Betting Knowledge

Ayr Gold Cup 2012 Preview

Today we have the Ayr Gold Cup to look forward to. At the time of writing this post there are 27 declared runners and the going will be heavy. Let’s see if we can find who the strongest contenders in this race are.

I am going to start with the ten runners who have raced over exactly the same conditions before. As always, any that I remove initially can be brought back in later if there is evidence that they should be.

Our Jonathon, Cheviot, Mirza,  performed very badly over the same conditions, so I will remove those runners immediately. Regal Parade saw a good improvement over 6 furlongs on heavy going between June and July. Although he would need to continue this level of improvement to contend I shall leave him in for the moment as a potential outsider, although the improvement would need to be significant and I am unsure whether he could do it. Boastful, although finishing well under similar conditions, does not look to have the class needed to compete in this race.

Colonel Mak, Hawkeyethenoo and Morache Music all have had a race which indicates they can perform at a good enough level to be a threat today. Maarek has shown an improvement over similar conditions in the last few months, but there is doubt as to whether the improvement can continue, which it would need to in order to be in with a chance.

Without a doubt the top performer under these conditions is The Cheka. With a significantly faster average speed figure over these conditions and having raced a great race on the 14th July, although coming second, this horse is definitely going to be a strong contender.

Widening out our filter a little bit I am going to include runners who have raced over similar conditions to todays race. This adds two more runners into the frame in the shape of Captain Ramius and Brae Hill. Brae Hill looks unlikely to perform under these conditions at the class required for today and so can be removed. Captain Ramius however, looks to be a strong threat to The Cheka. On the 14th July he came third over 7 furlongs on heavy going, and also raced a very fast time under these conditions. These two runners look to have the edge amongst the others at the moment.

If we look at runners who have run over soft going then a lot more of the field comes into play, however there is a very big difference between racing on soft and racing on heavy. I am wary of any runner who has not proven they can’t meet the speed required to win todays race on heavy going.

Of the runners who have raced on soft ground, we can immediately remove Beacon Lodge, Shropshire, Sholaan Rodrigo De Torres, Doc Hay and Borderlescott from contention.

From the rest Pintura cannot be ignored after his performance at Galway on the 4th August, whether he will be able to reproduce this on heavy ground is unsure. Alben Star has been showing good improvement over soft ground and if he can translate this into heavy then could be a threat.

The early market show us that it hasn’t really decided about runners chances and it will be interesting to see how it moves closer to the off.

For me, the two selections are The Cheka and Captain Ramius. I will consider Pintura and Alben Star but will be looking at the market closer to the race to determine whether a bet on them will be worthwhile or not. I will be dutching the selections to win and also looking at place betting them as well if the odds allow it.

Please leave a comment below to let me know who you are going to backing in this race.

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Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

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142 Comments

  1. Hi Michael
    I will be backing David O´Meara’s Doc Hay. The trainer is 5 from 9 this year at Ayr and the jockey has rode 3 winners at Ayr this season.The horse is well up in the weights but finished like a train in its last race and has won a 6 furlong on soft.Looks like an improving horse. AS

  2. Hello Mike,

    Alben Star; Maarek; The Cheka; But just for 50p’s, as I think that this is just one to watch with the ground and all. However, Mister Music looks a tidy bet in the 3.10 at Newbury this afternoon,

    Good luck Mate,

    Woburniron

  3. Thank you for your analysis of the race. Always very difficult to choose. In the last 10 years no horse under 10/1 has won this race so will wait and see the odds. But on your analysis I would have to go with \cheka

    1. As you say it is always difficult to choose in these races, but hopefully we will have found the winner. Of course main aim is to make a profit and places will do that as well 😉

  4. I have taken 16/1 with Will Hill on The Cheka and 18/1 on Captain Ramius with Bet 365 as
    advised by B.S. E and confirmed by you. Hope you are right !!!

