Advice

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2012

(Last Updated On: March 16, 2012)

It is the last day of the Cheltenham Festival. On the blog we have been analysing the major race each day and it has been a good year for the Race Advisor. I hope that we can finish the festival with some good profits in the biggest race of the festival, the Gold Cup!

There are 15 runners taking part in the event and this means that we need to narrow the field down a lot. If you have been following the previous races we have analysed then you will most likely be starting to get a feel for how I do things. All the analysis is done using the tools that are available to the Race Advisor members.

We are going to use a slightly different approach today than the previous days as the Improver Graphs do not have any declining performers!

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2012 1

I am going to start by removing those runners who have a low Contender Strength (CNTDR) and a low RL figure. If there is no RL figure then they will still be removed if their odds in the live market are over 29.

This takes four runners out of contention immediately.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2012 2

I have now expanded the information for the runners and am looking to remove any runner that has not won for a long time. We are looking for horses that can win and so I am comfortable in removing any that haven’t. This removes another three from contention. I have highlighted Burton Port because he has not won since 2010. However he has only recently started racing again on the 12th February where he came 2nd and the market is indicating he has a good chance so we need to look at him further.

This leaves us with 8 runners in what is going to be a very tough race, as always.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2012 3

We still need to remove some more runners from contention before we can decide on how to bet and I am going to focus on those that have a comparatively low Contender Strength and RL to the rest of the field. This takes out The Giant Bolster and Synchronised. Notice that I have left in Weird Al for the moment because although his Contender Strength is lower we weren’t able to calculate an RL ratings for him and so he warrants further investigations.

Looking at the RA Graphs, unfortunately there are too many to show here but you can see examples of in the previous races we have analysed this week, Long Run and Burton Port look to have the edge, although Kauto Star and Midnight Chase are not far behind. Quel Esprit is not quite as good and so I shall remove him as a contender.

We are down to five contenders with Long Run, Burton Port, Kauto Star, Midnight Chase and Weird Al. It is tempting at this point to suggest a dutch as a profit could be made but I am going to look at connection information before making any final decisions.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2012 4

There are only three runners with any serious connection form to look at. This form is over similar conditions to todays race and none of them give us any reason to throw out these runners.

Selection: This is a race which one would probably best be advised to stay away from betting in, it is wide open and anything could happen. While I think Kauto Star would need to perform exceptionally to win, I am not so confident in him not doing this to bet against him. The only solution for me in this race is to dutch bet Long Run, Kauto Star, Burton Port, Midnight Chase and Weird Al. At the current odds this would make more than a 25% return on investment if one of them wins which is a perfectly good profit. For those who prefer to put their money on one runner then I would most likely go for Burton Port each-way.

As always I am keen to hear what you think and in this open race I am sure there are going to be a big variety in opinions! Let me know yours by leaving a comment below.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

37 Comments

    1. Interesting choice Dave, is the breathing op the main thing that led you to Diamond Harry or was there something else?

  1. nice analysis thank you.
    however my money still goes on kauto.
    my heart rules my head on this one.
    cant explain, not like me at all.

    1. A cover bet is a good way of playing this race definitely. I may look at that as well as I normally have multiple bets in a race.

  2. My last Anti Post Voucher of the Festival is
    Burton Port which I took odds of 20/1 (21.00)

    BB did it for me yesterday but the odds were
    obviously short.

    I have also Backed KStar (my Heart)
    Time 4 Rupert for a Place.

    Good luck all and many thanks to you, Michael
    for the excellent analysis.

    1. Did you take Burton Port each-way Brian? I think that you may get a payout on that. You are not the only one going with Kauto Star for the heart bet!

      1. My AP bet is a win bet but I have backed him recently in BF
        place market.

        What a great ride by AP in the 2.05.

  3. Firstly many thanks for you Championship races all week, they have been most useful and enjoyable- is it possible to get a pdf of this write up?

