Have you ever bought a betting system which tells you to look at the horse’s most recent finish position?
I bet you have. Heck, if I dove into all the betting systems I’ve seen over the years, I reckon more than 60% of them would have that rule.
But is it a good rule?
Does the fact that a horse came first or second in its last race, make a difference to how it’s going to be racing today?
Logic would say it doesn’t.
At least, not with that much simplicity.
If the rule was more like…
“Check the horse’s last race, and if it came first in a race that was the same class, race type, distance and going as today’s race, and the other runners were similar in ability, then add this horse as a contender.”
Now that would make more sense. But just because a horse came first, last time out, in some other race, doesn’t mean it’s going to be able to compete in a race today.
If I raced my horse against two snails, came first, and then told you to bet it in its next race because it came first last time out, would you?
Of course not.
But to back up my feelings on this here’s an article I wrote about it, with stats, a number of years ago.
It still holds true today!
All the best,
Michael and the Race Advisor team
P.S. If you want real factors and ratings, that are going to give you a real advantage over the bookmaker, the kind that makes you a real profit.