 45%

English League One 2011/2012 – 38%

English League Two 2010/2011 – 41%

English League Two 2011/2012 – 42%

The first point to note is that the average home win rate for the top 3 tiers of English football was around the 46% mark for the 2010/2011 season, with the 4^th tier (League Two) slightly lower at 41%.

The next thing that stands out is that in both the Premier League and League One the percentages are substantially lower this season that they were at the end of last season, 6 and 7 percent respectively.

These figures are important as they are relevant to both bet selections and available odds.

• When picking a team to back you shouldn’t place too great an emphasis on the advantage of playing at home when across the tournament that advantage is significantly diminished.
• When evaluating reasonable odds you will often find that leagues with high home advantage have odds that reflect this. It’s worth considering if the home team warrants any reduction in odds due to the trend of the league as a whole.

For these reasons you should also evaluate the team you are betting on and their home advantage (or lack thereof).

At the time of writing, Southampton are sitting at the top of the Championship on 50 points.  They have won 11 of their 13 home games but only 4 of their 13 away games (with 5 losses and 4 draws).

West Ham are in second spot (also on 50 points) with 7 wins from 12 at home and 8 wins from 14 away.  Their home win rates are 84 and 58 percent respectively.

Both teams have won the same number of games but Southampton have performed dramatically better at home than on the road, whereas West Ham have been fairly consistent regardless of venue.

Bearing in mind that this is Southampton’s first season back in Championship, they have performed extremely well, surpassing early expectations.  With some foresight you could have made a good profit from Southampton in the early part of the season when their home win odds were more generous.

On the other hand you could also have profited from betting against Southampton (or at least a double chance X2 bet) when they were playing away from home – they recently lost away to Brighton (0-3) with odds of 7/2 available for the home team and a few weeks before that to Doncaster with 4/1 available for the home win.

If you have relied on last seasons home advantage statistics when selecting your bets, then you may have found yourself not doing as well as anticipated on your Premier League or League One bets.

That said, if the averages were to even out between last season the current season (as they often do over the whole term), then we would be due a fairly steep increase in the number of games won by the home team throughout the remainder of the season.

This reduction in the rate of home wins in the Premier League is not true of all teams however!

Last season Man United were the team to back, they won 95% of their home games and would have returned a tidy profit if you had backed them to win each home game.  This season Man City have so far taken that crown with a 100% win rate at home which will have resulted in some nice payouts for anyone backing them repeatedly.

Ricky relies on facts and figures to find his selections using a knowledge of player, team and league statistics. Having had to visit multiple websites to get the information he started to compile his own statistics which led to the creation of his website SoccerBettingStatistics.com

I would bet that it is not often!

This comes from the concept that a good tipster or punter should be able to give a guaranteed tip. Of course nothing is further from the truth. Just for the record…

There is no such thing as a guaranteed tip!

I am not sure where this all began but it belongs in the same place as all the other gambling myths, the bin.

In fact there often multiple runners who stand a good chance of winning the race. Tipsters often reduce these to just a single bet by making the horse they think with the greatest chance the selection (because that is what most punters want) but in fact they would probably say that any of 2-5 horses had a very good chance of winning.

So what do we do?

We simply bet them all of course!

There are many ways that we can bet on multiple runners in a race but the most popular is called dutching and should be considered seriously by all punters. Dutching allows you to spread your stake across all the runners that you think have a strong chance of winning the race.

Now I am not going to look into the calculations of dutching this week but let me know if you would like me to and I shall go into more detail on it next week.

The important question to address today is WHY do we bet them all?

• It helps you with your betting psychologically

For most people a strike rate of 20%-30% is very difficult to cope with on a long-term basis. Winning just 2 or 3 bets out of every 10 (on average) means that you are going to get some big losing streaks. Big losing streaks start to put you on edge and makes you bet irrationally. By dutching you can have strike rates as high as 80%+

This significantly reduces losing streaks, gives you more confidence and allows you to enjoy your betting more.

• Smaller downswings

By reducing losing streaks you will also be getting much smaller downswings in your bankroll. Again this is good for betting moral.

• More betting action

Once you decide you can bet on multiple horses it means that far more races become available to you. You are no longer looking for the elusive single runner in a race that is likely to significantly outperform others.

