Tuesday , 9 December 2014
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Selections For Exotic Bets – Part Two

Selections For Exotic Bets – Part Two

In part one we covered the selection process, and went into understanding the concept, for pool betting. In part two, today, due to a number of requests I’m going to cover one of my favourite bets…

The PlacePot

If you missed Part One then you can read that here – http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/selection-of-exotic-bets-part-one/

The placepot is a bet where the first six races of a meeting are selected and we, as punters, have to find a placed horse in all six of those races to secure a return on our bet.

Lets begin by covering the staking of this bet and all the possible angles.

Say that you fancy two horses in each of the six races. You need to multiply how many runners you have in each leg to arrive at your final stake. In this example you would have two selections in each which would look like:

(Race 1 – 2 horses) x (Race 2 – 2 horses) x (Race 3 – 2 horses) x (Race 4 – 2 horses) x (Race 5 – 2 horses) x (Race 6 – 2 horses) = A Total Of 64 Bets

If you were to have a £1 per line bet, then this would equate to the bet costing £64. It doesn’t matter how many bets you have in each leg, you simply multiply the number of selections in each leg to find your stake. It’s possible to cover each leg with as little as £0.05p which would make the above bet, otherwise known as a perm (but different to the hair variety), would cost £3.20p. (64 x £0.05p)

The way the Tote settle the bet is to multiply the number of placed horses in each leg by our unit stake.

Let’s assume that we’re having a good day and the above bet saw us getting each of those 2 horses placed in each race. That would be 64 winning lines multiplied by our stake. So, at £0.05p this would be a total of £3.20 multiplied by the eventual dividend, which is provided by the Tote. If we’d bet to £1 stakes then it would be a total bet of £64 multiplied by the dividend.

Make sure you go through this a few times to so that you understand the makeup of the bet, because now we’re going to move onto how best to play it!

If you’ve got any questions then you can leave me a comment below ;)

There’s a ton of information out there about finding the selections for a placepot, but the way I play is totally different. At first glance it may look a little bit complicated but I urge you to persevere as it’s held me in good stead and I enjoy regular profits from the bet.

The first step is the selection process.

Remember, we’re not looking for the winner here but horses that are likely to place.

Not only that but, as explained in part one, we need to be looking for horses that the market won’t be latching onto to secure our value in the bet.

However we need to consider the favourite as a way of securing our journey through the entire six races required in the bet as well.

To begin look through the cards each day and find the ones that offer the most “playable” approach.

Contrary to common belief you’re not looking for the easiest card, you’re actually looking for the hardest card because this will inevitably create a bigger dividend.

Having found the card that you’re interested in you can then use the following to determine how the many selections to put in each leg:

5 or less runners (non-handicap) – 1 banker

5 or less runners (handicaps) – 2 selections

5 or more runners (non-handicap) – 2 selections

5 or more runners (handicaps) – 2 selections

8 or more runners (handicaps) – 3 selections

Personally I make my selections using a combination of form study and the excellent Racing Dossier (shameless plug there!!) and I establish my total number of selections.

Now, most people would simply put each selection into each leg, multiply the total number and stake the perm accordingly but… that’s not what we’re going to do!

I have set out an example perm below of how I approached a meeting at Ayr this week. I recommend that you always use the cloth number (instead of horse name) to save your fingers from typing too much ;)

Race 1 – 1400 – 3 & 6

Race 2 – 1430 – 2, 9 & 1

Race 3 – 1500 – 1, 9 & 2

Race 4 – 1530 – 5 & 7

Race 5 – 1600 – 2, 1 & 5

Race 6 – 1630 – 9, 1 & 2

The above would be a perm of 324.

(Race 1 – 2 horses) x (Race 2 – 3 horses) x (Race 3 – 3 horses) x (Race 4 – 2 horses) x (Race 5 – 3 horses) x (Race 6 – 3 horses) = A Total Of 324 Bets

A little on the expensive side and, although the dividend will be on the larger side, it could potentially return less than what you staked. To combat this you need to list the horses in terms of how much you fancy them. Split them simply into two categories. It’s simply the ones you really fancy and ones you moderately fancy.

