A few weeks ago I was invited by Betfan to host a webinar called Ask A Pro. The concept was that we would get three professional bettors and tipsters on the panel and I would quiz them with the questions asked by the audience. I thought that this was a superb idea. After all, it is can be very difficult to get in touch with pro-punters to ask the questions that you want answers to and so I readily agreed.
The webinar took place a few days ago and I am sure that some of you reading this would have joined me on it. That is all great, but what has this got to do with finding favourites to lay, and what is disparity?
Well towards the end of the webinar I talked about a method that you could use to highlight favourites to lay. It was prompted by a question I saw come in and there wasn’t time for me to give an example of what I meant, which is why I am writing this today. I want to show you exactly what I meant. If you couldn’t make the webinar then don’t worry, I have put a recording of it at the end of this article so you can watch it at your leisure.
The method that I am about to describe should not be used on its own. It should be used in conjunction with your own analysis. If you have a favourite you think could be a good lay then this method can help to confirm your suspicions.
In order to use this method you will need to be available to look at the Betfair market during the racing day. Go to the race you are interested in and you will see a screen similar to the one below. Please note that you should be doing this as close to race time as possible, ideally just a few minutes before, but due to having to take screen shots I am doing it well in advance of the race and so the markets are not completely formed.
You must also do this using the old version of Betfair because the new one has a bug that prevents the information that we need from displaying.
Find the favourite and click on the little graph icon on the left hand side of the horses name, as shown above. This will open a popup window on your screen like the one below.
What we are interested in is the Total Matched On This Event and Betting Summary – Volume. The current back odds of Goldstorm are 2.46 and we are going to work out what the odds should be based on the amount of money bet on this runner. To do this we do the simple sum…
Betting Summary – Volume divided by Total Matched On This Event
23,311 / 45,185 = 0.52
We then turn the result of this sum into odds by doing…
1 / 0.52 = 1.92
So we can see that based on the current money being bet into the market this runner should actually be 1.92 although the odds on offer are 2.46. Pretty good value at the moment, although this may change closer to race time which is why the closer to the offer you do this the better. Finally we want to find out what the disparity is.
The disparity is simply the difference between the odds we have calculated and the odds on offer. To get this we take the odds on offer and divide it by the odds we calculated. e.g.
2.46 / 1.92 = 1.28
Anything above one indicates how much better the odds on offer are than what we calculated and anything lower than one indicates how much worse the odds on offer are. It doesn’t matter which way this goes but what we are looking for is for this number to be 1.30 or higher, or 0.70 or lower.
If the horse is favourite and meets this criteria then these runners have proven to be very bad value to bet on to win. What this means for us is that if our own research indicates this horse may be a good lay we now have excellent confirmation that this is a good bet. Alternatively if we have another runner in the race that we feel is stronger we can bet on this runner to win with more confidence.
As I mentioned in the beginning, this is designed to be used in conjunction with your other form reading methods but if you do it will become a powerful part of deciding whether to place a bet on the favourite or not.
If you didn’t get a chance to see the Ask A Pro webinar then I have, courtesy of Betfan, put a copy of it below and I strongly suggest you grab a cup of tea and take the time to watch it. It is one of the few times I have seen so many pros in the same room together prepared to answer questions on how they bet!