Betting in more races keeps you busy and allows you to look at your betting as a business rather than getting fixated on the results of just one or two races.

• Big turnover increase

This is slightly dependent on how you bet but once you are more experienced the ability to bet more than one horse in a race can significantly increase your turnover. An increase in turnover will see your bankroll being able to increase at a much faster rate so we want to have as high a turnover as possible.

There is no good reason not to bet multiple runners in a race when you think they all have a good chance of winning and offer value. If you are not already using multiple runner betting in your portfolio then you should seriously consider looking at it.

He was telling me about the sheer knowledge of horse racing that these guys have. Of course I wouldn’t expect anything less, after all they are presenting horse racing programmes!

However there knowledge is very traditionally British!

What I mean by this is that they approach horse racing from an enjoyment of the sport rather than a business. If you ask the majority of these guys if they bet then the answer will be ‘rarely’.

Why?

Because they can’t make a profit. They may know everything about horse racing as a sport but they know nothing about horse racing as a profitable betting medium.

Yet every day thousands of punters listen to their advice and take their forecast odds to be gospel!

If I gave you advice about oil shares and then admitted that I knew nothing about how the oil market worked but I knew everything about how oil was made would you take it?

Of course not!

So why take it from racing presenters.

This brings me to the second point of this article. There are two types of people, those who love horse racing as a sport and those who love it as a way to make a lot of money from betting.

These are two very different types of people and rarely do they cross-over. This isn’t to say that pro-bettors on horse racing don’t enjoy the sport, they do but it is  very secondary to the true business of making money.

Let me explain why these two types of people are so different…

If you main love is for the sport then you are going to be focusing on the horses, trainers and jockeys. Names are going to be important to you, knowledge of pedigrees will make a big impact and you will be interested in the intricacies of all aspects of a race.

When horse race betting is your business then ultimately all that matters are figures. Of course you are going to be interested in the same things as those who love sports but you will be looking at them very differently. The intricacies will be looked at from a point of view ‘Can I rate this or analyse it in a methodical way to improve my bottom line’. If the answer is ‘no’ then the interest for it has gone.

To be at the top of the game as a pro-bettor all that matters is increasing your bottom line, nothing else.

Once you have mastered that you can then come back to the sport and enjoy it once more but until that time focus on the right thing is key, and as a profitable bettor the only right thing is profit.

I hope that you had a good New Years eve party and you enjoyed the racing on New Years day. Today I thought I would take a bit of different approach and look at a finding a selection in a race based on some unique features inside the Race Advisor members area.

The race we are going to take a look at is the 12:15 Southwell. This race is a 5 furlong sprint race and I am going to use what is known as a speed bar. A speed bar projects the amount of speed improvement a horse is going to make.

It is most effective in sprint races where speed is an incredibly strong factor. I have a slightly different approach to most people when finding selections. This is because I believe that most people are trying to find selections the wrong way.

Are you trying to find the winner in the race?

If you answered Yes to this question then I would suggest that you are looking at races in the wrong way. After all finding the winner is incredibly difficult. Follow what I am about to show you and you will find your punting much easier.

As a punter you should actually be looking to…

1. Find any horses that cannot win and remove them from your list
2. From the remaining horses find any that are particularly strong
3. From these look for any that could be offering very good odds based on how likely you think their prospect of winning is

These are the three steps that you should be looking to achieve when you handicap a race. These 3 steps are completely different to 99% of the punters out there.

Strangely enough, 99% of punters lose their money!

Back to the 12:15 at Southwell today.

Screenshot from Race Advisor members area

Step 1

Our speed bars indicate that there are some runners which are significantly improving in speed and others which are declining. If we take away the decliners of Divertimenti, Fear Nothing and Georgous Goblin we have already removed horses who are declining.

Under each runners name we also have a W which stands for Winning Strike Rate for that horse. Would you want to bet on a horse that has never won? Me neither! This would remove Tancred Spirit and Striking Willow, however since Striking Willow has such a big speed improvement we shall keep him in and remove Tancred Spirit only.

Finally would you want to bet on a runner that has not had a good race (GR) for over a year? I didn’t think so. This removes Egyptian Lord, Flow Chart and Skylla.

In just a few minutes we have cut the field down to just 5 potential runners.