So the list now looks like this:

Race 1 – 1400 – 3 & 6

Race 2 – 1430 – 2 & 9 & (1)

Race 3 – 1500 – 1 & 9 & (2)

Race 4 – 1530 – 5 & (7)

Race 5 – 1600 – 2 & (1) (5)

Race 6 – 1630 – 9 & (1) (2)

The ones in the brackets are ones that I moderately fancy but still want to be covering. If we were to now only include the ones that we really fancy then the perm would be reduced to just 8 lines. But, we’ll be missing out on a lot of value by not covering the other horses.

So far so good.If you need to re-read the last section to make sure you fully understand it then go ahead because…

Now we’re getting to the really good stuff!

Get your head around what I’m about to share and you’ll massively reduce your stakes and increase the value in your placepot bet 10 fold.

In the first race at there were two selections we strongly fancied, so these will be entered into on every placepot bet that we will be creating. That means horses 3 & 6 will be placed on every bet.

In the second race there are another two that we fancy strongly but one that we only moderately fancy. Therefore we want to cover the first two in as many bets as possible but still cover the number 1 horse. The same applies to race 3 and so on and so forth.

Okay, so how do yougo about calculating all of this?

We do it by placing multiple placepot bets.

The first race has just the two horses to be covered and both are strongly fancied, so that is just one combination because we want all strongly fancied horses to be in every bet.

The second race has another two strongly fancied horses but, a further one horse that’s moderately fancied to cover. This gives us two combinations. The strongly fancied horses which will go in every bet and the moderately fancied horse which will only go in some bets.

The third race also has two strongly fancied horses and one moderately, so we have the same two combinations. But, there were two combinations from race two and each of those needs to be used in the two combinations for race three.

In race 4 we  have one strongly fancied selection and one moderately fancied selection. Because we only have one of each this is just one combination.

Race 5 sees one strongly fancied selection and two moderately fancied, so like race two and three this is another two combinations.

The last race sees the same as Race 5.

Let’s look at the following flow diagram to make it clearer.

selections_for_exotic_bets_part_two

This now means that we will be placing 16 placepots. I’ve laid this out below –

Race 1 – 1400 – 3 & 6 (one combination) 1
x
Race 2 – 1430 – 2 & 9 & (1) (two combinations) 2
x
Race 3 – 1500 – 1 & 9 & (2) (two combinations) 2
x
Race 4 – 1530 – 5 & (7) (one combination) 1
x
Race 5 – 1600 – 2 & (1) (5) (two combinations) 2
x
Race 6 – 1630 – 9 & (1) (2) (two combinations) 2

= 16 placepot bets

Now that we know we are going to have 16 placepot bets, we need to determine which horses will be in each bet. To do this we will use two categories. Category one will be the strongly fancied runners and category two will be the moderately fancied runners.

In race 1 we have two selections in section one and none in section two. Section one horses will be in every single placepot bet and so these will be present in every ticket .

We start by making our first placepot bet with all runners from section one in it. This covers all of our fancied runners and would cost eight units.

I’ve put the bets to cover all permutations below. Section one = 1 and Section two = 2. The x is the multiply sign:

Bet 1 – 1x1x1x1x1x1

Bet 2 – 1x2x1x1x1x1

Bet 3 – 1x1x2x1x1x1

Bet 4 – 1x1x1x2x1x1

Bet 5 – 1x1x1x1x2x1

Bet 6 – 1x1x1x1x1x2

Bet 7 – 1x2x2x1x1x1

Bet 8 – 1x2x1x2x1x1

Bet 9 – 1x2x1x1x2x1

Bet 10 -1x2x1x1x1x2

Bet 11 – 1x1x2x2x1x1

Bet 12 – 1x1x2x1x2x1

Bet 13 – 1x1x2x1x1x2

Bet 14 – 1x1x1x2x2x1

Bet 15 – 1x1x1x2x1x2

Bet 16 – 1x1x1x1x2x2

So bet one has the section one horses from every race. Bet two has the section one horses from every race except race two where it has the section two horses. And so on.

Doing this you will cover every single horse from the strongly fancied to the moderately fancied over the 16 bets.

Admittedly it is a little bit complicated. But, once you’ve mastered this way of staking you’ll be already ahead of the average punter as it reduces your stake considerably and still provides plenty of chances for any of your selections to win and so increases the value in your bet.

If you have any questions then please leave me a comment below and I will get back to you.

