Today we have the Ayr Gold Cup to look forward to. At the time of writing this post there are 27 declared runners and the going will be heavy. Let’s see if we can find who the strongest contenders in this race are.
I am going to start with the ten runners who have raced over exactly the same conditions before. As always, any that I remove initially can be brought back in later if there is evidence that they should be.
Our Jonathon, Cheviot, Mirza, performed very badly over the same conditions, so I will remove those runners immediately. Regal Parade saw a good improvement over 6 furlongs on heavy going between June and July. Although he would need to continue this level of improvement to contend I shall leave him in for the moment as a potential outsider, although the improvement would need to be significant and I am unsure whether he could do it. Boastful, although finishing well under similar conditions, does not look to have the class needed to compete in this race.
Colonel Mak, Hawkeyethenoo and Morache Music all have had a race which indicates they can perform at a good enough level to be a threat today. Maarek has shown an improvement over similar conditions in the last few months, but there is doubt as to whether the improvement can continue, which it would need to in order to be in with a chance.
Without a doubt the top performer under these conditions is The Cheka. With a significantly faster average speed figure over these conditions and having raced a great race on the 14th July, although coming second, this horse is definitely going to be a strong contender.
Widening out our filter a little bit I am going to include runners who have raced over similar conditions to todays race. This adds two more runners into the frame in the shape of Captain Ramius and Brae Hill. Brae Hill looks unlikely to perform under these conditions at the class required for today and so can be removed. Captain Ramius however, looks to be a strong threat to The Cheka. On the 14th July he came third over 7 furlongs on heavy going, and also raced a very fast time under these conditions. These two runners look to have the edge amongst the others at the moment.
If we look at runners who have run over soft going then a lot more of the field comes into play, however there is a very big difference between racing on soft and racing on heavy. I am wary of any runner who has not proven they can’t meet the speed required to win todays race on heavy going.
Of the runners who have raced on soft ground, we can immediately remove Beacon Lodge, Shropshire, Sholaan Rodrigo De Torres, Doc Hay and Borderlescott from contention.
From the rest Pintura cannot be ignored after his performance at Galway on the 4th August, whether he will be able to reproduce this on heavy ground is unsure. Alben Star has been showing good improvement over soft ground and if he can translate this into heavy then could be a threat.
The early market show us that it hasn’t really decided about runners chances and it will be interesting to see how it moves closer to the off.
For me, the two selections are The Cheka and Captain Ramius. I will consider Pintura and Alben Star but will be looking at the market closer to the race to determine whether a bet on them will be worthwhile or not. I will be dutching the selections to win and also looking at place betting them as well if the odds allow it.
Please leave a comment below to let me know who you are going to backing in this race.