Sometimes the horses we remove in this step will win, unfortunately that is just the nature of the business. What is important is that we are not risking our money on them!

Step 2

The particularly strong horses using the speed bars are Striking Willow, Steel City Boy and Argentine. In terms of recent performance we must also include Nafa.

Step 3

We now have four horses and must decide on how to bet them. Here is the run down…

Striking Willow – Yet to win, which is a concern, but improved massively in speed bar in the last race and if this happens again is a potential winner.

Steel City Boy – Massive speed bar improvement in the last race and has been performing well recently, could put in a good performance today.

Argentine – A good speed bar improvement and has run a good race recently. Hasn’t won for a while but has been fairly consistent for the last 3 months and has a good overall strike rate.

Nafa – No speed bar improvement but has been running well recently and has a good overall strike rate.

Some possible ways we could bet on these…

Dutch bet as long as you can get a minimum of 20% ROI.

Choose the strongest and bet as a winner or each-way.

Choose the 2 strongest and bet to place.

Personally I will be placing a dutch bet as long as I can get a 20% ROI. If I cannot then I will remove Striking Willow as he has not yet won a race, and dutch the remaining runners.

This guide is going to improve your Over/Under score-line bet selections.

When betting on over/under score-lines in football matches it’s tempting to look for 2 teams with high/low average score-lines. For example, team A hosts team B, over the past 10 games team A has an average score-line of 2.8 goals per game. Team B has an average score-line of 3.12 goals per game.  At first this looks like a good bet for an Over 2.5 goal score line, however there are other things to consider.  What if team A’s last 10 results were as follows:

• 4-1
• 1-0
• 1-0
• 2-0
• 1-3
• 1-1
• 0-2
• 1-0
• 2-0
• 7-1

We can see that even though the average is fairly high, only 3 games (30%) resulted in more than 2.5 goals, and all of them from team A winning.

It’s a fairly safe assumption that the 7-1 victory was over a team with a fairly week defence, so what about team B?  If team B is consistently shipping 2 or 3 goals per game then the over bet is still good, but what if team B’s high score-lines are also coming from scoring rather than conceding?  You now have 2 teams that concede few goals, so the over bet is not so promising.  So as well as looking at average goals per game we should also consider the percentage of games with an over/under score-line and the number of goals scored and conceded by each team to give you a more realistic picture of why each team has the goal average it does.

It’s also worth considering the same figures for each football team when playing at home or away.  Some teams may play attacking football at home and score freely, but leave themselves open at the back and concede more readily. That same team may shut up shop on the road, concentrating on defence and neither scoring nor conceding many goals.

Another good indicator of score-line variation is the standard deviation from average – a team that is consistently involved in high scoring games will have a low standard deviation (indicating that their results don’t vary much from the average), a team that is occasionally involved in high scoring games will have a greater standard deviation.

The bookie will be well aware of all of these factors so the key is not only finding 2 teams whose outcome you believe you can anticipate, but also finding odds that represent a good value gamble.  You will sometimes find that Under score-line betting has more competitive odds on offer.  People are more likely to want to bet on an Over score-line, it’s a bet that when successful promises a game that’s exciting a goal packed.  Therefore its opposite bet (the Under) may need to be sold at better than expected odds to encourage bettors and balance the books.

Ricky relies on facts and figures to find his selections using a knowledge of player, team and league statistics. Having had to visit multiple websites to get the information he started to compile his own statistics which led to the creation of his website SoccerBettingStatistics.com

This has meant that all my bets have had to be researched and placed already and as you may know I generally like to leave any analysis to the last minute. However the data came through in plenty of time this year for the King George and below is my analysis. Take a look and then place your vote for which runner you think will win the race, if you would like to leave a comment as to who your selection is and why then that would be awesome!

The Race Advisor selection polls have proven to be very accurate in the past and hopefully they will prove to be again today.

There are 8 runners in the race and I am going to use a combination of methods to analyse the race. These methods are form reading, ratings and trends.

First of all ratings and form reading…

Kauto Star

We don’t need to say that this is a superb horse and is currently second favourite. There has been good improvement over the last 4 races and he has a form rating that is second highest. Recent performances have been quite varied though and this lowers are confidence of the form ratings. The projected speed is good but not outstanding and is certainly possible of being competed with. Going, distance and track preferences are of course superb but the main concern for me here is that there are now other runners who can compete.

