Today I am writing about something a little bit different. This article has come about from a number of emails that I’ve received recently from punters who are using betting systems that use the Racing Post Betting Forecast.
Have you ever used it?
The chances are you probably have, after all it is used in a lot of systems. But, have you ever noticed that you are getting different selections to someone else using the exact same process?
If you have then you would be forgiven for being slightly bemused at how this can happen. However I can assure you that there is one reason for this and that is…
Yes the betting forecast on the Racing Post changes and when you are looking at it depends on what you are seeing. If you look at it the night before racing then you will often find you are getting a different forecast to the morning.
Now this is actually quite a useful feature and can be used in two ways if… you know about it!
The problem is that most people don’t realise that it changes.
So if you’ve experienced different selections to someone using the exact same process as you then the chances are it is because the forecast has changed and you looked at it at different times.
The big question is, can we use this to our advantage?
There is a way we can take advantage, and I am going to show you right now.
The first is to look at the betting forecast for the races you’re interested in as soon as it becomes available. This is usually the night before or early morning. At this time it is the Racing Post handicappers opinion of how the public will bet. But, there will also be some bias in there towards there own thinking of the best horses in the race because the market is not fully formed yet.
This gives you a slight edge and you may be interested in looking at the front few runners more closely.
Then come back late morning on the day of racing and go through them again. Have any of your chosen races changed?
If so then note the difference and which horses have had their odds moved.
Don’t forget that this forecast is to predict what the public are going to be betting on. So the odds are moving towards how the public is betting, not necessarily the horse that their handicapper thinks will win.
Now that we have this knowledge and we have found a horse that has moved, what do we do with it?
I always prefer to look into a race myself so in the morning I would look in detail at the runners in the front of the betting forecast. This also gives the benefit that if there is no movement you can still choose to have a bet if one of them looks strong enough.
But, if you have found one that has moved there are two possibilities:
- The betting forecast for the runner has shortened
- The betting forecast for the runner has lengthened
If the forecast has shortened and you also felt the runner looked strong then this can be an indicator that while the horse is likely to be a strong contender, it may not be offering much value if you were to bet on it. In this case you can look for an opposing runner to bet on or use this horse as a saver bet and place your main bet on a higher priced horse.
If the forecast has lengthened and you feel that the horse is a strong runner then you could be looking at a good value bet. The Racing Post handicapper thought it looked strong before the markets opened, and you agreed with him.