Advice

5 Insanely Important Stats At Glorious Goodwood To Use This Week

Finding Winners At Festivals

Horse racing festivals are notoriously difficult to analyse. It’s not really surprising, given that they have some of the best runners from around the world competing for some of the biggest prize money available.

And Glorious Goodwood this week is no different!

Members of the Race Advisor Pro Members Club community get access to every single stat and trend that you need to find the winners at Glorious Goodwood this week (as well as our analysis and selections in every race).

Today I’m going to share some of them with you to help you narrow down your selections and find winners. When you find your selections, you should follow this festival staking advice to make the most profit.


Insanely Important Stat #1: Favourites Will Make You Money

Yes it’s true. Historically the favourites at Glorious Goodwood will make you a profit.

They have a 30% win strike rate and 60% place strike rate. More importantly… they’ve made +20.09 units profit over past meetings.

Usually it can be very difficult to make a profit from favourites, however it seems that at Glorious Goodwood that not only is that not the case, in fact the opposite is true!

Of course, most of these profits have come from a handful of trainers, eight to be precise, and here’s one of them for your notebooks…

Trainer Winners Runners SR Profit
Sir Michael Stoute 8 16 50% 6.95

What You Do…

Focus on favourites, particularly those that have come from Sir Michael Stoute.


Insanely Important Stat #2: Be Wary Of High Odds Horses

Everyone likes to get that high odds winner. It’s good for the soul and makes you want to shout with joy. But at Glorious Goodwood they’re not where you want your money to be going!

Horses with SP odds of above 18/1 have won a terrible 3% of their races!

From those figures, I don’t think I need to tell you that they’re pretty terrible bets.

What You Do…

Stay away from horses that look like they’re going to go off at 18/1 or higher.


Insanely Important Stat #3: It’s Not The Luck Of The Draw

Draw bias is supremely important in some races, and not as important in others. Here’s what the draw bias looks like over seven furlong races…

Quarter Wins Runners SR
Quarter 1 6 49 12%
Quarter 2 6 57 11%
Quarter 3 3 54 6%
Quarter 4 0 45 0%

Here’s where to go if you want to get all the draw biases for the main distances being raced at Goodwood this week.

What You Do…

There’s a clear draw bias towards horses draw in the lower half of the field, make these your primary targets!


Insanely Important Stat #4: Last Time Out Winners

They may have won last time out, but they’re not all they’re cracked up to be.

Last time out winners at Glorious Goodwood win 27% less than they should do, based on their odds.

Which makes them incredibly bad bets!

Here’s how you would have faired if you’d backed them in the past…

Wins Runners SR Profit
106 1011 10% -295

What You Do…

Be wary of any horse that has won last time out. Obviously don’t ignore a horse purely because it won its last race, but consider the amount of time it’s been since it won. Has it had enough time to rest, but not so much time it’s going to struggle to come back to a highly competitive race.


Insanely Important Stat #5: The Jockeys You Should Favour

If you like betting on favourites, there are three jockeys who you should be focusing on. All of them have made a profit when riding favourites. Here’s one for you to focus on…

Jockey Wins Runners SR Profit
Silvestre De Sousa 4 10 40% 6.08

Silvestre De Sousa has won riding favourites at Glorious Goodwood 65% more often than the odds on his runners have suggested. And that makes for an excellent value bet.

What You Do…

If Silvestre De Sousa is riding a favourite, then take the horse seriously. With a 40% strike rate you know he’s got a very strong chance of winning, and the odds are likely to be offering good value.


How Are You Going To Use Them?

Whenever it comes to using trends, they should inform your decision about a horse, but not be the sole reason for betting (or not betting) a runner.

They can be very informative, and there’s no doubt that they can make a big difference to your profits. However, by definition there are only a small number of runners that you can get from trends, which is why they should be used for informing your decision.

A quick way to shrink the field would be to not consider any horse over 18/1, considering how poorly they performed, and then see which of the remaining horses you prefer. From these give extra strength to any that meet a positive trend, and reduce the strength of any that meet a negative trend.

Of course, we can do all that for you, our complete analysis for today’s racing (along with selections) is already waiting in your members area.

Do you have any stats and trends that you’re going to use? Which are your favourite stats? Let me know by leaving a comment now.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

3 Comments

  1. Dear Michael Wilding Thank you very much for your product and support. I have been searching for this kind if support for a long time. Your no end of help.

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