The Dosage Method – The Alternative Analysis Tool

Guest post written by Ben Aitken from The Betting School

Dosage had been around since the early 20^th century when French researcher Lt. Col. J. J. Vullier published a study on the subject. Lt. Col. J. J. Vullier’s findings were subsequently modified by an Italian breeding expert, Dr Franco Varola, but it was not until the early 1980’s that dosage in its current form was developed.

This improved version of Dosage was conceived by American scientist Steven A. Roman, Ph.D. His new approach to Dosage was supported by solid statistical data and quickly caught on in America. Steven A. Roman’s analysis was primarily centered on the Kentucky Derby and later the other major stakes races in America.

Dosage explained – What are Dosage ratings?

This was taken from the www.pedigreequery.com website which is the most effective resource to obtain the figures from and is 100% free! What you should be concentrating on here is the top line of figures after the horses year of birth i.e. DP = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09.

Dosage ratings are numerical figures which indicate the probable speed or stamina capabilities of a horse based on the appearance of influential sires in its bloodline. An influential sire has been determined by its own achievements on the race track as well as that of its offspring.

The Dosage Profile (DP) is a five numbered figure relating to specific categories which is the totals of all the points gained from influential sires.

The Dosage Index (DI) is the ratio of speed points to stamina points from the DP

The Centre of Distribution (CD) is a figure between -2 and +2 which indicates the distance a horse could potentially be successful over.

Overall these figures should enable you to calculate what a particular horse could achieve in a particular race over a specific distance.

What are Influential Sires?

Without a strong and consistent pool of influential sires standing at stud the racing world would be a pale shadow of it’s current self. The Dosage Method is centered on these ‘influential sires’.

A horse’s Dosage rating comprises figures based upon where influential sires appear in its four generation pedigree…

At this moment in time there are 211 influential sires listed by Dr Roman, calculated using numerical analysis of their offspring’s abilities. The sires on the list are referred to as Chefs-de-Race (Masters of the Breed).

Chefs-de-Race Categories

All stallions on the Chefs-de-Race list are assigned to one or two of the following categories:

BRILLIANT – INTERMEDIATE – CLASSIC – SOLID – PROFESSIONAL

These represent Speed (Brilliant) through to Stamina (Professional).

A sire that has been placed in the Brilliant section is one that produces runners that shine at shorter distances. The appearance of this sire will improve the foal’s Brilliant score (the first column in the DP).

A sire that has been placed in the Professional section (the last column in the DP) is one that produces runners who should show their best form over the longer distances.

Depending in which generation of the horse’s pedigree it appears, the stallion contributes a certain number of dosage points to its offspring.

• 1^st generation (sire) = 16 points
• 2^nd generation (grandsire) = 8 points
• 3^rd generation (great-grandsire) = 4 points
• 4^th generation (great-great grandsire) = 2 points

Example of Dosage in Use

There are a number of ways in which you can use Dosage, my preferred method is the trends approach. This is where you look back at the previous fifteen winners of a race to ascertain the Dosage ranges that past winners fall within.

Let’s take a look at the following recent example, this season’s Lockinge Stakes, and narrow down the runners using Dosage.

Horse	DP	Total	DI	CD	Run Style
LORD SHANAKILL	7-1-10-0-0	18	2.60	0.83	CP
THE CHEKA	8-7-9-2-0	26	3.00	0.81	HU/CP
STIMULATION	3-2-5-0-0	10	3.00	0.80	CP
PIPEDREAMER	9-2-13-2-0	26	2.06	0.69	HU
PRINCE OF DANCE	4-3-9-0-0	16	2.56	0.69	HU
ZACINTO	6-2-14-0-0	22	2.14	0.64	HU/CP
OUQBA	7-4-23-0-0	34	1.95	0.53	HU/CP
KARGALI	3-4-10-1-0	18	2.00	0.50	CP
PACO BOY	1-3-8-0-0	12	2.00	0.42	HU

Included is each horse’s Dosage rating, running style and sorted in order from highest CD rating down.

The Dosage ratings can be found at www.pedigreequery.com and a horses running style can be found at www.racingpost.com. The Dosage trends for the past 15 renewals of the Group 1 race were;

• 12 of the last 15 winners had a DI between 1.00 and 2.27
• 12 of the last 15 winners had a CD between 0.11 and 0.63

Only four horses from the nine runner field pass both these trends –

Horse	DP	Total	DI	CD	Run Style
ZACINTO	6-2-14-0-0	22	2.14	0.64	HU/CP
OUQBA	7-4-23-0-0	34	1.95	0.53	HU/CP
KARGALI	3-4-10-1-0	18	2.00	0.50	CP
PACO BOY	1-3-8-0-0	12	2.00	0.42	HU

With the help of two quick Dosage trends we have narrowed the field from 9 runners to 4. Using extended trends analysis as well as Dosage, the conclusion was that OUQBA, ZACINTO and PACO BOY were the three to concentrate on. As the history books show PACO BOY stormed to an impressive victory closely followed home in second by OUQBA.

This is a simple example of how Dosage can be used to narrow the field

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