Advice

Chase Race Research

(Last Updated On: October 12, 2010)

I thought that it would be interesting to delve into some statistics about Chase Racing.

Rather than using my own databases I have used Adrian Massey data from 2009. Why have I done this? Because I want to show you that it is possible to do this kind of research without having to spend any money if you want to.

If we break down all chase race by SP rank to start with we get the following information.

Bets

Wins

Win Strike Rate

Win %Return at SP

Favourite (inc jf)

1481

489

33.00%

95.60%

2nd Favourite (inc j2f)

1394

272

19.50%

87.20%

3rd Favourite (inc j3f)

1364

175

12.80%

79.00%

4th Favourite (inc j4f)

1299

130

10.00%

85.70%

5th Favourite (inc j5f)

1263

103

8.20%

87.10%

6th Favourite (inc j6f)

1053

60

5.70%

71.60%

7th Favourite (inc j7f)

968

49

5.10%

75.70%

8th Favourite (inc j8f)

752

23

3.10%

48.90%

9th Favourite (inc j9f)

559

13

2.30%

46.30%

10th Favourite or worse

1556

35

2.20%

69.20%

We can see immediately a steadily decreasing strike rate, which shows that the market is estimating each rank quite well. The ROI also decreases steadily which is expected. There are a couple of hiccups in ROI for the 3rd favourite, which is interesting, and also for the 10th favourite and worse which is most likely due to a lack of data (there have only been 35 winners).

You don’t want to start by using the market for your analysis but I wanted to show you the general performance so that we can refer to it later if we want to.

Below shows the results broken down by the amount of weight a runner is carrying compared to the average in the race. This is an important factor in these races.

Bets

Wins

Win Strike Rate

Win %Return at SP

At least 11lb More

597

69

11.60%

72.60%

8lb to 10lb More

870

106

12.20%

87.90%

5lb to 7lb More

1234

155

12.60%

78.50%

2lb to 4lb More

1671

225

13.50%

80.40%

Within 1lb of Average

3181

380

11.90%

81.50%

2lb to 4lb Less

1513

160

10.60%

68.70%

5lb to 7lb Less

1047

104

9.90%

73.90%

8lb to 10lb Less

713

68

9.50%

76.00%

At least 11lb Less

863

82

9.50%

76.10%

10th Favourite or worse

1556

35

2.20%

69.20%

The data above shows that 2lb to 4lb more provides the higher strike rate and a comparatively good ROI. From there it begins to decrease. Any horse carrying within 1lb of the average also performs well and it is interesting to note that 8lb to 10lb more produce the best ROI. This would suggest that we should focus on horses carrying from 1lb to 10lb more than average.

Bets

Wins

Win Strike Rate

Win %Return at SP

Favourite (inc jf)

949

194

20.40%

79.70%

2nd Favourite (inc j2f)

883

149

16.90%

88.90%

3rd Favourite (inc j3f)

819

113

13.80%

79.50%

4th Favourite (inc j4f)

746

87

11.70%

78.70%

5th Favourite (inc j5f)

717

82

11.40%

92.70%

6th Favourite (inc j6f)

600

61

10.20%

74.50%

Other

2161

169

7.80%

79.30%

Not Run Before

81

11

13.60%

77.60%

If we look at the SP rank again we can immediately see that we are starting to build up some better ROI away from the favourite which is where we are most likely to make our profit.

Bets

Wins

Win Strike Rate

Win %Return at SP

2,3 or 4

301

91

30.20%

101.20%

5,6 or 7

1784

298

16.70%

75.60%

8 or 9

1467

177

12.10%

81.20%

10 or 11

1228

128

10.40%

93.90%

12 or 13

938

85

9.10%

81.30%

14 or 15

627

45

7.20%

63.40%

16,17,18 or 19

465

33

7.10%

67.80%

20 or more

146

9

6.20%

133.40%

The above data shows the new set of results broken down by number of runners. It is immediately clear that we are looking for races with very few runners or a huge amount of runners. The 20 or more runners has a very low number of winners and this figure may be subject to change but is worth including for now.

The results of these two simple filters are:

Bets

Wins

Win Strike Rate

Win %Return at SP

All Selections

447

100

22.40%

111.70%

Are these results back fitted? Almost certainly but creating a non-back fitted system was not the point of this article and we have learnt 2 very important things.

1)    Analysis can be done for free within the limitations of the website or software you are using.

2)    In Chase races with 4 or less and 20 or more runners where the selection is within 1lb and 10lb of the average are very worthwhile looking at further.

Remember that there was not much data for races with more than 20 runners and it may well be that these are not good selections. Please do not go out and use this as a system because it will not work but use it as a basis to begin your own study.



Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

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