Nacarat

Looks to be one of the weaker runners in the race and although improving this could be a concern. The projected speed is the lowest in the field and the best ever speed on the track gives cause for concern. Even more worrying though is that if the ground remains Good to Soft then this is certainly not a strong point for this runner and could cause problems.

Golan Way

The last good performance from Golan Way was at a significantly lower form class level than today’s race. Immediately this begs the question can he get to the level required today? My feeling is no! While his raw form figures indicate that this would be a possibility his average speed over the last four races has not been good enough. Even more worrying is his performance at Kempton generally, he clearly is not a fan of this track.

Diamond Harry

This runner is another who does not look to have the necessary ability to win this race. Average form figures and below average speed figures give concern all round. This is the first time at Kempton as well. However in the last 90 days he has run against some good runners and his performance has shown improvement with this. There is potential here but this improvement will need to continue at a high level and I am not sure that it will.

Master Minded

The last good race from this runner had an exceptionally high form class figure, however overall the form ratings have been in decline over the last four races. We could get an exceptional or terrible race and I am not sure whether I would want my money to ride on this kind of possibility. The projected speed is good but again this is a first at Kempton. All in all I would be wary with this runner but there is the potential to win.

Somersby

Shows a very strong improvement recently with only a small amount of variance which means we can expect a good race. A high projected speed figure along with an excellent track and going figure gives me some confidence. A good average speed over the last four races is also a good sign but the concern is that in the last 90 days the horses being raced against have been more on a decline than an improvement. However I think this runner has potential and could just pull it out of the bag for a good each-way bet.

Long Run

The youngest and least experienced horse in the race at just 6 years old and with 6 runs has shown massive improvements in performance at high levels of racing and seems to be continuing in that way. The lack of experience gives a lower form figure but this is to be expected. The projection of speed is good and he has been racing against some fast runners recently. Coupled with this is a strong preference on the going and track which definitely gives a potential contender.

Captain Chris

Again the form ratings of this runner has been improving and are not looking as if they are going to stop. However the speed projection is poor and while he could beat weaker runners I think he may struggle in this field. The preferences for the track are definitely there but not as strong as others in this race and I think that the improvement required is going to be too much for him. Especially when we take into account the significant increase in distance!

Now let us take a look at some trends for this race. In brackets we have (wins – places – starts).

Age

5yo: 1-0-2

6yo: 2-4-13

7yo: 3-6-19

8yo: 1-3-28

9yo: 2-2-19

10yo: 0-4-10

11+: 1-0-9

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners won on last completed start

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases

10 of 10 winners had won 2 or more grade 1 chases

7 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd over this CD

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has won the race four times with Kauto Star.

Henrietta Knight has won this with Edredon Bleu and Best Mate in the past 10 years.

Nicky Henderson saddled the first 2 home last season and has seen over half his 11 representatives make the frame.

Irish-trained runners have produced 3 winners from 7 runners since 2001.

Price

7 of 10 favourites have won and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.

Edredon Blue at 25/1 in 2003 has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

This shows us that based on trends we should be looking for a runner who…

• Is aged 6 or 7
• Won in last race
• Ran in the last 40 days
• Has run between 1 and 3 races this season
• Has won a race over 3 miles or longer before
• Have run in between 8 and 22 chase races
• Has won a minimum of 2 grade 1 chase races
• Has finished in the top 2 over the course and distance
• Has odds of less than 8/1

There are actually no runners that fit all of these criteria so we would need to loosen them slightly.

• Is aged 6 or 7
• Ran in the last 40 days
• Has run between 1 and 3 races this season
• Has won a race over 3 miles or longer before
• Have run in between 8 and 22 chase races
• Has won a minimum of 2 grade 1 chase races
• Has odds of less than 8/1

The only runner that meets these criteria is Long Run.

Long Run is clearly going to be a strong runner in this race and has every chance of winning and is going to be a bet as long as you can get odds of over 2. However I am fan of going for slightly bigger priced horses in this race for an each-way or place only.

Somersby would be my each way selection with good figures and good potential trends.

Let me know who you think will win by placing your vote below. It would be great to hear who you chose and why if you want to leave a comment as well. Have a great boxing day.

