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Nap Investor Review

Nap Investor is a tipster service provided by Nathan Price and is available through the Winning Information Network.

Here’s the link to the webpage advertising this service

There’s no need for me to repeat too much from the sales page, but briefly, Nathan is “an experienced racing fan who has been working with a network of other racing professionals to unleash one of, if not the very best Win Bet Services available on the market today!”

I carried out a little e-mail interview with Nathan on behalf of our readers. Here’s what Nathan had to say:

    Q. Can you tell us a little more about your experience and history in the world of horse racing?

    A. “I have been interested in betting for nearly two decades and researched every conceivable strategy before settling on the style I do now. Though constantly seeking to evolve I’m certain my way now is the best way.”

    Q. Whilst obviously wanting to retain confidentiality about your contacts, is there anything further you can tell our readers about them?

    A. “There are very few genuine inside contacts worth listening to and I never discuss mine so next question!”

    Q. Your webpage gives some information about the strategy you use to make your selections. Do you use a set formula based upon the data or is it more an experience-based judgement using the information that you have?

    A. “I have my own ratings against which I build my own early price system I’m looking for glaring errors amongst the odds compilers which we punish them for with devastating consequences for them and huge profits for us”

    Thanks for the responses, Nathan.

There are two subscription options: a four-week option for £57 (plus 20% vat = £68.40 every 28 days) or a ninety-day subscription for £99 (plus 20% vat = £118.80 every 90 days). Payment can be made through PayPal or Moneybookers.

Subscribers get the daily tips via email by 11am and there is also an online members’ area where you can see that day’s tips. Nathan gives between one and four tips per day.

Here are his results, proofed to the Winning Information Network:

NapInvestor1

 

This is a pretty impressive record, but obviously there are a couple of periods where the profit flattens out. On the sales page Nathan is honest enough to say that his service does have some losing days. As you can see above there are a couple of losing months over the 12-month period.

How does the above compare to our own number crunching analysis?

In the period from Sept 2014 to mid-August 2015, Nathan’s tips have produced 328 winning bets out of 1,190 bets with 54 Non-runners, which is an impressive 28.9% strike rate. The longest winning sequence is 8 bets and the longest losing sequence is 28 bets (in March 2015). At the odds advised by Nathan the average odds are 7.13 and the average winning odds are 5.10, so he does choose some good priced winners.

 SPBetfair SPAdvised OddsBOG
 ProfitROI ProfitROI ProfitROI ProfitROI
Flat Stakes£256.3223% £346.5731% £436.0938% £531.4247%
Advised Stakes£1,077.3625% £1,401.3032% £1,682.4838% £2,035.0046%

The above table is based upon a £1 stake per point stake advised. From this table of results we can see that Flat (£1) Stakes make a profit even at SP, so we have the basis of a profitable strategy. The best profit is with Best Odds Guaranteed Bookies. The problem, of course is getting a bet on with a BOG bookie at the best odds. Advised Odds return a good profit, but again the question is whether you can get a bet on at the odds advised by Nathan? At 11am (the time of publication of the tips), the odds are available, but if you don’t look until later what should you do if you can’t get on at Nathan’s advised odds, what odds should you accept?

Rather than flat stakes, we can see that Nathan’s advised stakes make a better profit. So it seems Nathan has a good feel for how strong his tips are, with, presumably higher stakes advised on the best bets. Nathan’s advised stakes in this period have been between 5 points and 1 point (£5 to £1 stakes).

For the twelve-month period, the subscription (using the 90-day option) would have cost £396 (£475.20 with vat) – so you have to factor that cost in.

Interestingly, if you look at the above table, you can see that the Return On Investment (ROI) varies very little from Flat Stakes to Advised Stakes. The Flat Stakes results are based upon £1 stake per tip. The Advised Stakes results are based upon between £1 and £5 stakes depending upon Nathan’s advice.

If you were to simply put £5 Flat Stakes on every tip the results would be:

 SPBetfair SPAdvised OddsBOG
 ProfitROI ProfitROI ProfitROI ProfitROI
Flat Stakes £5£1,281.6023% £1,732.8531% £2,180.4538% £2,657.1047%

The total amount invested would be higher than that using Nathan’s suggested stakes, but as the ROI is almost the same, the profit using £5 Flat Stakes is higher.

Personally, I’d use Flat (5 point or £5) Stakes and if I can’t get advised odds or the best BOG odds using multiple Bookie betting accounts, I’d take the Betfair SP, which has produced a good profit and Return On Investment (ROI). The Betfair profits listed in the tables above have taken into account a Betfair commission of 5%. Of course, if a BOG bookie is offering better odds than Betfair and I had an account with that bookie, it would make sense to place the bet there.

It certainly would have been possible to make a nice profit on Nathan’s tips over the past twelve months; you would just need to use some judgement over the odds that you take. You also need to use patience during the losing runs and need to take a long-term view, as you have to do with all systems and tips. Please bear in mind that the longest losing run of 28 bets would have needed up to 140 points at 5 points per bet, so a bank of 500 points or £500 would probably be needed to provide a safety cushion for losing runs. But that starting bank of £500 would have grown a year later to between £2,000 and £3,000, or more, depending upon the odds you accepted. It would, of course, also have cost you about £475 for the service.

Based upon the past twelve months, Nap Investor is a tipping service well worth following.

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About Rich Lyne

Rich Lyne
I am retired (more or less) with two grandchildren, living out in the wilds of North Yorkshire, where I just about get a good enough Broadband connection.I help my wife run her Internet second-hand book business. My education is in mathematics, statistics and computer programming. I designed and managed websites from back in the early days of the Internet, when the only way to create webpages was with raw HTML code.More recently I have done many Internet reviews of betting systems and betting software, following my lifelong interest in sports betting, especially racing and football. My main interest is in the mathematics and opportunities provided by the betting market, rather than form. There are fewer variables involved in the market than there are in form analysis. But both have their place in a punter's armoury.These days I specialise in a simple Racing system and do any research using only paper trading.

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