Patrick Lynch
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Feb- 2019 -27 February
Advice
What is A/E in Horse Racing?
In recent articles, I have begun to include A/E figures when looking at potentially profitable systems. It relates to the potential value of bets and is based on looking at the actual number of wins and dividing it by expected wins (A/E = Actual/Expected). If the A/E figure is above 1.00, it means the horse won more often than the…
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20 February
News
Countdown to Chaos: Did the BHA Make the Right Decision About the Equine Flu Shutdown?
On February 6, the UK racing scene was rocked by the news that all events would be called off until February 13 at the earliest. The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) announcement also stated that it was a ‘precautionary measure’ due to the possible identification of equine influenza at a racing yard. It was trainer Donald McCain who was the unfortunate…
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12 February
Advice
Are You Still Losing Money with Horse Racing Betting Tipsters? You Could Be Falling Prey to Survivorship Bias
One of the big issues facing punters in the modern era is access to an extraordinary number of tipsters. Each of them claims to be successful to the point where one wonders: How do the bookmakers ever earn a profit? Quite easily as it turns out. Back in 2005, Harvard Medical school released details of a study it conducted which…
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6 February
News
Are Female Jockeys as Good as Males? If So, Why Is There Such a Disparity in Numbers?
Today’s article is about an issue that will definitely not engender intense debate and cause arguments! I elected to write about this topic because I felt as if we need harmony in the UK in the midst of the Brexit chaos. In all seriousness, I have heard fellow punters openly exclaim that they never back a horse with a female…
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Jan- 2019 -30 January
Strategies
Betting Bounty – Guaranteed Long-Term Profit Made Simple
Several things in life are relatively easy to do: Make a cup of tea, put on your socks, and conjure up reasons why Alan Sugar should be kicked out of the UK! There are also several guarantees: Getting stuck in traffic while already running late, Alan Sugar refusing to leave the UK, and being left frustrated as your ‘hot tip’…
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23 January
Advice
Is an Odds-On Favourite More or Less Likely to Win the More Horses There Are in a Race?
If you happened to have purchased Eddie’s ‘Odds-On Winners’ strategy guide, then you’ll know that it is possible to make a profit even by backing horses that are at extremely short odds. After all, a win is a win, and when you are getting value with your selections, as is the case with Eddie’s guide, long-term success is likely. However,…
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16 January
Advice
Who Are the Trainers & Jockeys That Love Kempton Park?
There is something special about floodlit racing. Horses look even more majestic than usual when galloping along beneath the lights. Yes, it is normally cold and usually wet, and if you get too close to the rails, the kick-back off the Polytrack will fly up and smack you in the face; but it is still an experience that every racegoer…
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9 January
Advice
Running to Form (RTF) – What Does It Mean & Can It Be Trusted?
Horse racing is full of abbreviations, and it is far too easy to get caught up in the complexities of the sport. Don’t assume that it’s impossible to win if you don’t know your TS from your RPR! Even so, a punter’s greatest weapon is knowledge, so it pays to learn and understand the various methods of ranking horses, trainers,…
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2 January
Advice
Who Were the Best Trainers in 2018?
We have come to the end of 2018 and now is as good a time as any to reflect on the best-performing trainers of the year, from the perspective of a punter. In this article, I will look at trainers on the Flat, AW, and National Hunt, and see if this year was par for the course or an anomaly.…
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Dec- 2018 -27 December
News
Threading the Needle in the Welsh Grand National
Although it is not as famous as the Aintree equivalent, the Welsh Grand National, which takes place at Chepstow, has become a much-loved post-Christmas event. It is a gruelling 3m 5 ½f slog that typically takes place on soft or heavy ground. The Grade 3 event was won by Raz De Maree in 2018, and this year is the fourth…
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19 December
Advice
Is There Money to be Made from Forecasts & Tricasts?
Forecast and tricast bets have often been decried as ‘mug’ bets by experienced punters. In their eyes, these ‘exotic’ wagers are akin to going for a four or five horse accumulator. The odds are long, the potential payoff is massive, but the chances of winning are minimal. However, are we looking at these bets all wrong? Are they a bookmaker’s…
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5 December
News
Who Will Win the Mini-Grand National, a Showcase for the Real Thing?
The Becher Chase, a 3m 2f handicap Chase race, takes place this weekend at Aintree. It was only established in 1992, but since then, it has become something of a ‘training ground’ for future Grand National winners. Why? Because it is run over the same fences as its iconic bigger brother. It is not as long or as gruelling as…
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Nov- 2018 -28 November
Advice
Can the Ladbrokes Trophy Find a Future Superstar?
The upcoming Ladbrokes Winter Carnival is Newbury’s winter highlight, and racing lovers especially look forward to the feature race, the Ladbrokes Trophy, which is for horses aged 4yo+. Although it is ‘only’ a Grade 3 handicap event, this 3m 2.5f test of stamina has a habit of highlighting horses worth following in the season’s major events. The Ladbrokes Trophy was…
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21 November
News
Forgiving a Forlorn Run: Should You Risk Money on Horses That Failed to Finish Their Last National Hunt Race?
Admit it: You have dismissed horses in the past because they failed to finish their last National Hunt race. In some cases, it is a dangerous omission because there are a variety of reasons why a horse doesn’t complete a race. Perhaps the Going was all wrong, or the jockey misjudged a fence. Did you know that over 18% of…
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14 November
News
The Cheltenham Open – Finding the Next National Hunt Superstar
Although there have been numerous National Hunt events already, the Cheltenham Open is often regarded as the true beginning of the jumps season. In recent years, the Open’s importance has grown, and it is now a three-day meeting that attracts challengers from all around Europe. There are multiple Class 1 events and highlights include the BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase…
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7 November
Advice
In the Long Run – Is Stamina a Defining Factor for Longer Races?
The weather is cold and wet which means one thing: The National Hunt season is upon us! The hurdles and fences are out, the going is sometimes Heavy, and the races are longer with every mistake capable of taking a horse out of a race. After backing a horse to win a 3m 4f Chase race on Heavy ground, your…
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Oct- 2018 -31 October
Advice
Halloween Horror Show? Get Over it by Nabbing National Hunt November Profits
By the time you read this, the British Flat season will officially be over which means it is time to switch focus to the National Hunt scene. While summer Flat racing is associated with fancy hats, Pimm’s, and the occasional sunny day, we’re about to get deep down and dirty. National Hunt racing in the UK is traditionally a mucky…
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24 October
News
Doncaster Racing Post Trophy
Also known as the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes, the Racing Post Trophy takes place at Doncaster on October. It is a significant race for two reasons. First of all, it is the final Group 1 race of the British Flat season. Secondly, horses that perform well in this one-mile race for 2yo colts and fillies often feature prominently in at…
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17 October
Advice
Ascot British Champions Day – The Home of World Class Horses
In UK Flat racing, it has become traditional to end the season with a spectacular feast of racing known as the QIPCO British Champions Day on October 20. Although there is a two-day meeting at Doncaster the following week which features the final Group One race of the season, the Champions Day at Ascot is now regarded as the end…
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10 October
Advice
Should You Godolphin at the Dubai Future Champions Festival?
The Dubai Future Champions Festival has become an annual event and takes place at Newmarket each year. It is a celebration of the best 2yo horses in Britain and is a fitting appetiser for the following week’s Champions Festival at Ascot. Although these horses are unquestionably the future, punters are also interested in how these magnificent talents perform on the…
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