      1. Thanks Mike, Not something I considered. Think now with all things considered (G/S Time figures from yesterday) That this year The A G C is deffo one to watch. But thanks for your advices and opinons. Good luck for the day

  5. Colonel Mak and Miza – Both Each Way

    Mirza will need to be at absolute best but seems a big price to me and Colonel Mak should be thereabouts if reproducing recent York run

  6. I agree with most of your analysis.I will be backing two horses,The Cheka and Waffle,with a possible saving on Captain Ramius.The real problem with this race is the amount of horses that K Ryan and R Fahey have in the race.My head tells me not to have a bet,my heart tells me Borderlescott.

  7. I dont like this kind of race much.. so dificult but i think and hope you are right I will be having a little on just for fun and have my main bets elsewhere

  8. I have just placed a bet on The Cheka 1 unit win @$17.50 & 2 units place @5.10 Also 1 unit win on Captain Ramius @24.00 & 2 units a place @ 7.20. So a place by either horse will put me in front.

  9. I’m loath to have a bet with the going being bottomless and if it begins to dry it could become sticky. May wait for Gold and Silver Cups to see how the draw pans out. Very difficult but if you put a gun to my head I would probably go for Colonel Mak, The Cheka and Pintura dutched. But would much rather keep my cash and have a nice lobster dinner this evening!! Cheers and good luck. Allan H (York)

  10. Hi Michael

    Go along with Capt Ramius who I feel has the most consitent form of any runner in big fields. My gut feel is he’s been aimed at this for sometime. As a saver two others are interesting Tariq Too although this prize normally stays in the North and Bajan Tryst who has bits and pieces of form.

    Good luck

    Pat

  11. You have put a lot of emphasis on the going being heavy but I have read 3 separate pieces saying that, based on yesterday’s times, it is no worse than soft. The Cheka and Pintura both look to have outstanding each way chances.

    1. Brian, the going stick is showing that the ground is drying up now so we could be edging even towards Good now. Will need to keep an eye out on the day. If so then I think Pintura could become the top bet.

  12. It has been reported that the times for the races runyesterday are in the Soft / Good to Soft region and no rain forecast. So what , other than the usual misleading report from the clerk of course, makes you think the going will be heavy?
    .
    Ian

    1. Hi Ian, please note I did the analysis last night. The ground is now looking to be drying up and so Pintura could become my main bet of the day.

    1. Hi Gordon, just replied to a few other people commenting about the going as well. My analysis was done last night and it looks like the ground is drying up so this will change my focus if it continues to Pintura.and Alben Star.

  13. im gonna jump on the cheka just doing a spread sheet update found if we use the bse software for selections 20 too 25 22nd aug too 14 sept 5 SELECTIONS 3LOSSES 2 WINS 100 POUND STAKES = 3690 AFTER 5% ROI = 738% MMMMMM NICE

  14. BASED ON TODAYS GOING STATS BELOWHorse Run Win & Plc Win & Plc S/R
    Pintura 8 7 87.50
    Maarek 8 5 62.50
    Cheviot 5 4 80.00
    Mirza 8 4 50.00
    Colonel Mak 6 3 50.00
    Doc Hay 6 3 50.00
    Borderlescott 4 3 75.00
    Boastful 4 3 75.00
    The Cheka 2 2 100.00
    Regal Parade 6 2 33.33
    Captain Ramius 3 2 66.67
    Brae Hill 4 2 50.00
    Pearl Ice 1 1 100.00
    Rodrigo De Torres 4 1 25.00
    Tariq Too 3 1 33.33
    Waffle 4 1 25.00
    Sholaan 1 1 100.00
    Shropshire 2 1 50.00
    Miss Work of Art 1 1 100.00
    Beacon Lodge 2 1 50.00
    Morache Music 3 1 33.33
    Our Jonathan 3 1 33.33
    Johannes 1 0 0.00
    Hawkeyethenoo 5 0 0.00
    Jonny Mudball 2 0 0.00
    Alben Star 2 0 0.00
    Louis The Pious 2 0 0.00

  15. sholaan ,has massive chance. demolished gd field in the soft at york. & races up with the pace which is what will be needed today as cannot see anything coming off the pace with the very soft ground, i would also advise a small ew doc hay, as david o meara is very keen on its chances. gd luck!