    As regards to the Big One today – I have that feeling that we could be looking at a race result similar to when Imperial Commander won the race for the Twiston Davies connections. He sat third in the betting that year- the market principles have questions and this could be a boil over with something to pick them off like Burton Port or Weird AL…its tough call!

    An alternative bet is a matchbet is Weird AL v Burton Port, Weird AL is 2.2 / Burton Port 1.6 with William Hill and fitness could play into Weird AL’s hands

    1. A match bet is certainly another proposition, I was actually thinking of writing an article about side market bets.

      I am pleased that you have both enjoyed and found useful the write-ups. I could certainly look at getting today’s race into a PDF for you if you would like. Please send me an email at http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/contact-us/ so I know where to send it to.

  4. on his late 09,and early 10 form,against KNOCKARA BEAU,and BURTON PORT.one of them only over 2.5 mile,and beat KNOCKARA further than SIMONSIG, tells me he is classy enough at his price,to bet EW,and if the trainer aint give up yet,i have’t either.

  5. kuto star you dont no whats going to turn up with him he,s unreal.burton port in the other hand would have got up to beat long run if they had another hundred yards i think theirs more to come from him i will dutch kuto star and burton port with a place as well on burton port thanks micheal for the analysis learn alot thanks again

      1. New Trainer…best fresh…hopefully will have matured since last year and his health problems attened to. I think that the trainer is the clue.

        1. Thank you for the details, very interesting. The trainers is new and I hope that he pulls it out the bag for you, and me as he is part of my dutch as well 🙂

  6. I will be cheering on Kauto Star, but my money will be elsewhere.

    I really dont’ like Long Run’s jumping nor his jockey, but Kauto may be too old for this now.

    I have moderate bets on Long Run, Synchronised (EW) and small bets on Port(EW) and Knockara Beau(EW).

  7. My ratings say that Long Run will win. But my form has been that bad lately that maybe I should be laying Long Run, rather than backing ;op

    This blog has been interesting reading this week. Thanks. Keep up the good work (it has been a pity that, except for today, it has been published too late for me to view, but checking them after the fact and seeing the results has been impressive) :o)

    1. Thank you Andrew, I am pleased you have enjoyed reading. I try to get posted by lunch but I do all my analysis as close to race time as possible so I have up to date information and it gives some of my more complex ratings more time to finish their calculations.

  8. I have dutched Kauto Star, Synchronised, Midnight Chase and Weird Al. Admittedly, this gives only a 11% return if one wins (omitting Weird Al would bring this up to 56%). I like Synchronised because he has been running well in high-class races and fits the trends profile for the race. Kauto Star has shown this season that he is good enough to beat last year’s champion, so he has gone straight to the top of my short list.

    1. Thank you for the analysis Jack, it is very interesting. I mulled over Synchronised for a while and in the end decided that he wasn’t for me but I hope he holds up for you.

  9. Maybe I’m being sentimental but I really hope that KAUTO STAR can do it one more time. Long Run is a great talent but sometimes gets outjumped when under pressure. The final hill can out do many a good horse and when you’ve been at it against the best horses in their class for 3 miles, that last hill is a killer. Burton Port must have a great battling chance. I hope it’s as exciting as Big Buck’s race yesterday and pray fo a safe journey to all concerned.

    1. I have no doubt that it will be as exciting as yesterday, possibly more so. As you say though, let’s hope it is a safe journey for all participants.

  10. kauto star long run weird al long run seems to have lost it a bit this year and is he good enough to come back like kauto star weird al as won twice here so ew him

  11. dear sir ive noticed in races where 1 horse has not had a run ,against rest of field.theres big winners to b had,check out 2.20.fakenham 50/1. shot.let me know if uve have any thoughts

  12. Kauto for me , maybe it is time for a new horse to come on the scene ? but one thing I think is Long run is the Lay of the day,sorry but I just cannot see it winning plus the jockey does not fill me with confidence.3 minutes to the off , we will soon know.

  13. Congratulations to those who had bet on Synchronised. It was sad to see Katuo Star pulled up but he is well which is the main thing.

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