This is the first Saturday of the new Race Advisor newsletter and the second of your bi-weekly emails.
Today I want to look at betting systems, and a slightly different way of using them than you may have thought of!
When we use a betting system we’re pre-conditioned to always bet the horses that the system selects. After all, that’s the point of the system, isn’t it!
But, have you noticed how a lot of betting systems work for a short period of time and then fail?
This is because the approach is made from AND, IF, OR, THEN statements.
IF the race has 12 runners or less AND (the favourite is odds-on OR there are joint-favourites) THEN we lay the third favourite
This approach is very rigid and doesn’t allow any adjustments for different conditions of races.
Usually, a system will look at “handicap” races or “all weather” races, sometimes it may go a little bit further into the conditions of the race but often not very far.
…every race is very different and the system isn’t making allowances for that.
Instead, it’s grouping them all together and then generally focusing on only the positive aspects of a runner.
This means we only gain a small edge from the system, and a small change can erode this edge.
The big question is… how can we prevent this from happening?
Unfortunately, it’s the nature of betting systems.
Of course, you can still use them until they start to fail, and then move on to another.
But there’s a better way…
Rather than betting on the selections from your betting systems, you can use them starting points.
The major issue with form analysis is that there are too many races and runners each day.
We can use betting systems to help us narrow these down and speed our process up.
To do this you need to apply the rules of our betting system as normal. This should leave you with a few runners as possible selections each day.
(unless you use a lot of bettings systems!)
DO NOT blindly following these selections.
Instead, we investigate them further, something we recommend everyone does with all our software and guides.
What you’ve just done by using the betting systems, is highlighted potentially strong horses in a race by focusing on the positives of a runner.
That leaves us to check the negatives of those runners and assess what the level of competition is like.
To do this open up the Racing Post (or your Race Advisor software if you’re a member) and run through these questions…
- What are the negatives of our selection and what could trip it up?
- Are there any runners that would have been selected except for one rule?
- How strong are these potential runners and what are their negatives?
- How likely do is it that your selection could get beaten?
Write down the answer to these questions on a piece of paper.
And I mean on paper, with a real pen!
Just a few words or a few paragraphs, it doesn’t matter how much you right. The purpose is to be able to visualise your thoughts on paper.
Next look at the current odds for the selection and convert them into a probability of the horse winning. If you don’t know how this article will show you.
If you think the horse has a higher chance of winning than the odds suggest, then it’s a bet.
In these four simple steps, you’ve gone from not knowing why a horse was a selection to understanding exactly why you’ve selected it.
You know who the potential threats in the race are and how much of a threat they pose.
You’re no longer basing your bet on whether a system selected it, you’re now betting if you think the horse has a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.
That means you’re finding value bets, and value bets mean long-term profits.
All the best,
The Race Advisor