Guest post written by Darren Hudson-Wood
The Qatar sponsored Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is run at Longchamp and is open to 3 year-olds and over, and run over a Mile and a half, its a Group 1 in status with a prize fund of 4,000,000 Euros
First held in 1920, it will be run in 2010 for the 89th time. Because of the war, it was not held in 1939 and 1940 and took place at Tremblay in 1943 and 1944.
The “Arc” is always won by a decent individual, with the last 7 winners being all top class:-
2005 Hurricane Run
2006 Rail Link
2007 Dylan Thomas
2009 Sea The Stars
So who will win it in 2010?
Below I will assess each horses chances in current betting order.
Behkabad current odds 7/2
3 year old french colt, has raced 8 wins winning 6 and being out of the frame just once when 4th in the french derby.
Whilst you have to respect this horse as he is 3/3 at Longchamp and is the main french contender at 7/2 its not for me with holes to pick in his form.
Fame And Glory current odds 9/2
4 year old colt trained in Ireland by the master that is Aidan O’Brien, he has raced 14 times, winning 9 including 4 group 1’s.
Fame And Glory should really be ahead of Behkabad in the betting, given he has one at the highest level and his Coronation Cup win is probably being the best form on offer in this race, beating Sariska,Youmzain and Cavalryman.
Planteur current odds 6/1
3 year old french colt, has run 7 times winning 3 and finishing runner up on 4 occasions so is a consistent and improving individual.
Best form to his name is beating Rewilding (English derby 3rd and beaten st ledger favourite) back in April but has since been narrowly beaten the last twice by Behkabad so no real reason to propose he can turn the form round.
Workforce current odds 6/1
3 year old colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute, lightly raced having run just 4 times but the imperious winner of this years derby.
A hard horse to weigh up, as his debut and derby performance show this horse to be top class, however the Dante (excuses as bit went through mouth) and King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes raise slight doubts as to what horse will turn up on the day and with it basically being a 50/50 chance of what horse turns up on the day,could not back him with any confidence especially in a race of this nature.
Cape Blanco current odds 7/1
3 year old colt also trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien, he run 8 times winning 6 including 2 group 1’s.
Hard to fault this horse at all, beat Workforce in the Dante, then went to France and was favourite for their Derby where Planteur and Behkabad both finished in front of him (however he ran no sort of race) came back and won the Irish Derby, Champion Stakes and finished 2nd to Harbinger.
So has some top form to his name and 7/1 looks a big e/w price, only worry would be the only time he has been well beaten was in France.
Sarafina current odds 8/1
3 year old french filly, she has run 4 times, winning 3 including 2 group 1’s and finishing 3rd to Midday last time out.
She is a classy filly and warrants respect in this race, however I would not fancy Midday to win this against the colts/geldings and with Safarina a year younger I feel she will struggle despite weight for age allowances.
Youmzain current odds 14/1
7 year old entire trained by Mick Channon, has run 31 times, winning 6 including two groups 1’s and has finished 2nd in the race for the past 4 years.
What can you say about Youmzain, he is one of my favourite horses, has run 4 crackers in this race and when you think of the horses he has beaten (bar the 4 winners) he has to come into the race with place claims at least.
Loves it here as the race is always race at a fast gallop and with the long straight provides him with plenty of time to hit top gear.
At 14/1 looks a good e/w bet.
Nakayama Festa current odds 20/1
4 year old Japanese trained colt, has run 8 times winning two including a grade 1 in Japan.
A late developing individual as his 3 year old campaign was fruitless but in 2010 has run 3 times winning 2 and just beaten in France last time out by Duncan.
Hard to weigh up his chances but would imagine at top 5 finish at best.
Duncan current odds 25/1
5 year old entire trained in Newmarket by John Gosden, he has run 14 times winning 4 including a group 2 last time out at Longchamp where he beat Nakayama Festa.
Should be ahead of Nakayama Festa in the betting as beat him fair and square last time out but chances in the race are also limited, would not be a patch on Fame and Glory Cape Blanco, or Youmzain at home but stays well so could run on for a place at best.
Plumania current odds 25/1
4 year Old filly trained by the french master Andre Fabre, she has run 14 times winning 3 including a group 1 when beating Youmzain this year and finished second to Midday last time out (beating Sarafina).
Whilst not having a profile for winning this year she does look a bit over priced, having beaten Youmzain (14/1) and Sarafina (8/1) this year and with her trainer knowing what it takes to win this race she is no forlorn hope.
Cavalryman current odds 33/1
4 year old colt trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, he has run 14 times, winning 4 including one group 1 and finished 3rd in this race last year.
Cavalryman is a interesting horse in this race, having some top french form to his name (albeit last year) and has run 2 most encouraging races the last twice.
Won’t win but can see him running a better race than odds suggest.
Daryakana current odds 33/1
4 year old french filly, she has run 9 times, winning 5 including a sole group 1 victory.
Classy 3 year old but has not been in the same form this year, has been well beaten by Plumania twice this year, and form lines for her last two races give her no chance with half the line up.
So one to oppose.
Goldwaki current odds 33/1
3 year old colt also trained by Andre Fabre, he has run 7 times, winning 4 the best being a group 3 at Chantilly.
He will like a fast pace and any cut in the ground but form wise has little chance in this race, was beaten 5l by Behkabad over course and distance in July and nothing to suggest that margin won’t be even larger on Sunday.
Victoire Pisa current odds 33/1
3 year old Japanese colt, he has run 4 times, winning a sole grade 1.
Another whose form is hard to weigh up, a grade 1 winner in Japan over 10 furlongs, went to Longchamp last time out for what I presume was an “Arc” prep and was well beaten by Behkabad and Planteur.
Would have no realistic chance of turning that form around-especially on soft ground and his best hope is trying to Nakayama Festa for home bragging rights.
Marinous current odds 40/1
4 year old french trained colt, has run 16 times, winning 4 best of which being a group 2 last time out.
A consistent sort but form is a long way short to win a race like this, his win last time out was not expected (a 20/1 shot) and perhaps flattered that day.
Midas Touch current odds 50/1
3 year old colt another trained by Aidan O’Brien, he has run 8 times, winning 2 the best of which being the group 2 Derrinstown Stud Derby at Leopardstown.
A talented horse in is own right by pace making duty’s await should he line up and you would want to be taking 500/1 not 50/1.
My predicted race finishing order (provided all line up) is:-
1, Youmzain 14/1
2, Fame And Glory 9/2
3, Plumania 25/1
4, Behkabad 7/2
5, Planteur 6/1
6, Cavalryman 33/1
7, Cape Blanco 7/1
8, Workforce 6/1
9, Safarina 8/1
10, Duncan 25/1
11, Daryakana 33/1
12, Nakayama Festa 20/1
13, Goldwaki 33/1
14, Victoire Pisa 33/1
15, Marinous 40/1
16, Midas Touch 50/1
If this was any different race on any difference course I couldn’t honestly fancy Youmzain to beat Fame And Glory, however we all know he loves this race, will be primed to the minute by Mick Channon (who in my opinion is a much under rated and under praised trainer) and with everything looking in his favour including his probably the easiest competition in the last 4 years at 14/1 e/w looks a good bet!
Of the rest Ive put Cape Blanco finishing out of the frame but would not surprise me if the talented and progressive 3 year old ran a blinder.
And I’m hopeful of big runs from both Plumania and Cavalryman and might just have a few quid on them each way at big prices.
Darren Hudson-Wood is one of the leading tipsters in the UK. Having been around horses all his life Darren has a breeding background in the racing industry. All his selections are made through rigorous form and pedigree studies and can be found on his website www.hudsonshorses.co.uk