If you have been reading this blog for a while then you will know that the King George VI is one of my favourite races of the year. This is a 3 mile, class 1 chase race and I'm going to start by looking at some stats. Since Kauto Star has now retired, after winning this race five times, there is the chance for a new runner to make their mark in this race.
Let' start by looking at some of the stats from past races...
- All previous winners have raced in at least 6 chase races
- 93% of the previous winners have won 40% or more of their races over fences
- 93% of the previous winners have won at least 4 chase races
- 87% of the previous winners have won a chase race over 3 miles
- 87% of the previous winners won the last chase race they were in
- 87% of the previous winners raced in the last 37 days
- 87% of the previous winners were between 6 and 9 years old
Which runners meet these rules? Let's make a grid so that we can see at a glance which have the strongest profile based on these previous race trends.
|For Non Stop||X||X||X|
|The Giant Bolster||X||X||X|
If we count the stats that each runner meets we get the following scores...
|For Non Stop||3|
|The Giant Bolster||3|
The top two are Junior and Long Run followed by Captain Chris. This begins to give us a shape for the race. If we look at the horses that have won more than 40% of their races this gives us Riverside Theatre, Cue Card, Grands Crus, Captain Chris and Long Run. Both Long Run and Captain Chris are in our top stats pattern above which gives us extra confidence in them.
Using a contender strength rating Grands Crus, Riverside Theatre and Cue Card come out the best and using a ranking method we get Riverside Theatre, Long Run, Kauto Stone and Cue Card as having between a 52% and 78% chance of winning this race between them. Cue Card also has excellent speed ratings over similar ground condition as today.
Looking for improvement we can see that most runners have been improving, but Riverside Theatre has been improving the most followed by Champion Court and Long Run with Cue Card coming next.
I like horses to have had a good run in the recent past and of the runners we have mentioned so far the only runner to have done this is Cue Card.
As you would expect in this race, it is going to be very competitive but we need to make some decisions as to who we are going to bet on. We are not surprised to find Long Run is the favourite in the market and the current odds are 5/2 but I think I am going to take him on with Riverside Theatre and Cue Card. I will be placing an 20/80 bet on each which is 20% to win and 80% to place.
Let me know who you are going to be betting by leaving a comment below.