Advice

Aintree Festival – Day 2 Preview

(Last Updated On: April 5, 2013)

We came out with a nice profit yesterday, you may have come out with more if you took advantage of special offers and better odds. Today we want to come out with some more profit so lets get stuck in and see what we can find!

2.00 – ROSE APPEAL SUPPORTS ALDER HEY TOP NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 2

We start with a small field of just five runners to ease us into what is going to be another day of very competitive racing. Of these five runners, Forgotten Voice beat Brick Red at Kempton on the 23rd February in a Class 1 Hurdle race. However while being beaten by five lengths, the difference between them in speed figures was small. This does give a slight edge to Forgotten Voice who is a consistently improving runner.

Brick Red has still been performing excellently but may have a preference towards slightly softer ground, which he won’t be getting today. This won’t stop him being competitive and we expect to see him at the front of the field. Zuider Zee has been putting in some good performances but there is concern about whether this rise in class is going to prove too much for him at the moment, and we would like to see a few performances at this level before being confident in how he will run.

My Tent Or Yours ran excellently at Cheltenham and a few weeks earlier also put in a great race at Newbury. With a three week race we expect him to come back fighting fit and giving his all. Everything is in his favour and he will be giving the others a good run. Art Of Logistics is, similar to Zuider Zee, taking a big rise in class and it could be too much for him to contend with the first time. We would want to see more proof of him racing at this level before being confident in him.

There is no doubt that of the three runners left it is going to be very competitive. I’m going to remove Brick Red from contention, having been beaten previously by Forgotten Voice, which leaves us with just two runners in My Tent Or Yours and Forgotten Voice to choose from.

With very little to split between these two runners, I’m going to be going with My Tent Or Yours who gains a slight edge for me. He’s been racing against better opponents and has got a better improvement angle. He is also a distance winner and these things combined may give him enough over Forgotten Voice to take the win.

Selection: My Tent Or Yours to win.

2.30 – JOHN SMITH´S MILDMAY NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 2

Another small field of just six runners, none of which are currently above odds of 10/1, which tells us immediately that this is going to be a race with many potential winners. Dynaste and Third Intention met each other at Cheltenham and Dynaste beat Third Intention by over 11 lengths which is enough for me to remove Third Intention from todays list of contenders.

Rocky Creek has been a consistent performer and shown that he is more than capable of handling today conditions, while Super Duty is an improver. His last race at Cheltenham was excellent and puts him in good stead for today, especially since he has shown signs that he will like the firmer ground. Vino Griego put in a great figure at Cheltenham but there is concern as to how he will take to the difference with his best races all being around 4 furlongs shorter. This is a cause for concern in such a competitive race. Sea Of Thunder is coming back from a long layoff and while that has indicated in the past a good performance I am not sure whether it will be good enough, he is likely to be out classed in this race and he will need to improve on his best race over the last twelve months in order to have a chance today.

While Dynaste, Super Duty and Vino Griego all have very close form figures, Dynaste’s last race was at a lower class than the other two. This means he is going to need to show some improvement today in order to be able to contend. Although they all have a chance, of these three Vino Griego looks to have the best potential having been racing against the best runners and performing well. Our concern is that he has not won many of this races, at just 14%, when you compare this to the other runners who know how to win.

Super Duty meanwhile has won 45% of his races and could be the one to beat today.

Selection: With a number of runners having a strong chance at taking this race, I’m going to be siding with Super Duty as a back bet to take the edge.

3.05 – JOHN SMITH´S MELLING CHASE GRADE 1

This chase race contains some excellent runners, such as Cue Card, and is going to be one of the highlights of the day. Although a good runner, having been beaten on the 26th December by Cue Card and the 24th November by For Non Stop, I am happy to remove Finian’s Rainbow from contention in this race.

In his last three races Mad Moose has refused to run twice and was beaten by Sprinter Sacre once. This makes it very difficult for us to be confident in risking any money on him, as even if he doesn’t refuse to race he has been beaten by another horse in the field recently. I will be removing him from contention.

While Flemenstar has got very chance, I also find it very difficult to find something to single him out as being special amongst this field.

Sprinter Sacre has won 86% of his races and looks well set to take todays. He is going to be the one to beat here.

Selection: While I don’t think there is any value in this odds-on runner today, it is impossible to bet in this race without betting on him and so I have no choice but to choose to back Sprinter Sacre. In normal situations we would leave this race alone do to lack of value.

3.40 – JOHN SMITH´S TOPHAM CHASE HANDICAP

The first big field of the day with thirty declared runners. We can remove eleven runners immediately from those who have not had a good race in 300 days or longer. We then remove all those runners who have shown a decline or are unlikely to be able to meet the class of todays race, this however still leaves us with sixteen potential contenders!

Of the rest it is a totally wide open race with anything being possible, as we saw yesterday in the 100/1 winner of Tartan Snow! The two that interest me the most are Dashing George who has got good form ratings and, if we forgive him his last couple of races, has some good form ratings. He’s well weighted and been showing improvement and I would like to see him run a good race today.

Bennys Mist likes the ground and distance and has every chance. He has shown improvement recently and if he can continue to improve then he could be there at the wire today. Sizing Santiago also looks promising but would ideally like to see more from this horse before placing my money on him.

