The big discussion today is whether Big Bucks can win this race! So far we have managed to find a profit every single day of the festival, let’s hope that we can do it again today.
As always we want to narrow down the field to begin with and I am going to be using all the features available to RA Members to do this.
We can use the Improver Graphs to remove Five Dream and Voler La Vedette immediately as they are both showing a decline in performance over similar conditions.
I am going to also remove Mikael D’haguenet and Mourad both of whom have low RL figures and Mourad also has a bad speed bar. I have highlighted the runners at the bottom as we have been unable to create RL figures for these runners and so they must be considered.
As this is a 3 mile race proven ability over the distance is very important and I will use the RA Graphs to determine this. There is not the space here to show the graphs for all the runners but I have put Big Bucks graph below.
As you can see Big Bucks has raced over this distance recently, at the required level and distance and won, very strong indicators of his level of performance today!
Using this technique I can remove Cross Kennon, Thousand Stars, Carlito Brigante, So Young, King Of The Night and Smad Place. We are left with three potential contenders in Big Bucks, Dyanste and Oscar Whiskey.
If we now look at each runners winning strike rate and days since last won we find that Dynaste has a 29% and hasn’t won for 116 days. This is compared to Big Bucks’s 82% and 46 days since winning and Oscar Whiskey’s 77% and 33 days since last won.
Selection: Everything in this race points towards Big Bucks as taking this home and I think he is hard to oppose. Although I am not a fan of odds-on selections this may be an occasion where I would go for it. However I think that Oscar Whiskey makes a good place bet. This puts me in the position of having to go for Big Bucks and a 20/80 or place on Oscar Whiskey.
So far members of the Race Advisor have made a massive profit at Cheltenham just by using our Big Race Trends which found three winners yesterday in Bobs Worth W 9-2, Finian’s Rainbow W 4-1; Champagne Fever W 16-1.
Let me know what you think of this race by leaving a comment below.