In the next part,  part three, we’ll be looking at the trifecta and providing some more ideas on how to gain that vital edge with these valuable bets.

Eddie Lloyd

About Eddie Lloyd

I have been a professional gambler for 3 years now and spend all my days searching for "value" within Horse Racing. I'm also a keen musician and love travelling around the world.

18 comments

  1. Thanks for this Eddie, I am a regular placepot player and seem to be keeping ahead of the game but am disappointed when the returns are so small. I will study your advice here further and give it a go as anything to increase cover and reduce cost is a good thing.

    Thanks again I will bookmark this.

    • re Place pots: Thanks -Good stuff. Equally fun to select your own races and construct your own “placepot” but bet as an e.w.accumulator.
      At least you have control over size of return and chance of the win bet coming up too. I am also Interested in any recent info on or improvements to the old Australian Retirementt Staking Plan…thought up years ago by Barry Hughes.
      Very intriguing and challenging to operate (esp before computers)…so I have never got to grips with it. Your comments would be valuable!

      • Hi Josephine,

        Thanks for your comments. The only thing I would say about an e/w accumulator is that you are playing into the bookies hands unlike the placepot but as you say it is good fun. I often buy e/w accumulators or Lucky 15’s as fun bets as an additional birthday present for family members and place it in their cards ;)

        I am aware of the Retirement Plan and know how it works but if I’m honest it’s not a part of my portfolio. However I will speak with Michael and maybe we’ll do an article on it if it helps :)

        Have a great weekend,

        Eddie

    • Hi Tony,

      Thanks for your comment. If you have any questions please let me know :)

  2. This may be well off the mark and do correct if I am wrong. So basically all we do is pick all our horses and put them in a fancied section and an ok section or number 1 and 2 and then follow the perm above?

    Thanks for any advice or correction
    JJ

    • Hi Jordan,

      Not exactly no. The above perm was constructed because of the make up of the way I picked horses out in each race. If I were to have a different number of horses in each race then the perm would change.

      I appreciate that it’s complicated but once you’ve got your head around the way to structure it you’ll be cutting your stakes in half and still covering a lot of horses which is how we get our edge :)

      Any questions let me know

      Eddie

  3. Been betting Placepots for about 30 years.I think what you should also add is that if you check the live pools you can see how much you can win by the last leg.
    Then place lay your shortest price accordingly to guarantee a profit or at least cover your stake to be safe.
    Cheers

    • Hi,

      That is a method I personally use myself when the conditions are right :)

      I thought the above article was complicated enough so left that out. I will however cover it in another article for readers to take advantage of :)

      Regards,

      Eddie

  4. Hi Eddie,
    This sounds great & I’ve nearly grasped it…I just need clarification on one thing pls?
    If the first placepot has Section One horses (2 sel) then how come it’s only 6 lines?
    I thought 6 lines meant one selection per leg/race? That’s the only bit that’s confused me though, but relevant in terms of working out my staking plan!
    Thanks

    • Hi Gary,

      The first leg does have two horses in it however they are both strongly fancied so it becomes one line in the overall perm for the whole 16 bets. Of those 16 bets it does actually count as 2 lines for example the first placepot would be 8 lines. I’ve laid out how many bets in each bet as per below –

      Bet 1 – 8 lines

      Bet 2 – 4 lines

      Bet 3 – 4 lines

      Bet 4 – 8 lines

      Bet 5 – 16 lines

      Bet 6 – 16 lines

      Bet 7 – 2 lines

      Bet 8 – 4 lines

      Bet 9 – 8 lines

      Bet 10 – 8 lines

      Bet 11 – 4 lines

      Bet 12 – 8 lines

      Bet 13 – 8 lines

      Bet 14 -16 lines

      Bet 15 – 16 lines

      Bet 16 – 32 lines

      Which is a total of 162 lines as opposed to 324 lines which you would get if you just placed them in one perm! You’ve cut your stake in half and yet you’ve still covered all your horses.

      Any other question please let me know :)

      Eddie

  5. What a great idea the wife and I are going to Newmarket on Thursday
    and I’ll give it try.I like the staking plan idea.

