Thanks everybody for your interest,
I have now, hopefully, come-up with the goods.
My aim is maximum profits from minimum selections
The basic system is a Trainer based Win & PLACE, and is as follows:
- Trainers with a minimum of 25% win, and or 50% placed runners, over the current season or longer.
- Minimum SP for the moment is 7/1, 8/1 on Betfair. My original system minimum was only 4/1, but nearly everything below 7/1 this time loses money, including between 4/1 and 13/2 over 50 pts.
- Able to handle the going, not necessary even to have won, or been placed, but finished within 5 lengths if win-based, 10 lengths if place-based selection.
- On occasions, I will bet on up to 3 trainers in a race, so long as the lowest SP will cover the remaining selections if they lose. This should not be a problem betting at a minimum of 7/1.
- I start off my systems with a 100 bank and bet 2% per selection, increasing every time the bank reaches another 100; 1% win and 1% place or 2% if just using the win or place alone. This gives you 50 losing selections before the bank is finished, and if that is the case, the system is a load of crap, but you have only lost 100 of whatever currency you use. It normally does not take long to be playing with the bookies’ money and not your own.
- If your selection is from the place-side, you are restricted to 8 to 14 runners inclusive, but on the win-side there are no restrictions on runners.
- No upper limit on SP’s, I’ve had winners at 66/1, and the highest place SP was 150/1.
- You must police your systems regularly, or you will continue to be betting on horses, trainers, race classes etc. which are just leaking your profits away.
Case in point with my original system when it was still place only. My first 16 place bets at Wolverhampton all lost, not one place out of 48 possible, so no more betting at WOL.
The longest losing run in my original system was 32 on the win-side, luckily followed by a 33/1 winner and about 15/16 on the place-side.
Overall, I had about 5/6 20+ losing runs on the win-side, so if you can’t get your brain around these stats, I don’t really think that this is for you.
Results for the first 2 months are as follows:
Original + 68.3 pts = to an average of 1.12 ppd from 547 selections.
Version 2 + 152.6 pts = to an average of 3.57 ppd from 217 selections, this is the one we are doing this month, selections are on Forum.
Version 3 + 378pts = to an average of 6.19 ppd from 143 selections. Still need another month’s data to make sure I am not taking away too much too soon.
Original and V2 spreadsheets available to those that want them, and am working on a spreadsheet with all the good and bad data that has been gathered so far, that will also be available for those that would like it.
My current selections come from Sky Sports Racing season stats for Flat and NH trainers, but any site you have with at least the season stats so far, or even 5 year stats, is good.
Hope the above has wetted your appetites – let battle commence!
Apologies in advance if I have missed anything out, just come on the blog and you should have a reply the same day.