Advice

Analysing Course And Distance Winners

(Last Updated On: September 28, 2010)

You can find out if a horse is a course or distance winner without much difficulty. The information is available on every website that provides racing details including the Racing Post and Sporting Life.

As with every statistic these will perform better in certain areas than in others and I would like to investigate one particular area where they may perform well. Lets start with a basic analysis of course, distance and course/distance winners.

Course

Runs

Wins

Win SR

Profit

ROI

42013

4460

10.60%

-9736.69%

-23.2%%


Distance

Runs

Wins

Win SR

Profit

ROI

110081

11417

10.40%

-24034.34

-21.80%


Course and Distance

Runs

Wins

Win SR

Profit

ROI

30575

3376

11.00%

-6886.74

-22.50%


There are some interesting results that you may not have thought you would be seeing. The course and distance winners have the highest strike rate, which is not unexpected, but they do not have the best ROI. Distance winners have the best ROI and it is the profit that we are most interested in. One thing is clear, you will not be making a profit using this information on its own!

Available odds are one of the most predictive factors and the ROI and strike rate for distance winners is significantly reduced once we start going above odds of 18/1. If we limit ourselves to runners with odds of 18/1 or less we then get the following results.

Runs

Wins

Win SR

Profit

ROI

85814

10845

12.60%

-15385.34

-17.90%

A good improvement in the ROI and a small improvement in Strike Rate which is excellent. Breaking down the results by Days Since Last Ran.

Last Ran

Wins

Runs

Win SR

Profit

ROI

1 to 7 days

2017

13567

14.90%

-1259.77

-9.30%

8 to 14 days

3014

23931

12.60%

-4422.53

-18.50%

15 to 28 days

3478

27981

12.40%

-5393.05

-19.30%

29 to 56 days

1338

11306

11.80%

-2316.72

-20.50%

57+ days

998

9029

11.10%

-1993.27

-22.10%

It is very clear that 1-7 days since last ran is significantly better performing than any other. We may also find that if we look for a runner that has won in the last few days instead then the performance is increased even more.

Days Since Win

Wins

Runs

Win SR

Profit

ROI

1 to 7 days

620

2864

21.60%

-159.49

-5.60%

8 to 14 days

1094

6221

17.60%

-547.44

-8.80%

15 to 28 days

1661

10934

15.20%

-1917.53

-17.50%

29 to 56 days

1685

12650

13.30%

-2137.17

-16.90%

57+ days

5785

53145

10.90%

-10623.71

-20.00%

Once again there is a big improvement in the performance if we look at the number of days since a win rather than number of days since raced. With a 21.60% strike rate and -5.60% ROI for horses who won in less than 7 days and who are distance winners we are going to be break-even if betting on Betfair. I am sure that we can improve on this still though.

My last filter is going to be distances.

Distance Range

Wins

Runs

Win SR

Profit

ROI

Sprints

343

1776

19.30%

-175.25

-9.90%

Middle

183

780

23.50%

1.69

0.20%

Long

94

308

30.50%

14.07

4.60%

Sprints are losing money where as middle distance races are break-even and long distance races are making a profit.

Using the filters:

Distance Winner

Last Won less than 7 days ago

Distance should be long

Wins

Runs

Win SR

Profit

ROI

94

308

30.50%

14.07

4.60%

If you are not adverse to doing some small amount of analysis I would suggest that you find any runner who has won at the distance and had a winning race in the last 7 days. Then take a look at the race and analyse whether you feel this runner is going to be competitive in the race. By doing this you are going to have a significant amount of bets each year and the manual analysis will help to remove those runners that do not make a profit.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

8 Comments

    1. Everyone has their own definitions but I would say a sprint is 7 furlongs or less, middle is up to around 1 mile 5/6 furlongs and anything over is long distance.

  1. Hi R A that was very interesting i am sorry though you did’nt
    do the same for COURSE & DISTANCE WINNERS as they origenaly
    had the highest strike rate would have been interesting to see
    what would have happend with the same filters in deed would it have overtaken
    distance winners with it already starting out with a better strike rate the ROI would
    also improve
    regards

    glen

  2. Hi,
    I have always looked at winning flat horese that run again within 10 days
    Today there was 3.
    2.20 Warwick Green Park won @ 9/1
    2.30 Lutine Charlie 2nd at 15/8
    4.30 Style and Panache 3rd at 7/2 (extra 6lbs did not help)
    I mst strat looking at D and/or C&d in the future.
    Thanks very intereesting

    Tim

  3. Hi,
    I have always looked at winning flat horses that run again within 10 days
    Today there was 3.
    2.20 Warwick Green Park won @ 9/1
    2.30 Lutine Charlie 2nd at 15/8
    4.30 Style and Panache 3rd at 7/2 (extra 6lbs did not help)
    I mst strat looking at D and/or C&d in the future.
    Thanks very intereesting

    Tim

  4. Good reading but you have not looked at one set of stats which make all the difference, true, distance winners win a lot of the time and if you just blindly backed or dutched qualifiers you would be well out of pocket, my research shows that only back when one horse is the qaulifier, give it a try some big priced outsiders come in, if you want to play it safe just back 5/1 and under when they qualify, today 4 out of five have come in giving me 7/1 total odds, other days it can be much much higher

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