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Big Race Preview – Totescoop6 Challenge Cup – Ascot – Saturday 7th October

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There are some big handicaps his weekend both sides of the Irish Sea. At Ascot, we have the Totescoop6 Challenge Cup Handicap over 7f on Saturday. Meanwhile over the Irish Sea on Sunday there is the Ladbrokes Munster National at Limerick and the Irish Cesarewitch, which this year will be run at Navan rather than the Curragh. For this weeks preview, I am looking at Ascot’s big Saturday handicap.

Last years race was one by the well-backed Dean Ivory trained Librisa Breeze at odds of 11/2. Looking at the period under analysis, there have been 9 winners from 182 runners with 34 placed. Here are some of the key trends both positive and negative that have emerged:

Key Trends:

Positives

Runners aged 3 to 6 have won all 9 running’s of the race
Runners starting 16/1 & under in the betting are 8 wins from 100 runs 26 placed
Runners moving up 1f from their last run have had 5 winners from 59 runners A/E 1.53 11 placed
Runners that won their last race or were beaten 4 lengths or less in their last race are 8 winners from 114 runners 25 placed

Negatives

Runners with 2 or wins at 7f are 0 wins from 87 runners 12 placed
Runners drawn 16+ are 0 wins from 49 runners 1 placed
Runners with 4 or more handicaps wins are 0 wins from 51 runners 8 placed

Now as we know past results are not necessarily a guide to future success but hopefully, you can use the above trends to find some strong contenders for your shortlist and remove some weak ones.

Until next time

John

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.

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