Horses cannot talk like human beings. If a great tennis player is having a bad run, he can at least talk to the press and give reasons as to why he is not playing well. Not so for horses who get to be judged strictly by their performance, and to a lesser degree, the reputation of the jockeys riding them.

The performance of a horse depends a lot on the training it gets. That is why, barring any injuries, some horses consistently perform well in different UK horse racing events. Using statistics can therefore enhance a bettor’s chance of placing winning bets consistently.

There are several kinds of horse racing events run in the UK. These are:

1)     GB Flat

2)     GB Flat Turf

3)     GB AW

4)     GB Jumps

5)     Irish Flats

6)     Irish Jumps

These race types also have sub-divisions. Some horses perform better in jumps than in turf races and some are just good all round. There are tables of statistics that can indicate the performance of several champion horses on the different turfs and race types. A study of 106,693 UK horse racing bets showed that you returned 92% of your stakes placed on favourites, while an each way bet placed on the top horses returned 91% of your stakes.

Considering that no further analysis has been done, this astounding statistical result shows how vitally important UK horse racing statistics are for any serious bettor who intends to make money on their wagers. As a popular data source website for UK horse racing succinctly put it, “if you want to see the future, look at the past”.

What makes up UK horse racing statistics?

1)     You can get information on the top jockeys.

2)     You can get info on the top performing horses.

3)     You can look at how certain horses performed in certain events or on certain tracks.

4)     You can get information on the horse trainers and how their horses are performing.

5)     You can get information on horse owners. Owners who provide for the proper training and maintenance of horses will generally be able to breed champion horses.

6)     Many of these results and data can be historically analyzed

Generally speaking, application of a sound knowledge of speed figures, long term UK horse racing statistics, knowledge of individual horse and trainer preferences as well as track knowledge will greatly enhance your ability to place winning bets consistently.

What is a staking plan?

A staking plan is a method of controlling how much each wager should cost.

Staking plans are varied and range from simple plans to very complicated ones. Just like in trading the forex or stock market which carries a high level of risk, a staking plan is usually designed so as to keep the chance of going bust to the barest minimum, using an acceptable risk-reward ratio so as to get a good rate of return.

Many bettors go into the world of betting with the wrong notion that it is all about being able to correctly predict which way a result will go. They buy into all manner of systems, strategies and betting alerts that promise to deliver the kind of returns never before seen in the world’s history.

Many of these so-called systems are sugar-coated to get you to spend your hard-earned money on the product. They never reveal the nasty side of betting which is that it is possible to go bust very quickly if you are careless. No sporting result is engraved in stone.

Not many people would have even remotely thought that West Bromvich Albion could take a 3-0 lead against Arsenal in the Emirates stadium in the EPL game that took place in September 2010, eventually winning 3-2 and shocking bookmakers and bettors alike, especially given the historical result data for matches involving the two clubs in the last ten years.

How about Chelsea FC losing 0-3 at home to Sunderland in early November 2010? That is how results can go. Without a proper staking plan, it is very easy to go bust.

There are always two sides to successful betting; making the right selection, and having a proper staking plan. Every bettor will place a losing bet at some time. No bettor can lay claim to a 100% win ratio.

Ultimately what makes the difference is being able to get it right more times than not, and making sure you stake wisely. Even with an impossible 80% winning rate, staking too much money on the losing bets can negate the winning ones.

So what makes up a good staking plan? Some of the key points below will give you an idea of what a good staking plan should include.

1)     Only betting with a disposable income for betting (income you can afford to lose).

2)     Using a proper proportion of this betting bank per bet, e.g. 1% or 2%

3)     Be disciplined! Do not attempt to bet larger amounts when you are on a winning run. You may be so unlucky to start hitting a losing run soon after and go bust.

4)     Don’t force a bet. Not placing a bet when the odds don’t look good is as good as a good bet. At least you will not lose money.

5)     Never try to recover your losses!

6)     Before you commence betting using a strategy, paper trade that strategy thoroughly and be sure it works according to your plan before committing real money to it.

7)     It pays to keep written records of your betting history. By studying them like you study a test material in school, you can learn from mistakes, get to know which strategies work best, study patterns in the sport you are betting on, and improve.

Get a good betting plan, stick to it, and watch your profits grow.