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Cheltenham Festival 2015 Live Blog

Welcome to the Race Advisor’s live blog for the Cheltenham Festival 2015 Day 1. From 12:30pm on Tuesday 10th March I will be blogging live race analysis and conversation to see if we can find the winners at Cheltenham throughout the days racing. We also have Eddie who will be posting updates live from the paddock at Cheltenham to give us the latest information.

This is an interactive event and you can chat with me by clicking on the Comments link under each of our live blog posts.

This is a free event, but if you’d like to make a donation to cover the running costs then you can do that here.

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Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help punters improve their betting profits and think outside the box with their betting strategies. To date he has written over 450 articles on the site and recently started UK Racing News which has become a leading news site for horse racing in the UK and IRE. Check out my personal blog or my Google+

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86 Comments

  1. £25 on douvan with will hills which will win lol if not free £25 bet to put on faugheen. If douvan wins £25 pound on faugheen from profit then back on betfair for back ups with 3 free bets when the 2nd favourites wins happy times !!!

  2. In the first it is highly unlikely any horse other than Douvan or L’ami Serge win. I am playing it safe and backing both to win to guarantee a profit either way

        1. My own ratings favour it. But Douvan is hurt a bit in my analysis due to having only two runs. And, to my shame, I found error in my calculations. Oh well.

      1. 1 30 jolly Allan and QEWY 205 UNDESCEAUX 320 JEZKI 400 Annie power look the best bets today my lay selections for today are ALVISIOVILLE TELLUS MORE 130 JOSSESHILL 205 BLACK THUNDER AND GALLANT OSCAR 240 POLLY PEACHUM 400 AND KILLALQUAY in the 515

      2. using trends I have Jollyalan too but moneys down on money back websites i.e. Hills returning money if Douvan loses and Paddypower doing same is L’Ami Serge loses.

  3. First race looks to be between 2 horses, so I’ve backed L’Ami Serge to win and looking for the free bets from Hills, Coral and PP. It has to be done! Ha Ha

      1. Indeed, Michael. Betbright had a great weekend offer for the 6 weekends, whereby depending on the size of bets you made, they would add increments of £5 as free bets for Cheltenham. I amassed £180 but not had the opportunity to use them today as other bookmakers are more generous.

  4. I’me going for Hurricane fly in the Champion Mullins doesn’t send them over for the good of it
    I feel it will be fought out between his two and the price is right for FLY.
    I will also be laying the new one.
    All the best to every one and have a good day
    Bob (Scouse)

  5. For me 1st race L’ami Serge and Jollyallan. I think im right in saying favourites don’t win this race often so layed Douvan

  6. i have been figuring on the going being good or faster but maybe best to see the first race before committing to the later races, fwiw i think Faugheen will win.

  7. Well i’ve gone for Douvan,Un De Sceaux,Faugheen and Annie Power in a win lucky fifteen and L’Ami Serge,Vibrato Valtat,The New One and Carole’s Spirit in a each way lucky 15.
    In the first i’ve done Douvan to win and seedless each way.Fingers crossed

  8. JH has been to Yogi Breisner’s, the jumping guru, who worked previously with Long Run and that is a big positive. He hasn’t jumped well in his races so far but looks like the sort of horse who will jump better in a faster run race. He jumped the last two at Doncaster at speed well! Well suited by good ground and is 1,1,2,1 over 2 miles when good is the going description and that second was at last years Festival when second to Vautour in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Another positive is the record of jockey Barry Geraghty at two miles at the festival – 7 wins and 10 places from 16 rides (43.75% wins, 62.50% win/place) with a +16.01 profit to SP

  9. Ned Stark – Trained by Alan King, I have been trying to find ways to oppose this one but I keep coming back to this seven year old. He first came onto my radar when winning a decent handicap over an extended 2m 6f at Newbury at the end of November when he shaped that day like a horse who was the right type for this race. After that win he got a try over these fences when finishing 4th behind the useful Pitt Zigg. Last time out he showed his stamina when winning over 3m 1f at Wetherby at the end of January. The only slight concern is that the selection has yet to race in a big field like this over fences but that slight reservation apart his trainer knows how to win this race having won it in 2011 and he has made no secret that he believes that this one is one of his best chances of Festival success this year.

  10. The Druids Nephew – Not as strong on the trends profile as the other two horses but he looks to have to have been trained for this and trainer Neil Mulholland has once again booked Barry Geraghty for the ride. Barry was in the saddle when the eight year old ran an excellent second beaten 1 ½ lengths by Sam Winner here over 3m 3f. He was then 7th in the Hennessey, but he travelled well for a long way in that race and was give a nice prep for this over hurdles 45 days ago. He must surely go well!

  11. My final poke at the race last night

    Gevrey Chambertin – David Pipe won this race in 2008 and his seven year old must hold a good each way chance in this years renewal. A top class handicap hurdler over three miles. He was highly tried when going novice chasing last season. He finally got his head in front in this sphere with an unconvincing win in a novice chase at Bangor in October. Two poor runs followed but he returned back to form in the first time blinkers at Newbury in December. Making all that day he got into a really good jumping rhythm and stayed on well to win a shade cosily. Clearly a talented, possibly quirky, horse he is 9lb lower in this sphere than over hurdles so he has scope for improvement. Ground and distance shouldn’t be a problem and his prominent running style is an asset in big field handicaps here. Granted he has yet prove that an undulating track like Cheltenham is his sort of track and an even bigger concern is whether the blinkers will have the same effect as they did at Newbury. At 16/1 I am happy to take the chance they will work again and if they do he is capable of a very big run off this sort of chase mark.

  12. Ned Stark for me, nice profile for improvement and sure to be well prepared by Alan King who knows how to produce them for Cheltenham

      1. Cheers Michael but still 1 and 2 races to go before my 4 timer and treble comes in but halfway there so fingers crossed

  13. Polly Peachum small ew and also in the without the fav market at 4.5 for me.
    Fresh and improvement to come with better going and likely to be well prepared by NH.
    TBH I dont think annie will be beat as Mullins is a master at bringing one to cheltenham without a run

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