Cheltenham 2020 is now getting close, and regular readers of the Race Advisor blog posts will be well aware that hype can play a huge role in determining the odds of a horse, and that it can also cause a snowball effect, as more punters lump on a trending horse. However, the flip side is that hype can be countered with a bit of research, as well as a touch of common sense.
Below we are going to look at three horses who will take on a lot of money between now and the Cheltenham Festival, and then we are going to argue why you shouldn’t get sucked into backing them. Of course, we will also provide an alternative that offers a bit more value.
Tiger Roll – Cross Country Chase
Yes, he is a legend who will go down in the history books, but Tiger Roll has yet to appear since winning the Grand National last year. Gordon Elliott will send him out for his first run of the season at the Boyne Hurdle on 16th February (which he won last year), but the late start to the season should give punters pause for thought, especially as Elliott has raised concern over fitness.
Tiger Roll is just 5/4 with some bookmakers for another Cross Country Chase, but that seems way too short for a team that will have Aintree, and a third Grand National, on their minds. A smarter alternative is the tough Urgent De Gregaine, who comes in at a tidy 12/1 according to the latest 888 Sports Cheltenham betting info . The 12year old is consistency personified, and has placed in five out of five races at Cheltenham – a superb each-way bet.
Clan Des Obeaux – Cheltenham Gold Cup
Have you noticed how little buzz there has been over Clan Des Obeaux potentially doing a King George and Gold Cup double? It’s not down to his poor performance last year alone. Rather, it’s the fact the 2019 King George VI Chase told us nothing about the Gold Cup. Lostintranslation, who pulled up, is the only name in that field, who will line up in the Gold Cup alongside Clan Des Obeaux next month.
Some will undoubtedly fancy the double King George VI winner at 8/1, but rewatching the 2019 Gold Cup, and seeing Clan Des Obeaux run out of gas on that gruelling uphill finish, should cause anyone nightmares. An alternative? Throw a dart at any one of Santini, Delta Work or Al Boum Photo. If you want something really tasty, Bristol De Mai is ranging from about 30/1 to 50/1 on the ante-post betting markets. He probably won’t win, but can easily emulate his 3rd place finish this year. His team are aiming everything at it to boot.
Altior – Queen Mother Champion Chase
By the time you are reading this, Altior may have got his season back on track with victory at Newbury, and everybody could be talking about how Nicky Henderson’s star charge will be waltzing to his third consecutive Champion Chase crown. Altior is one of those horses that could make you look stupid for dismissing his chances , but there is a fair chance his odds will drop, as the money comes in on the day.
Where should your money go?
Elsewhere. There is tightness at the top of the market that doesn’t really suit the candidates running. Having Defi Du Seuil, Chacun Pour Soi and Altior all under 3/1 makes for an exciting race for spectators, but an awful one for punters. Throw your money at something like Hold The Note at a cracking 12/1 in the Close Brothers Handicap Chase.