This time I thought I’d take a different tack on selecting a tipster to review.
Looking at our tipster review pages, we can see that “Overpriced Horse Tips” is the current leader over the last 30 days.
I thought I’d see how this service has done over a longer period. We have been proofing the results here at BetAdvisor.co.uk since June 13th 2015. This is not a particularly long review period, but the results are interesting.
Overpriced Horse Tips is a tipster service that seems to be independently provided.
Here’s the link to the webpage advertising this service
The site claims a profit every year since 2012 and claims “sensible”, “low risk” betting to level stakes. There are one or two win bets advised per day. Immediately one sees a different, less “salesy” approach on their website than some. And there seems to be a thread of common sense running through the approach of “Overpriced Horse Tips”.
The subscription cost is £16.99 per month for email alerts and £20.99 per month for Email and text alerts. Or yearly, the subscription costs are £169 and £209 respectively. A twitter feed is also provided to inform people when tips have been or are about to be issued. His tips are usually issued at around noon to 1pm for horses racing the next day.
This sets the tips up for the recurring problem of the odds obtainable being reduced due to withdrawals and other reasons.
For example here is a sample from the website’s reported results:
compared to our SP results:
I hope the numbers show up in your browser, but if you compare results from 7th Sept to 21st Sept you’ll see there is a sometimes large difference between the quoted odds and the actual SP.
So as usual the task appears to be getting odds as high as possible and as close to the quoted odds as possible.
I’ve done some number crunching on the RaceAdvisor.co.uk recorded results. Unusually for a tipster “Overpriced Horse Tips” advises flat stakes. So we can number crunch to flat 1 point or £1 stakes.
Up to the 3rd Oct there have been 140 bets, plus 7 non-runners, with 24 winners and 116 losing bets, giving a respectable strike rate of 17%.
There are several high priced winners even at SP, including a 17/1 and a 13/1 shot. From the graph below you can see that these high priced winners in Sept 2015 were crucial for turning a relatively large loss at SP into a small loss overall.
However anything that almost breaks even at SP is worth investigating. As expected, to Betfair SP this small loss is turned into a £17.81 profit over the almost four months we have been monitoring results. Before the good spell in late September the tips were making a £30 loss to Betfair SP.
However one should not discount the results because of this. Remember these results are to SP or Betfair SP and so are real and obtainable by anybody. In my opinion any tipster who can select winners at Betfair SP of more than 10.0 is worth respecting.
Here are the figures for SP, Betfair SP, Advised Prices and Best Odds Guaranteed Prices:
|SP||Betfair SP||Advised Odds||BOG|
|Flat Stakes £1||-£2||-1%||£18||13%||£69||47%||£73||50%|
As you can see the Return On Investment (ROI) at Advised Odds and BOG is massive! But as discussed in my recent reviews the question is whether these odds are actually obtainable. Nevertheless it is clearly worth getting good prices if possible, bearing in mind that the returns are good even at Betfair SP. So higher than this can only increase the profitability.
However I will now concentrate on the guaranteed profit by backing the selections at Betfair SP. Looking more closely at the Betfair SP results, the required Strike Rate, to make a profit, is 14.7%. So the Strike Rate of 17.1% is quite acceptable. The average Betfair SP of selections is 7.89 and the average winning Betfair SP is 6.78. The longest winning sequence is 3 and the longest losing run is 23 (in August 2015). So as usual you have to be prepared for barren periods and your Staking Bank has to account for this. To cover a 23 horse losing run would have depleted your bank by 23 points. So if you are betting to £20 level stakes, as advertised on the website, you would have lost £460. Some serious thinking needs to be done over what bank you want to have and over your estimate of your willingness to lose.
Given that the nearly 4 months subscription would have cost you £68 to £84 you can see there is room for profit here, providing that you allow a large enough staking bank and are prepared for barren periods. The ability of the tipping service to find relatively high priced winners, even at Betfair SP, should not be underestimated.
I give this “Overpriced Horse Tips” service a cautious recommendation and it is certainly a service to watch.