  16. If I were an Ayr betting man, I would pick Doc Hay…just won and with a great trainer/jockey combination. Plus the draw. Love your analysis, Michael; mine was virtually a pin!

    1. Hi Peter, thanks for the email. Just replied to a few other people about the going, this analysis was written last night, it is looking like the ground is drying up and so Pintura and Alben Star could become my focus.

  17. ayr 2.20 amadeus wolfe tone e/way
    =======================
    ayr 3.30 our johnathon/alpen star
    ===========================
    on yesterdays results that ground is not that soft (going)

    1. Thanks for the comment Mel, please note this analysis was done yesterday and the ground is now drying up. If that continues I may be focusing on Pintura and Alben Star.

  18. COMPETITON ANALSYER BELOW
    Jockey Trainer OR TS RPR Score Score
    116131 MAAREK D 7 5 10-0 Mark Enright David Peter Nagle 114 113 116 95 3.65=> THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HORSES
    120232 THE CHEKA D 27 6 9-10 George Baker Eve Johnson Houghton 110 103 119 114 4.38
    12630 OUR JONATHAN CD 35 5 9-6 Jim Crowley Kevin Ryan 106 82 123 117 4.50
    307150 COLONEL MAK CD 35 5 8-13 Graham Gibbons David Barron 99 126 121 119 4.58
    035710 HAWKEYETHENOO D 14 6 9-8 Graham Lee Jim Goldie 108 106 119 120 4.62
    363932 REGAL PARADE CD 21 8 9-0 Dale Swift Milton Bradley 100 110 120 124 4.77
    46101 CHEVIOT D 14 6 9-5 Robert Winston Ian Semple 105 117 120 128 4.92
    246291 BORDERLESCOTT D 21 10 9-7 Frederik Tylicki Robin Bastiman 107 108 118 139 5.35
    09424 WAFFLE 49 6 9-4 Shane Foley David Barron 104 110 119 142 5.46
    280523 LOUIS THE PIOUS D 35 4 8-11 Paul Mulrennan Kevin Ryan 97 118 120 144 5.54
    182436 BOASTFUL D 27 4 9-1 Michael Metcalfe Mrs K Burke 101 116 117 149 5.73
    014221 PINTURA D 49 5 9-5 Phillip Makin Kevin Ryan 105 112 116 152 5.85
    033741 DOC HAY D 7 5 9-2 Daniel Tudhope David O´Meara 102 111 119 152 5.85
    359158 ALBEN STAR CD 35 4 8-10 Tony Hamilton Richard Fahey 96 119 119 152 5.85
    1-7834 CAPTAIN RAMIUS 35 6 9-0 Pat Smullen Kevin Ryan 100 104 119 162 6.23
    35424 MORACHE MUSIC D 70 4 9-5 Seb Sanders Peter Makin 105 112 119 169 6.50
    041615 JOHANNES D 35 9 8-10 George Chaloner Richard Fahey 96 117 120 170 6.54
    281168 MIRZA D 70 5 9-4 Darryll Holland Rae Guest 104 108 117 173 6.65
    5-6680 BEACON LODGE D 7 7 9-10 Shirley Teasdale David Nicholls 110 80 107 177 6.81
    02188 PEARL ICE D 84 4 8-11 Tom Eaves David Barron 97 109 122 179 6.88
    072189 SHROPSHIRE D 8 4 8-13 Matthew Lawson Charles Hills 99 115 118 180 6.92
    440200 BRAE HILL 21 6 8-13 Barry McHugh Richard Fahey 99 119 119 185 7.12
    19185 TARIQ TOO 51 5 8-12 Mirco Demuro Amy Weaver 98 111 119 191 7.35
    2-1813 SHOLAAN D 84 3 8-13 Kelly Harrison William Haggas 101 111 119 194 7.46
    422015 RODRIGO DE TORRES D 100 5 8-13 Adrian Nicholls David Nicholls 99 91 119 195 7.50
    224-60 MISS WORK OF ART 9 3 8-13 Laura Barry Richard Fahey 101 75 113 208 8.00

