Betting Strategies

  • Forgiving a Forlorn Run: Should You Risk Money on Horses That Failed to Finish Their Last National Hunt Race?

    Admit it: You have dismissed horses in the past because they failed to finish their last National Hunt race. In some cases, it is a dangerous omission because there are a variety of reasons why a horse doesn’t complete a race. Perhaps the Going was all wrong, or the jockey misjudged a fence.  Did you know that over 18% of…

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  • In the Long Run – Is Stamina a Defining Factor for Longer Races?

    The weather is cold and wet which means one thing: The National Hunt season is upon us! The hurdles and fences are out, the going is sometimes Heavy, and the races are longer with every mistake capable of taking a horse out of a race. After backing a horse to win a 3m 4f Chase race on Heavy ground, your…

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  • Bad Run or Bad Runner? Should You Back Horses That Failed to Finish Last Time Out in National Hunt Races?

    For some punters, the form is everything which means dismissing a horse if it had a poor race last time out. Over the last year, I have analysed a lot of major races and found that most winners performed well in their previous race. However, this may only hold true for races at the highest level.  In lower grade races,…

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  • Claiming Jockeys – Does the Weight Off a Make a Difference?

    There are an estimated 750 jockeys in the United Kingdom. You may be surprised to learn that approximately 300 of them are amateurs while the other 450 are professionals. At the start of their career, all professionals are licensed as either Conditional (National Hunt) or Apprentice (Flat and All-Weather racing) jockeys.  Initially, inexperienced jockeys receive a helping hand in the…

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  • 32 Red Sprint Cup at Haydock

    The 3-day Sprint Cup Festival takes place from September 6 – 8 this year at Haydock Park, long regarded as one of Britain’s most attractive racecourses. The feature race, the Group 1 Sprint Cup, is the last top-level sprint race of the year and the 6-furlong dash normally brings a world-class field with Championship honours at stake. It is one…

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  • Should You Go Dutch? A Guide to ‘Dutching’ in Horse Racing

    Legend has it that the term ‘dutching’ comes from the mobster Arthur Simon Flegenheimer, better known as Dutch Schultz. He was Al Capone’s accountant and was involved in various rackets including a racetrack. Schultz is credited with coming up with the idea of dutching in the 1920s.  It is a system of betting used mainly in horse racing and football.…

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  • Monday’s Weekly Roundup – Horse Racing

    As promised this article primarily looks at the upcoming Yorkshire Ebor Festival which starts on Wednesday. However, I will begin with a look back at last week’s racing action. Towcester must focus on the horses, not the dogs The most interesting story of the week took place off the track rather than on it with the announcement that Towcester racecourse…

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  • Sprinters on the Rail – Should You Back Horses Drawn Low in Short Races?

    Stalls were first introduced in the United Kingdom in 1965 for Flat races. For decades, stall #1 was always furthest to the left from a jockey’s perspective. For left-handed courses, it meant #1 was by the rail while on right-handed courses, #1 was drawn widest. The BHA changed everything, however, and since March 30, 2011, the #1 stall is the…

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  • Horses New to Trainers – Who Performs Best?

    Every so often, you will hear about a horse winning its first race with a new trainer. Does this mean the trainer has produced racing alchemy to boost the performance of a hitherto underwhelming horse? Perhaps the horse’s former trainer didn’t know how to get the best out of the animal. Alternatively, maybe the new trainer simply picked the right…

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  • Draw Bias at Goodwood

    Of all the major festivals on the UK racing calendar, it is suggested that Glorious Goodwood has arguably the most extensive level of draw bias. It is something that has been spoken about for years. Back in 2009, Simon Rowlands of Betfair wrote about the bias for horses near the rails in the Mile Handicap; primarily due to a large…

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  • Fitting the Bill: Does Your Selection Make Sense? A Simple Way to Analyse Your Horse Racing Picks

    Even a 10-runner race can take a significant amount of time to analyse. Back in November 2011, Michael wrote a brief article entitled Finding Selections – The Beginner’s Guide and pointed out that professional bettors look at a vast array of factors. He mentioned eight of them and noted that in a race with ten horses, you would have 720…

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  • Is Kelly’s Criterion Effective in Horse Racing Betting?

    Experienced punters would suggest that a proper staking plan is as important as finding winners when trying to attain long-term profit. Let’s face it, even the best ‘system’ will have extensive losing runs. If your current method of staking is unable to get you through these rough patches, it is a waste of time because you won’t benefit from the…

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  • Trainer Focus – Which Trainers Are Most Likely to Provide You with Profit in July?

    There are many potential ‘angles’ that you can cover when seeking a profit from horse racing. You can look at a variety of criteria including favourites’ performances when dropping down in class, horses returning within seven days, and a specific horse’s results over a certain type of going. It is possible to go through hundreds of pieces of data just…

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  • Day 5 Royal Ascot Trends – Will They Help You Find a Winner?

    Saturday is the final day of this year’s Royal Ascot festival and hopefully, you have managed to make some semblance of a profit over the previous four days. As you would expect, bookies love Class 1 races because it forces us to pick a winner from a field stacked with world class horses. The final day of Ascot sees four…

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  • Van Der Wilding

    We’ve spoken a lot recently about the Van Der Wheil since we launched a leading piece of software for using it. However, what we haven’t spoken about much is Van Der Wilding. This is an approach that Michael Wilding, the founder of the Race Advisor, created and used to excellent effect. Since he wrote about it, over 3750 people have…

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  • Who To Watch – Week Beginning 28th May

    One of the biggest weeks in the flat racing calendar with both the Oaks and the Derby taking centre stage at Epsom on Friday and Saturday respectively. Cracksman returns in the Coronation Cup at the same venue and hopefully, another scintillating performance is on the cards for the exciting son of Frankel. Trainers Richard Fahey – A stable that is…

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  • How to Find Front Runners for Back to Lay Opportunities

    This was something I’ve wanted to write about for a while but the notion of getting value from front-runners on the Betfair Exchange became embedded in my mind after the Chester Cup. I had backed the well-known front-runner My Reward at 14/1 and saw its odds tumble to around 9/1 by the off. Within 20 or so seconds, when the…

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  • Trainer Sweet Spots – Are the Forums Right?

    It is a well-known fact that some trainers have a clear preference for specific courses. For example, in his career, Paul Nicholls has a 56%-win rate over jumps at Southwell, a 40%-win rate at Leicester and win rates of 35% at Fakenham, Perth and Musselburgh. Meanwhile, he struggles at Market Rasen (17%), Haydock Park (17%), and Towcester (12%). We also…

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  • Michael Wilding Rips Apart The Grand National

    It’s been a little while since I wrote a blog post, and what better time to do so than on the day of the Grand National. I’m going to use a combination of the Race Advisor’s tools to make my analysis of the race, beginning with Racing Dossier to narrow down the field. With so many good runners in the…

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  • Is it worth your while following trends

    There is a stark difference between horse racing betting systems and trends. With systems, you’re following a set of data in a bid to find winners. I have written dozens of articles for Race Advisor that offer readers an insight into different betting systems to see if they have the potential for profit. A recent example was the ‘Nowhere Fourth’…

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