It’s very easy to over-complicate things in horse racing. In fact I could be accused of doing this myself. I often teach advanced methods and these can be complex, but you don’t need to have complex methods to make a profit. It’s harder to find profits using simpler methods but then the method is easier to use. It’s easier to find profits with complex methods but then the method can require some time to understand and put into practice.
Today I want to focus on using simple techniques to find winners and I’m going to outline one for you.
The reason that it’s harder to find profit with a simpler method is that it’s usually in use by a lot more people and/or it uses information that is used by a lot of punters. In order to make profits we need to have an edge, something different to the public. Just finding winners is not enough to make profits. While this may sound like an unusual statement to make, a clear example is betting on every favourite. It’s well published that if you do this you will make a loss, but this loss is not due to a lack of winners. In fact betting on all the favourites will give you more winners than almost any other single horse backing method.
What this tells us is that we need to focus on where we are going to find an edge, and we do this by using the knowledge we already have. Using a simple method we already know two things…
- A lot of people are likely to be using a similar method
- A lot of people are likely to be using the same data or ratings
So how do we go about finding our edge if everyone is doing something similar?
We do this by focusing on the one thing that most punters won’t be doing. The one thing that most punters can’t be bothered to do because it takes them too long or doesn’t give them enough selections. The one thing that can give us an edge.
The quickest way to find an edge with a simple method is to specialise. Look into very specific types of racing with very specific conditions. It is in these small niches that you’re going to spot angles that the majority of the betting public are missing because they’re too lazy to bother investigating that far. As a reader of the Race Advisor I know that you will be bothered, because you want to make profits.
Are you interested in using the Racing Post ratings but never been able to make a profit from them?
Well how do they fare in very specific conditions. If we look at handicap chase races over 2m4f and longer that are run on good ground only, at least one month into the season and one month before it ends then how do the Racing Post top-rated fare?
How do the top rated fare if they are at least 10 points clear of the next top-rated?
What about if we check to see which horses are improving or declining in these races and what the average ratings are?
These three questions have already shown you an area in which you will almost certainly be able to find a profit. Why haven’t I just told you where the selections are? Because we are lucky enough to have a lot of readers and if everyone started using it then it would lose its edge. Simple methods lose their edge quickly because the edge is usually small.
But I know that at least a few of you reading this will spend the time to investigate this further and ask your own questions. If you’re one of them then you’ll be the one who makes a profit from your betting because you are prepared to spend the time to find your edge and do something different to everyone else.
Let me know how you get on by leaving a comment below.