  19. INFORM SELECTIONS TOP DOWN
    e Distance Fitness Age WGT Jockey Trainer OR TS RPR Score
    307150 COLONEL MAK CD 35 5 8-13 Graham Gibbons David Barron 99 126 121 17
    116131 MAAREK D 7 5 10-0 Mark Enright David Peter Nagle 114 113 116 14
    46101 CHEVIOT D 14 6 9-5 Robert Winston Ian Semple 105 117 120 12
    440200 BRAE HILL 21 6 8-13 Barry McHugh Richard Fahey 99 119 119 8
    35424 MORACHE MUSIC D 70 4 9-5 Seb Sanders Peter Makin 105 112 119 6
    182436 BOASTFUL D 27 4 9-1 Michael Metcalfe Mrs K Burke 101 116 117 6
    280523 LOUIS THE PIOUS D 35 4 8-11 Paul Mulrennan Kevin Ryan 97 118 120 6
    359158 ALBEN STAR CD 35 4 8-10 Tony Hamilton Richard Fahey 96 119 119 5
    014221 PINTURA D 49 5 9-5 Phillip Makin Kevin Ryan 105 112 116 4
    035710 HAWKEYETHENOO D 14 6 9-8 Graham Lee Jim Goldie 108 106 119 4
    041615 JOHANNES D 35 9 8-10 George Chaloner Richard Fahey 96 117 120 4
    072189 SHROPSHIRE D 8 4 8-13 Matthew Lawson Charles Hills 99 115 118 4
    246291 BORDERLESCOTT D 21 10 9-7 Frederik Tylicki Robin Bastiman 107 108 118 4
    09424 WAFFLE 49 6 9-4 Shane Foley David Barron 104 110 119 3
    033741 DOC HAY D 7 5 9-2 Daniel Tudhope David O´Meara 102 111 119 3
    120232 THE CHEKA D 27 6 9-10 George Baker Eve Johnson Houghton 110 103 119 3
    2-1813 SHOLAAN D 84 3 8-13 Kelly Harrison William Haggas 101 111 119 2
    363932 REGAL PARADE CD 21 8 9-0 Dale Swift Milton Bradley 100 110 120 1
    281168 MIRZA D 70 5 9-4 Darryll Holland Rae Guest 104 108 117 0
    02188 PEARL ICE D 84 4 8-11 Tom Eaves David Barron 97 109 122 -1
    19185 TARIQ TOO 51 5 8-12 Mirco Demuro Amy Weaver 98 111 119 -1
    1-7834 CAPTAIN RAMIUS 35 6 9-0 Pat Smullen Kevin Ryan 100 104 119 -5
    12630 OUR JONATHAN CD 35 5 9-6 Jim Crowley Kevin Ryan 106 82 123 -18
    422015 RODRIGO DE TORRES D 100 5 8-13 Adrian Nicholls David Nicholls 99 91 119 -19
    5-6680 BEACON LODGE D 7 7 9-10 Shirley Teasdale David Nicholls 110 80 107 -31
    224-60 MISS WORK OF ART 9 3 8-13 Laura Barry Richard Fahey 101 75 113 -38
    Click Here to Export result

  20. IF I look at the money earning side of things PINTURA comes out on top as we see very open race but i think will be 1 of 1st four in the ratings below

  21. SHROPSHIRE will do for me ! 33/1, e.w. first FIVE and best odds guaranteed !

    By the way, SHAME on Ladbrokes and Coral who seem to be the only bookies only going first four.

    The sad thing is their shops will be full of idiots betting with them !

  22. Regal Parade to place (won in identical conditions 4 years ago) having run well lto.
    Pearl Ice, to show marked improvement, now gelded and encountering heavy going for the first time, and win!

