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An Angel on Your Shoulder?

It was very much a case of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ with last week’s horse racing.

This week begins on a fairly low-key note, but it picks-up on Thursday, when we have then first of three days action at Haydock, culminating in the latest renewal of the Group 1 32Red Sprint Cup on Saturday.

Ascot hosts two days of racing on Friday & Saturday. On Saturday Kempton will host its most valuable all-weather meeting of the season, with two Group 1 races, including the September Stakes, in which last year’s Oaks and Prix de l’Arc De Triomphe heroine, Enable, is set to make her eagerly awaited seasonal reappearance.

Gosden Colt’s Too Darn Hot for Solario Rivals

Before looking ahead to next week’s action, let’s have a look at two racing stories from last week. They both concern horses owned by Lord and Lady Lloyd-Webber.

Impressive Galtres winner, Lah Ti Dar, now looks to be headed, not for the St Leger, but over to France for the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp. A good win there, and the John Gosden trained filly will no doubt have a tilt at the Arc.

It would make perfect sense to go for the Arc. As a 3-year-old filly she gets all the allowances, and they have an excellent recent record in the race. Lah Ti Dar is presently a best priced 9/1 for the Arc with William Hill & Ladbrokes.

On Saturday, the performance of the weekend came from Lah Ti Dar’s full brother Too Darn Hot, who put in a top-notch performance beating five rivals in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown. The son of Dubawi, who had won a 1m maiden at the track on his debut, had no problem with drop back to 7f.

On pedigree, he’s bred to appreciate middle distances as 3-year-old, so it was encouraging to see him having the speed to easily beat what looked a decent field on paper. Jockey Frankie Dettori kept him up to his work inside the final furlong, but the further they went the stronger he looked.

He’s a horse open to plenty of improvement, and the Group 2 Royal Lodge over a mile at Newmarket is now looking like a logical next race for this likeable colt.

It’s early days, but it does seem that we could have a decent bunch of future 3-year-olds on our hands.

 

Last Week’s Eyecatcher

Endlessly, trained by Martyn Meade, was having his first run since a good 5th in a Newbury maiden back in April. He travelled well for a long way, and was still in contention out wide two furlongs from home. His effort flattened out in the final furlong and he stayed on at the same pace to finish 5 th. Maybe he needed the run after a 132-day absence? A few winners have come out of the Newbury race, and I think that the 3-year-old is on a winnable mark off 73.

 

The Week Ahead: A Stats Perspective

Let’s hope we can follow-up last week’s post, where I highlighted trainer David Menuisier as a trainer whose horses were worth noting at Sandown.

He had two runners at the track on Saturday: History Writer 5th, and Dragons Voice winning at a generous 8/1.

Monday 3rd September

Windsor

Silvestre De Sousa hasn’t had many rides at Windsor this season but he’s got an incredible win strike rate:
6 winners from 11 runners
Strike Rate 55%
SP Profit +8.62
A/E 1.73
Placed 10
Place Strike Rate 91%.

He has got three booked rides at Windsor on Monday.

5:30 – Al Mortajaz

6:30 – Chikoko Trail

7:30 – The Secrets Out

Tuesday 4th September

Goodwood

Since 2014 Gary Moore’s record in handicaps at Goodwood is
12 winners from 74 runners
Strike Rate 16%
SP Profit +36.88
A/E 1.72 

However, his record with 3-year-olds in course handicaps is
7 winners from 16 runners
Strike Rate 44%
SP Profit +47
A/E 3.55
Placed 7
Place Strike Rate 44%

Wednesday 5th September

Ffos Las – when the money’s down, its worth noting any runners that Andrew Balding sends to the Welsh track. In particular, his horses running in non-handicaps – 9/1 & under. Since 2014 he’s had:
5 winners from 11 runners
Strike Rate 45%
SP Profit +7.65
A/E 1.32
Placed 9
Place Strike Rate 82%.

Thursday 6th September

Salisbury – Joseph Tuite doesn’t have many runners at Salisbury, but he’s a profitable trainer in handicaps with runners 9/1 & under: 6 winners from 13 runners
Strike Rate 46%
SP Profit +15.83
A/E 2.6
Placed 8
Place Strike Rate 62%

Friday 7th September

Ascot – Jamie Osborne is another trainer whose handicap runners are worth following when well fancied in the betting 9/1 & under. Since 2014, with such runners at the track, he’s had:
7 winners from 17 runners
Strike Rate 41%
SP Profit +20.13
A/E 2.3
Placed 8
Place Strike rate 47% 

Saturday 8th September

Haydock – These two trainer stats cover all three days at the track:

Ismail Mohammed’s record in Haydock handicaps with horses 9/1 & under is:
6 winners from 11 runners
Strike Rate 55%
SP Profit +8.38
A/E 2.1
Placed 7
Place Striek rate 64%.

John Gosden’s record in Haydock non-handicaps since the start of 2014 is:
23 winners from 69 runners
Strike Rate 33%
SP Profit +41.9
A/E 1.4
Placed 42
Place Strike Rate 61%. 

He boasts an even better win strike rate with such runners in September:
9 winners from 20 runners
Strike rate 45%
SP Profit +21.5
A/E 1.98
Placed 13
Place Strike Rate 65% 

Very much a trainer to have onside this month at the track.

Big Race Preview
An early look at Saturday’s big race.

Haydock

4:15 – 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f

Last year’s winner, Harry Angel, left his race in the King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in the stalls, suffering an injury in the process. He returns from a 77-day break, but his form figures, off a break of 45+ days, are 1211. So, he will be fit enough and he  looks to be the one to beat.

Given he has 5lb or more on official ratings, in front of any runner in the race, not surprisingly he’s ante-post favourite for the race. BetVictor are a standout 2/1, at the time of writing, which looks generous to me.

The Aiden O’Brien stable are back banging in the winners, so Clemmie would be an interesting runner should she come over for the race. The 3-year-old ended last season with a win in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.

She hasn’t built on her juvenile promise on her three starts this season, but all three runs were over a mile. The drop back to 6f could be what she needs. By no means a certain runner, as the Matron Stakes on Irish Champions Weekend has been talked about as a target. Her ante-post odds of 20/1 reflect the fact she is probably an unlikely runner.

A more certain runner is Eqtidaar. The Sir Michael Stoute trained 3-year-old was a decisive winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He was then fancied for the July Cup (8/1) but could only finish 9 th of 13 at Newmarket.

I am not sure how strong this seasons Commonwealth Cup form is, but I doubt he gave his running in the July Cup. Maybe two races on good to firm ground took their toll on the son of Invincible Spirit. If his trainer has him back to form, and the going is good or good to soft, he would have each-way claims.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond Harry Angel from a win perspective, but I can see a better run forthcoming from Eqtidaar, if the ground isn’t on the quick side.

So that’s it until next week, when I will be taking a look at some of the key stats from Doncaster St Leger Festival.

All the best,
John Burke
for The Race Advisor

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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