A few weeks ago it was the Cheltenham Gold Cup and now it is the John Smiths Grand National. What an exciting week ahead!
As with the Cheltenham Gold Cup I am going to look at some past statistics today and then will publish an article on Friday reviewing the big race at 4.15pm on Saturday in detail. There is a necessary large amount of data on this post, don’t worry all is explained under each table.
Let’s start by looking at the trainer’s performance over the last 11 years. There are a number of trainers who look to win these big races and by investigating the trainer trends we can sometimes find clues as to which ones they are.
|Trainer||Runners||Winners||Win S/R||P/L to SP||ROI to SP|
|A J Martin||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|A L T Moore||4||0||0||-4||-100|
|C J Mann||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|C R Egerton||3||0||0||-3||-100|
|D McCain Jnr||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|D T Hughes||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|H D Daly||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|J Howard Johnson||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|J L Spearing||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|James Joseph Mangan||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|M C Pipe||9||0||0||-9||-100|
|M F Morris||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|Miss Venetia Williams||5||1||20||96||1920|
|Ms F M Crowley||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|N A Twiston-Davies||12||0||0||-12||-100|
|N J Henderson||6||0||0||-6||-100|
|P F Nicholls||21||0||0||-21||-100|
|P J Hobbs||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|P T J Murphy||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|T J Taaffe||3||0||0||-3||-100|
|T M Walsh||4||0||0||-4||-100|
|T R George||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|W P Mullins||10||1||10||-2||-20|
I have taken out any trainers that have only entered into the Grand National once and haven’t won. As you can see there is still a big list and this shows, what we already knew, that the race is hugely popular. Rather than looking for the under performers with this amount of data we want to look for the over performers and I have marked these in bold. There are 3 trainers who have been profitable over the last five years and have a good strike rate. On the day we want to watch out for these trainers’ horses.
Like trainers the jockeys also want to win this race and of course some of them win more than their fair share. It is important to make a note of which jockeys these are because they are likely to be riding a horse they feel has a chance of winning and can pose serious threats, especially if they are teamed with a hot trainer.
|Jockey||Runners||Winners||Win S/R||P/L to SP||ROI to SP|
|A P McCoy||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|Andrew J McNamara||4||0||0||-4||-100|
|B J Geraghty||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|D F O’Regan||3||0||0||-3||-100|
|D J Casey||4||0||0||-4||-100|
|D N Russell||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|J A McCarthy||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|J M Maguire||5||0||0||-5||-100|
|J P McNamara||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|J R Barry||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|K J Mercer||3||0||0||-3||-100|
|M A Fitzgerald||4||0||0||-4||-100|
|Mr D England||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|Mr J W Farrelly||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|Mr N Scholfield||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|Mr S Waley-Cohen||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|Mr T Greenall||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|N P Madden||3||1||33.33||9||300|
|P A Carberry||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|P J Brennan||4||0||0||-4||-100|
|P W Flood||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|R M Power||4||1||25||30||750|
|T J Malone||2||0||0||-2||-100|
|T J Murphy||5||1||20||3||60|
|T J O’Brien||3||0||0||-3||-100|
Once again there are a large amount of jockeys and this is after removing those who have only ridden in the Grand National once before and not won. The reason I remove these jockeys and trainers is because their information cannot tell us anything. They have only ridden once and lost, you cannot expect them to win every time and there is not enough information to give us an idea of whether they have the possibility of winning or not. It makes sense to remove them so that we can reduce the information as much as possible.
I have marked in bold the jockeys who have shown a strong preference for the Grand National. The jockeys are reduced to ten to look out for when the final runners are declared on Thursday. All of these jockeys have a good strike rate and would have been profitable to flat bet on. You should be slightly wary of L.Treadwell as he has only raced once in the Grand National. While he won that race and has shown that he is capable of winning it, very often it can be easy to give to much weight because of this when the amount of information available is very low.
Now I would like to draw your attention to the age of a horse entering the race.
|Age||Runners||Winners||Win S/R||P/L to SP||ROI to SP|
These statistics are very interesting. The majority of the runners are between the ages of 8 and 11, in fact 85% of them. All of the winners in the last five years have come from horses aged 9 or 10. This isn’t to say that the winner this year is going to come from these age ranges but just to make a note that it is clearly a positive sign.
A couple more notes on past statistics are that 60% of the winners come from the top nine in the live betting market. Last year proved that this is not always the case, in fact 40% of the time, with Mon Momme going on to victory but is still an important piece of information in the puzzle.
Even more interesting is that the race has always been won by a gelding over the last 5 years.
All this is the start to our analysis that will be published on Friday, if you think I have missed any important statistical facts out then please let everyone know by posting a comment with the details.
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