    • Hi John,

      Thanks for your comment. Have a great day at Newmarket. I love that track and you should be in for a cracking day out! Have a few paper trades between now and Thursday to grasp the staking. You could then split the tickets between yourself and your good wife to tally up which ones are winners etc. Always good fun and a good feeling when you have a few winning tickets :)

      Any questions let me know :)

      Good luck for Thursday

      Eddie

  6. Many thanks for the lay out Eddie, makes more sense now! Could have some fun with this :-)

  7. How do they treat non runners?

  8. Placepots exist for a reason, they are extremely difficult to get and the rewards are often dismal. If your plan is used in small fields then the rewards are going to be limited and if in big fields all it needs is one ‘freak’ result and the betting slips are toilet paper. If you are going to do these bets then Matt Bisogno of Gee Geez has the right idea, stick to the Irish Tote with their 4 race pools and guaranteed odds.

    If I am going to do what are in effect ‘multiple’ bets then I would rather stick to lucky 15’s where there is some small return with one placed or win success. I know people who only bet mathematically and many of them are successful in the sense they are ‘profitable’ and get accounts closed. But to do it they have to spend almost every waking hour carrying out calculations and I don’t want to live my life like that. Nor do most punters.

    To be successful with small stakes you have to avoid all maidens, nurseries, etc and stick to handicaps. Religiously only bet in races with 8 or more runers until you reach 12 in number, 3 places giving a 1 in 4 chance of hitting the frame. If there are more than 12 runners do not bet unless the number reaches 16-17 for the fourth place keeping the ratio of odds to 1 in 4 of getting placed. Try and find horses at least 4/1 and preferably 5/1 or greater that you are convinced, for whatever reason are overpriced. For this you have to come to understand the way some trainers operate and think. Pay special attention to the smaller trainers who need three or four ‘results’ a year to keep them in business.

    Avoid the massive fields of prestige handicaps, just watch them, because when you have 25 runners and most bookies refusing to pay out more than 4 places what have you done to your odds of getting in the frame? Think about it.

    Above all try not to let the noise of the media overwhelm your judgement. I backed Muthmir (I know that goes against my ‘rule’ on field sizes but sometimes you break ‘rules’ if you are convinced about a horse) when it won and last week was not only against it but would not have had a bet until I read Richard Hughes in the RP. It was an e/w price so I backed e/w. As a pennies punter my stakes are decidedly small but a win is a win. I believe in small stakes because then my losses are small and when I do win I tend to win disproportionately to my outlay. The biggish wins then sustain my further forays.

    I hope what I have written makes some sense.

    Anyway, however you bet good luck to everyone.

    Philip

  9. Glenn

    Hi Eddie,
    Great article Eddie, I usually do a small placepot when I go to the track ands its good to see there is a way of reducing the cost without missing out on possible selections. I’m still trying to get my head around how it is done but I have gone through 5 races at Ayr, I know the placepot is 6 but I’ve missed the maiden which was the first race and just want to see if I have the staking correct as I’m still a little confused. My selections would be;
    300 – 5 (2) (8)
    330 – 2 (3) (1)
    400 – 1 4 (8)
    430 – 5 (1)
    500 – 10 (9)
    Which would be 108 different lines if I permed them all on 1 bet

    And the staking I have come up with is;
    5, 2, 1 & 4, 5, 10 – 2 lines
    5 & 2, 2, 1 & 4, 5, 10 – 4 lines
    5 & 8, 2, 1 & 4, 5, 10 – 4 lines
    5, 2 & 1, 1 & 4, 5, 10 – 4 lines
    5, 2 & 3, 1 & 4, 5, 10 – 4 lines
    5, 2, 1 & 4 & 8, 5, 10 – 3 lines
    5, 2, 1 & 4, 5 & 1, 10 – 4 lines
    5, 2, 1 & 4, 5, 10 & 9 – 4 lines

    This means I now only have 29 lines as opposed to the original 108 which is a significant difference. Is this how you would play these or have I missed any combinations?

    Glenn

    • Hi Glenn,

      Looks like you’ve grasped the concept. I must apologise as I can’t fully run through it at the moment as I’m on the road, however I will take a full look in the morning and confirm that it is indeed correct.

      Thanks for your comment :)

      Regards,

      Eddie Lloyd

    • Hello Eddie…don’t play the placepot often mainly because its difficult to get out even with a decent stake on it. I’d also be interested in Glenn’s placepot example above if it fits your strategy, because if it does this is a very smart way to do the placepot.

      Best

      Martin

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