With the snow coming down across the country, it makes sense to focus your analysis on All Weather.
After all, it’s called All Weather for a reason 😉
The 15:15 at Chelmsford is one of the most valuable races of the day, although with a winners prize fund of £5,434 that’s not saying much!
It’s an interesting race because the market favours Gala Celebration. This is primarily due to the horse’s last race where it finished second from a bad position.
However, Profit Recall gives us something extra to think about by telling us that there’s a 95% chance Tellovoi, Frozen Lake or Hipz will win the race.
(and all three are currently value bets!)
But as always, you should never take things at face value, so let’s dig a bit further.
VDW Maximiser confirms this opinion, although gives the Win Race Suitability a bit low at just over 70%, and the Place Race Suitability very high at over 97%.
A confirmation is good, but there’s still a few questions, so let’s dig a little further into these horses with the Racing Dossier software.
Using the RD Overview race card (which will make sense if you’re a member), it shows us that Frozen Lake and Hipz may be currently in a decline, but Tellovoi is looking as strong as ever.
Gala Celebration can definitely give the best speed over the ground and distance, but Tellovoi isn’t far behind, and both are improving.
With Tellovoi being a leader type runner, if he gets a big enough lead early in this race, it could be too much for Gala Celebration to catch up with.
Looking at the Betting Speed Evolution speed graphs for the race conditions, we can see that Tellovoi has been far more consistent than Gala Celebration under these conditions in the long run.
So how do we bet?
Personally, there are only two options for me to bet here:
1) Win Bet
2) Each-way bet
I think that Gala Celebration’s odds are too low considering that Tellovoi is a big threat, on the other hand, Tellovoi’s odds are high considering the potential it has to win the race.
I’m going to be placing an each-way bet, but I’m pretty risk-adverse so I’ll be doing what is known as an 80/20 bet.
That means I’ll be placing 80% of my stake to place and 20% of my stake to win on Tellovoi.
All the best,
The Race Advisor
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