  23. I like your selection Pintura and I may be a player closer to the off,

    I’m very keen on the chances of Tariq Too. It can race up with the pace as it did in the Victoria Cup and there should be enough pace around it with Cheviot drawn 17.

  24. Saturday TV Round Robin 25/1, 20//1 & 7/1
    Published September 22, 2012 | By mark
    AYR 2.20 SILVER CUP

    Two trends narrow the field down to one but another trend adds a note of doubt.

    18 of the past 20 winnners were rate 89 or less

    5 of the past 7 had won at Ayr previously.

    This narrows it down to one horse: MAYOMAN

    BUT

    16 of the last 18 winners were aged 3 -5.

    However, one 7YO has won from just 26 runners, which is a similar ratio to the youger horses.

    The horse is 1-3 at Ayr, (over 5F), 4/13 on Good to Soft or Soft ground, (the times show the ground is not Heavy – see previous blog), 3-11 over 6 furongs, has won 3 outof his 7 runs for David O’meara, who had a 6/17 strike rate at the track and a 4/8 record in all age handicaps at Ayr.

    Daniel Tudhope is 2 from 3 on the horse who is 2/6 in 16+ runner races, and is 4/11 running in September and October.

    My only doubt would be the trip on the sticky going. But the selection ran a fine second over 6F at Chester last time when hampered, staying on well. He was campaigned over 5F because he didn’t settle well but it could be that now he is older, and with the jockey he seems to get on best with on board, he will put his best foot forward today.

    If we leave aside the course winner stat, the danger, the one who ticks all the other boxes is TRADE SECRET whose trainer, Mel Brittain, has only had the one runner, Grey Kingdom, who took this race in 1999.

    So, the selection is MAYOMAN

    Danger TRADE SECRET

    Obviously, these are big field handicaps that are something of a lottery and these, along with all selections in this blog, are meant to be backed in TV fun bets at small stakes.

    AYR 3.30 GOLD CUP

    13 of the last 15 runnings were won by a horse rated between 89 – 100. This gets rid of more than half the field leaving us with racecard numbers 15 and down.

    For all favs have a terrible record, just one winner in the past 30 years, neither is it a race for shocks with just the one 33/1 shot winning and the rest between 10/1 and 20/1 over the past 13 years.

    All the last 13 were aged between 3 and 6. No 7YO or older, out of 60 that tried, have won. The 3YO’s are only 1-48. The 5 and 6 YO’s are 4 from 79 and 2 from 61 respectively while the 4YO’s are 6 out of 97.

    Exposed horses who the handicapper has a grip on do not typically win this with 10/13 not having a win in their last three runs, only one wone last time.

    So, the percentage call is to select a 4 year old rated less than 100, priced between 10/1 and 20/1 and unexposed in the sense of not having won in a recent run.

    This narrows it down to one horse: LOUIS THE PIOUS

    Kevin Ryan has three runners: Last year’s winner Our Jonathon, (too high in the handicap on the trends), Captain Ramius who has an eye catching jockey booking in Pat Smullen and the selection. But Paul Mulrennan

    is no slouch when riding for Ryan with a 3/8 strike rate.

    The horse is 4/10 over 6 furlongs and 1/2 on Good to Soft, so let’s hope our time based analysis of Good to Soft/Soft is correct!

    There has been a lot of money this morning for stabemate Captain Ramius. However, if you fancy that, you must give a chance to the selection who had him a half length behind in the £43K Great Saind Wilfrid handicap at Ripon last time on the same terms. The only doubt would be if the going is genuinely a bog but he has run well over 7 furlongs in the past, so not entirely short of stamina.

    The danger on the trends looks to be BRAE HILL.

    SELECTION LOUIS THE PIOUS

    DANGER BRAE HILL

    NBY 2.05 ARC TRIAL

    The trends are somewhat inconclusive, narrowing it down to 3 of the (now) 4 runners.