You would be well advised to stay away from this race today as there are at least 16 runners with the potential of winning. I will be making a selection but you should proceed with caution!

Selection: In a race with so many possibilities, having more than one runner is not going to be giving us any additional edge. Instead I will be going each-way on Dashing George who is a good price and looks to have potential to finish in the frame.

4.15 – JOHN SMITH´S SEFTON NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1

Returning to a normal field size of 11 runners, one non-runner in Imperial Leader reduces this to a possible ten.

I’m going to start by removing those runners who have been showing a steady decline in performance and this removes six runners from the field and leaves us just four to focus on in Uxizandre, Yesyoucan, Master Of The Sea and At Fishers Cross.

Of these Uxizandre is making a big leap in class and this could prove to be too much for him today. Due to a strike rate of 75% At Fishers Cross is currently the market favourite, but the odds would be far too short for me to want to take in this race and I am going to be going against him today. Master Of The Sea and Yesyoucan both look to be strong runners who could contend today. Master Of The Sea has been showing significant improvement and while coming fourth in Cheltenham put in some great figures and an excellent performance.

Selection: I’m going to be against the market favourite with Master Of The Sea who I feel could take this race. At current odds an each-way bet offers excellent value.

4.50 – JOHN SMITH´S DAILY MIRROR PUNTERS CLUB HANDICAP HURDLE

The second to last race of the day has 22 declared runners of which eleven have not had a good race for 321 days or longer. Of interest is Minella Forfitness and Hazy Tom who have both run well over similar conditions. However Hazy Tom takes the slight edge having been running higher class races and putting in good figures. Simply Ned has been showing a decline in figures which is cause for concern and enough for me to remove him from contention today.

On the opposite side of the scale, Meister Eckhart has been improving and there is indication that he will have a preference over the firmer ground that he’s going to be getting today. His race at Cheltenham where he came second was excellent and could have put him in good stead for todays competition.

Salubrious can also not be ignored. While slightly slower than Meister Eckhart at Cheltenham he still performed excellently in his race and has the ability to compete strongly. We can forgive his race at Newbury on the 29th December 2012 where the going was heavy as this horse prefers the firmer ground he will get today. Much as we like Hazy Tom it could be a struggle for him to reach this level of class today and so we are going to need to remove him from our contenders list.

Of the rest Prima Porta looks of interest but doesn’t seem to want to win. Although coming first at Ludlow in February the figures were disappointing and not something we would want to use to guide us today.

Selection: I am going to be placing two each-way bets in this race on Salubrious and Meister Eckhart.

5.25 – JOHN SMITH´S MARES´ STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE

We finish off the second day at Aintree with a twenty runner field and I’m going to be using the same technique to narrow down this field and find our selections. A lot fot the runners in this race met at Sandown on the 9th March. The conditions that day were very heavy and so this could throw you off the right track for todays race!

Carole’s Spirits looks to be a strong contender. She has been racing at a good level and performing well. Her last good race was just 26 days ago and she’s won 25% of all her races. Other runners of interest are Legacy Gold, The Pirate’s Queen and Abigail Lynch.

All of these have the potential to contend in the race but of particular interest is Legacy Gold who has been improving. She has a 100% strike rate having won both of her races with the most recent being better than the first. They have been of a class that is competitive at the same level as todays race and her speed figures are amongst the best.  We know that the distance suits as she is a distance winner and the only unknown is whether she will like the firmer ground. The performance over the slightly firmer ground in her two races so far was the better one and this indicates that she may suit todays going.

This is another race that I would, under normal circumstances, be suggesting that you avoid. Anything could happen and there are too many unknowns for us to be fully comfortable. However it is the Aintree festival and we are following our festival betting plan so we will be making a selection in this race.

Selection: I will be going each-way on Legacy Gold who has the ability to be able to take a place and contend at the wire.

Let me know who your thoughts on todays races by leaving a comment below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

7 Comments

  1. Hi Michael not so active in racing these days due to eyesight probs but as usual the analysis is always First class and a lesson in Race Reading. Will certainly invest a few Pounds this afternoon.
    Kind Regards Brian

  2. You don’t see any value in SS at a huge 1.33 (even 1.36 briefly at some bookies)? All I can say is you can’t have looked for it – 1.3 means he is only expected to win this 77% of the time!
    Unbeaten over fences and never off the bridle, has previously easily beaten strongest rival (CC), Proven over the distance (2nd in Hurdles race when immature), has won at Aintree and has won on Good ground. What better form could you ask for?

    1. There is no questioning the form, but I wouldn’t expect him to win this more than 70%-75% of the time and then I would ask to have 50% value on it for when I’m wrong which means I would be looking for odds of near 1.50 ideally. If you think 1.3 is value then I imagine you think his actual odds should be closer to 1.20 and you would expect him to win around 83% of the time? You may well be right, just for me I don’t think it’s value.

  3. thanks for yesterday micheal i did win a few quid also had tartan snow and cool friend if you looked on betfair charts you would of seen people brought it into 25 and it went out to 230 on fairbot i done it place only and got 32 and cool friend was same and geegee had it each way,with your 27-1 shot i had good day thanks,

    1. Thank you Jules, well done on getting on Tartan Snow and Cool Friend. I hope you were on the first one today, came in nicely!

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