In preparation for Cheltenham week, where I will be providing you race analysis every day, I thought I would do a race analysis today for you using the graphical approach that is utilised inside Betting Speed Evolution.
The race I am going to look at is the 18:30 at Wolverhampton. This is a sprint race and speed is going to be key. I have filtered the previous speed ratings to only take into account races that have occured on All Weather ground condition, which is the same as todays race. Below you can see a list of all the information for every runner in the race.
So this looks like a lot of figures…because it is. As always I am looking to put in place a three step process…
- Remove non-contenders
- Highlight contenders
- Determine way to bet
The first step is to remove non-contenders and to do that I am going to look for runners that have performed significantly lower than the best horses in this race. We can do this quickly in BSE by hovering over a horses name and we connect all the dots for the horses races being displayed.
As you can see for Busy Bimbo, it is immediately apparent that this horses level is significantly below the best performances from the runners in this field. You can do this by hand using speed ratings from any source and creating an average and removing the worst performers or those declining. Doing this we can remove Sophie’s Beau, Bond Blade and Busy Bimbo.
This actually looks to be a competitive race and there are a number of runners that have strong potential. Now we want to find the horses that have good potential to contend in this race.
Rightcar and Fantasy Fighter have been performing against the toughest competition recently but Rightcar has not had a good race for 152 days which gives us some concern even though he has the strongest preference for the track. This preference is followed by good preferences for the track from Ches Jicaro, Miserere Mei and Fantasy Fighter.
Fantasy Fighter, Ches Jicaro and Rightcar have had the best average performances on All Weather races. But, Miserere Mei has had the best average performances over the last 45 days and put a good race in just 10 days go indicating that their is strong potential today. Fantasy Fighter has also had a good some very good performances recently although let down in the last couple of races.
Fantasy Fighter, Miserere Mei, Rightcar and Ches Jicaro have all been showing some improvements with Fantasy Fighter being the best overall. As you can see these have got the best points which makes them our contenders while Deveze and Chateau Lola are not non-contenders but we don’t expect them to perform to a strong enough level unless something unexpected occurs.
Looking at the markets Rightcar is currently 9/2 which seems to be too low for me, so I will be removing him from my wager. Miserere Mei is current market favourite and although not offering much value I wouldn’t want to bet on the race without including him, Ches Jicaro also looks to be about the right price. The value wager looks to be on Fantasy Fighter who is currently 5/1 which would be a good each-way bet.
Depending on your risk levels you may want to dutch these three runners, bet each-way on Fantasy Fighter and have a saver on Ches Jicaro and Miserere Mei for no loss if either of them win, just have the saver on Miserere Mei or just do the each-way on Fantasy Fighter. For me, in this race, I will be going for an each-way on Fantasy Fighter.
Let me know how you will be betting by leaving a comment below.