    My eye was caught by a stat for the shrewd Clive Cox yard showing a 2/3 strike rate in this type of race on this course. The horse is BLACK SPIRIT and it is rated by Racing Post Ratings only 2 lbs below the top rated while being 10 lbs clear on the speed ratings.

    He seems to have improved on his last two runs, first when running second to the smart Gatewood in the same value race as today and last time when winning a £16K handicap over 10.5 furlongs.

    The doubt seems to be the trip, finished fourth, beaten 7 lengths last season. But ran keen in what looked a slightly classier renewal and, if he settles better, I think he is great value at 7/1 outsider of the 4.

    SELECTION: BLACK SPIRIT

    We are keeping our stakes lowish today because of the different opinions on the going. So, our bet is a £1 win Round Robin.

    For those who missed previous posts, this is basically a Patent with double stakes about singles, (don’t ask!) Basically it means you get paid double the odds less the stake if 1 wins, treble if 2 and quadruple if all 3 come up.

    £1 WIN ROUND ROBIN

    NBY 2.05 BLACK SPIRIT 7/1

    AYR 2.20 MAYOMAN 20/1

    AYR 3.30 LOUIS THE PIOUS 25/1

    TOTAL STAKE = £10

    Here is a copy of the bet, (you have to phone it in or place in the shop – the bookies don’t like these bets!)

    http://grabilla.com/02916-76e09729-e254-4195-91c0-bd1a6c81ed28.html

    Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment
    Ayr NOT heavy going
    Published September 21, 2012 | By mark
    To read the press you would think they ought to include water wings along with the other acoutriments such as blinkers, etc, for the Ayr meeting.

    The meeting was abandoned on Thursday and some were wondering whether today’s meeting would see it through to the end.

    Even I, skeptic that I am, fell for it. So much so that I didn’t think it was worth even looking at today’s cards on such reportedly bad ground. However, now we have had some actual racing, the clock tells quite a different story. The average seconds per furlong above Racing Post standard for all today’s races was 1.1 seconds above standard. This equates to genuine Soft going, nearer to Good to soft thenHeavy. Osteopathic Remedy’s time was just 0.83 secs above standard, which would be Good to Soft, as would Jamaican Bolt’s time which was 0.93 secs per furlong below standard, again, Good to soft.

    Here is the Racing Post’s summary of today’s times at Ayr:

    1. Thank you for the detailed trends, are they your trends or taken from somewhere else? I notice that it looks like it was published somewhere else first. Either way very informative. I wouldn’t agree with the selections but it is a tough race to call so will be interesting to watch.

  25. pintura is my choice i will back yous as well now all the talk of heavy ground a horse can be drawn to water but a pencil must be lead

  26. i would like to take this opportunity to personally thank you for sharing your excellent insights onthe world of horse racing.Following your excellent class system info. I was lucky enough to come up with a 33/1 winner at YARMOUTH earlier in the week !BACK TOTHE AYR GOLD CUP Ibelieve Regal Parade can run a big race if M.Bradley can re-harness his old form!Many thanks again for some great info. Keep up the good work regards Tony.

  27. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS WOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO MICHEAL AWESOME BSE RULES

  28. didnt have a bet in the race i thought it was too difficult but congratulations and well done on your
    selection of captain ramius

  29. Captain Ramius winning was fantastic, only wish I could have had a bet on it. I live in Spain and the government has brought out a new rule that you have to go through the Spanish system to have a bet. I have an account with Betfair and many of the bookmakers but every time I try to put a bet I have to complete many questions. I have tried many times and everytime it refuses, I have even rang the Betfair line in Spain all to no avail. Can anyone help, how I can either get through all of this or open a new account etc..
    Thanking you.
    Peter.

    1. look below abt odds they are only a guideline 6 bets 3 winners if 20 /25 from 22/8 too today too 100 stakes 5690 NICE the way too bet BIG AND LESS OFTEN

  30. I had 2 E/W bets on The Cheka and Captain Ramius following your analysis.

    Really nice touch with Captain Ramius romping in 1st.

