Friday , 12 September 2014
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How To Use The Racing Post Race Predictor

How To Use The Racing Post Race Predictor

Today I want to look at a tool that the Racing Post provide on their betting site at http://betting.racingpost.com/

It’s called the Race Predictor and it’s actually available in other formats on different sites who get their racing data from the Racing Post.

To use it you start by selecting your race at the top:

RPPredictor1

Then once you’ve chosen your race you can click the Run The Race button to start the simulation.

RPPredictor2

During the simulation you will see horses running towards the front of the field and you will end up with something similar to:

RPPredictor3

There is one clear horse in the above race. But, not everything is as it seems and we can use this tool to become a much more useful, and accurate, indicator of where to place our bets.

I would suggest only using this tool to find the strongest contenders in the race and from there I would look further into their form.

To do this you need to start by pressing the Adjust Parameters button:

RPPredictor4

Once you’ve pressed this button a panel will slide up from the bottom like in the image below.

RPPredictor5

You can see that there are different factors that are going into the simulation and you can apply different weights for the factors.

This is the key to using this tool.

Let’s start by considering the race conditions of the race.

RPPredictor6

We can see that this race is a Class 5 Chase Handicap being run over 2 miles at Southwell.

In chase races the distance and going is important. In the parameters I would put Going at 5 and Distance at 4.

Trainer Form I think is over-weighted at 3 and I would drop that down to 1.

Recent Form I would drop down to 2 as runners generally have longer layoffs in distance races, and I would leave ability at 3.

Then, we press the Re-Calculate Prediction button again. Having done this our finish positions look like:

RPPredictor7

Okay this looks different so let’s compare them side by side:

RPPredictor8

We can see that the biggest difference has been made to the back two. The predicted winner, The Absent Mare, is still in the same position. Fiftyonefiftyone has moved a tiny amount forwards and Barrison and Carobello have moved closer to the front of the field.

Now we’re going to run the simulation six times. Each time we will have one parameter set to max and the others turned off. Here are the results…

RPPredictor9

Looking at this we can see some very interesting information.

The Absent Mare is at the front of the field for every simulation except Trainer Form. As you know I personally put this into a lower weighting so that wouldn’t worry me too much.

All horses are similar in their ability over Distance and Going so there is unlikely to be an edge to be found there.

The only horse with decent Recent Form is The Absent Mare.

In the Ability the horses contesting are Fiftyonefiftyone, Barrison and Carobello. In Course the only horse contesting is Fiftyonefiftyone.

We’ve now got a good overview feeling of this race. We can discount JajJa De Jau and Danby’s Legend based on this predictor.

However we then go to the race card and look into the form of these runners. Any that we’ve discounted which are at the top-end of the market we need to bring back into consideration.

In summary this can be a useful tool to visually, and quickly, find the runners which are likely to be the strongest contenders in a race. From there we can look into their form before deciding on who we are going to place our bet.

About Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

14 comments

  1. This is great combined with BettingEvolution as gives a much better visual “take” on a race.

    Many thanks Michael

  2. Very interesting Micheal but where is it? I cannot find it.

    Regards

  3. Michael

    I find trainer form more important than the sum of the other parts! It does not matter how well the horse is weighted, drawn, ridden and given optimum conditions if the trainer has his charges off the boil. Races are hard to win, the horse and trainer must be in a good place…

    Paul

    • Interesting Paul, I know a pro bettor who agrees with you. I started focusing on horses form and usually come from that angle first and I find the trainers have always been a less important factor for me. Having said that though, I’m a big fan of trainer patterns :)

  4. It’s at..Thebettingsite.com Tony

  5. The Cotswolds for the wife :)

  6. How about the Lake district. bril scenery and some elegant Hotels.
    Whatever you choose enjoy it both of you.
    All the best.

  7. If the horse has not got the class to compete in todays race or in the case of a handicap its not well in at the weights, or it does not act on the going, or stay the distance, then it matters not if the trainer is in form. I would look at trainer form as a bonus if all the other conditions were in place.

  8. Hi Michael

    Thanks for the insight into using the race predictor. Very informative.
    I would ask though how do I find this on the website. I have looked over Racing post and cannot seem to locate the race predictor. I would very much appreciate it if you could point me in the right direction.
    Cheers

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