Today we see the Paddy Power Gold Cup taking place at Cheltenham and although the ground was declared Good To Soft in the overnight declarations, this morning is very much Soft. Without further ado, I’m going to jump straight into analysing this race.
I’m going to start by removing any runner with very high odds. Generally I don’t like betting on runners with odds above 29/1, this isn’t because they aren’t profitable but rather because they don’t win often enough. However by removing all runners with odds above 33/1 we remove 6 runners out of the 20 runner field.
If we look at runners under todays specific conditions then three stand out. Micheal Flips, Walkon and Aerial. Of these Michael Flips and Aerial performed in higher classes to achieve their performance than Aerial. Although with high odds, the Disengager also performed well under these conditions at Newton Abbot not very long ago.
I’m now going to look at runners that I don’t think have a strong chance of contending. Divers performance has been very average and recently has shown a steady decline so I will remove this runner as a contender. Triolo D’Alene has only performed on good going and the ground is definitely not good today, I don’t like to bet on a horse to do something we have never seen it do before and so I will be removing this runner as a contender.
Forpadydeplasterer will perform well on Good To Soft but if the going starts to get heavier than we can expect this runners performance to decline rapidly. One to keep an eye on with respect to the ground.
This leaves us with 11 runners that have a strong potential of contending in this race, and there is no doubt that it will be a battle to the finish line. Of these runners Al Ferof has put in excellent figures but not won since December last year at Sandown, he has every chance of contending today but there is some doubt as to whether there is going to be any value in his odds.
Nadiya De La Vega is an interesting runner. Came first in Cheltenham over the exact same conditions as today on the 20th October and this cannot be ignored, the class level was slightly lower but the figures achieved indicate that there will be no problem performing at a level that is required in todays race. This runner must be considered a very strong contender.
Micheal Flips put in some good performances earlier in the year and then declined, however recent performances indicate that todays run could be back at previous levels and if so then he is going to be one to watch out for.
We have already discussed that Forpadydeplasterer prefers good ground, even though there is strong ability to perform over slightly softer, the need to narrow down the field and the preference for slightly firmer ground is going to mean that I remove this runner from contention in the race.
Calgary Bay’s last performance proved that 4m4f was far to far for this runner. There is the possibility of returning to perform today but there are other runners with better performances and so I am going to remove him from contention.
Aerial cannot be ignored, the last race at Cheltenham over these conditions was excellent even though the finish position was second. Along with that there has been steady improvement. The same goes for Hunt Ball who has been showing steady improvement and could be a strong runner in todays competition.
In a race as competitive as todays any indication that a top performance may not be given must be used as a criteria to remove the horse from contention and Walkon has been showing decline, there has been a good rest period but I would want to see another race from this horse before placing my money on it.
It is going to be very difficult to select the strongest runners in this race. My preference is for Nadiya De La Vega and Aerial in this race who have both put in excellent performances and I think could make it all. Hunt Ball could also put in a strong race. I suggest that you bet on this race with Paddy Power who are offering 5 places in the race and I’m going to be betting on these three runners each-way.
Let me know who you’re going to be betting on by selecting your horse in the poll and leaving a comment below.
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