    Spot on info and look forward to further tips, information, etc

    All the best from a very happy punter.

  31. Hi Michael,
    Have just purchased BSE and am betting with only1% of my bank as I have been stung before!
    Quite happy up tp now but todays win bet on the Ayr Gold Cup was sensational!
    Normally I would not bet on this large a field but decided to stick to the selections and I am so pleased that I did.
    THANKS
    Karen

  32. With BSE giving CR and going with RP
    and Maarek myself it was a brilliant
    outcome.

    I have had the winner in a few big hcp’s
    but never 123.

    btw I noted Ian’s comments re odds too
    big for a BSE selection. I cannot find any
    comment in the PDF re odds ceiling. Are
    my ageing eyes letting me down ?

  33. @Brian From pages 8,9 of the BSE manual PDF ( not the Advanced Manual):
    Back Bet Rules
    Place all selected horses to win as long as their odds are 10 or lower.

    Lay Bet Rules
    Place all selected horses to win as long as their odds are 10 or lower.

    .

  34. I’m still playing with the selections from the software I’m not betting everthing yet although I managed to get on Captain Ramius for a small bet, hopefully more to come my way. Sorry I cant comment like the othe guy’s on here I don’t have a clue about horse racing. like I could have picked the winner at 16/1 DUH! So thanks and hopefully I’ll get more good winners from my selections.

    Regards Kevin.

  35. this is a very good write up. Short and sweet and to the point. Captain ramius won it well and was a big price early on. I had decided on him after reading pricewise in racing post. I put him in my lucky 15 but to no avail as he was the only winner. I had intended to put 25 euro e.w on him at 20/1 but heard tom mulreanan who was on a ryan horse say that Pintura, from the same stable was his pick. So I put the 25 e.w on pintura. Another sad punter tale. I am only reading your post now some 10 hours after the race, but thats the way it goes. I am a bit scattered when it comes to backing horses. Some days I go on hot trainers, other days when Im not working I try to study the form.Then there is days I look up too many sites and have too much info and end up confused. I need to nail down some way of backing horses effectively. Hope you get many more winners as I will surely be giving your site/blog a good look in the future.

  36. I will be betting Captain Ramius. Looked at form, and advice with speed bet Evolution.

    I did back Captain Ramius. 18/1 £20ew.

    Had read he was as big as 33/1.

    Really well done for picking a winner in a race like that.

    All the best.

    Michael

  37. Thanks for the email Michael, good to see you back the two selectionsgiven by the system. In making the selections do you use other data than the speed figures as there does not seem to be any correlation with the graph produced and your selections. A short training session on how to interpret the graphs might help our analysis. I have had some succes with following improvers.
    Daveb

    1. Hi Daveb, these selections were made solely using BSE. If you open the software, go to the Help tab there is a link to a webinar that I recorded showing how I analyse races 🙂

  38. I did not bet in this race. The selections were also given in BSE software but the upper limit is 10.0 @ BFSP. So to be advised in an email to bet e/w, but to not bet if you are using BSE, is a contradiction which means that if you bet – you shouldn’t have. Or if you didn’t bet, you should have. A no win situation…..

    1. Hi Martin, thank you for your comment. The auto-selections in BSE are developed to be profitable long-term. This analysis was done separately to those selections and should not have been bet using the same bankroll as BSE. You can run multiple strategies on separate bankrolls and have all making a profit.

  39. When looking at identical circumstances do you consider the horses lifelong form or do you limit your study to the most recent races for e.g. In 2007 a horse might have achieved a massive rating on heavy ground but not run on that going in recent races?

  40. when comparing identical conditions do you look at a horses lifelong record or do you only concentrate on his recent runs.for e.g. if a horse recorded a massive rating on heavy going in 2007 and has not raced on that surface in recent races do you still use that old piece of form or is does it not have any value?

    1. I focus on the last year mainly but do still use old form using something known as decay function. This reduces the relevance of previous data based on how long ago it was. On average you can consider information to be half as useful as it was every 90 days.

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