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(@andypt007)
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Hi Michael,

 

Hope you have a good easter and look forward to your reply after the hols.

1) Bet type isnt an issue for me - but only betting where there is value is a must, so knowing that the bet has value is very important.

2 ) Can spend 1 hr min, 2hrs max per day

3) Between 1-2 months

4) Dont like strategies that have a lot of selections per day ,but happy to have a number of bets a day over a few different strategies. Struggle to find an "In"- ie to limit the number of races to analyse and strategies to apply, but would like to pick a couple of race types/niches/strategies and put in the time to become an expert at them. Things like reading pace angles, back to lay, false favourites , lay in play etc interest me because they feel like niches that give you an edge if you know what you are doing and take the time to become expert .

Sometimes struggle with analysis paralysis, but been watching horse racing for longer than I care to remember, so like to think I'm fairly knowledgeable but need help to find a way to make that profitable.

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Hi @andypt007. I've made this thread for us to build out your strategy. Please keep everything to do with this strategy (selections, results, questions etc.) inside this thread so we can keep track and make adjustments as necessary.

Great to hear that you are only looking for a value bet. How do you currently determine whether your bets are value? Is it done on a bet-by-bet basis or over all selections throughout a period of time?

I love this:

but would like to pick a couple of race types/niches/strategies and put in the time to become an expert at them

I believe this to be the single best way to become profitable. Once you've got it working in a specific niche, then you can move into others.

With the ability to cope with a downswing of up to two months, means (assuming up to 3 bets per day per strategy) you would probably be comfortable with a strike rate of 35% or higher, but I'd suggest we aim for a minimum of 40% initially and then future strategies can be a bit lower as you build up a portfolio.

Laying seems to be of particular interest to you, is that correct?

Initially, we will probably use your one hour a day on one strategy, finding just a few selections, but the more you do it the quicker you will become and the more time you will have to develop other strategies.

This process works iteratively, which means I need you to feedback to me 🙂

I'll make a suggestion for a strategy, and then ask you to go through it, practice it on a number of races, and report back on how the approach feels (do you like it/dislike it generally), what you struggle with in it, and also the results. Based on this we will either make changes if necessary, or I will help you through the elements that are holding you back.

We will do this a few times until we get to a point where you're comfortable with the approach, sometimes it doesn't require any changes and sometimes quite a few. Lastly I will then ask you to track the results for 100 winners, and report back selections and results, and we will use this information to make adjustments to improve profitability.

We want you to achieve a minimum of a 5% ROI on turnover. To put this into a bank rate perspective, it would be around 50% APR. Which compared. to the current 0.02% APR most savings accounts are offering is pretty good 🙂 Of course, we may get higher than that, but I recommend once a 5% or higher ROI has been achieved the strategy is left alone. It is better to leave an approach that is working, and instead start working on another strategy to add to the portfolio.

I have a strategy that I think will be a very good starting base for you, but would like to confirm whether you are particularly interested in lay betting first 🙂

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(@andypt007)
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Hi @mikeywilding

Thanks for the reply. Just a bit about my background may help. After casual betting and following tipster unsuccessfully for a number of years I eventually became more successful by firstly arbing , then following recommended tipsters with proven history ( football and horse racing ) and then by matched betting and casino offers. These have been successful , but led to bookie restrictions and offers drying up. They have taught me however how important value is and how to manage losing runs when you are sure the value is there- but have shown me that it is possible to be profitable at betting if you put in the time and take action. Going forward I'm just going to keep with one tipster who I really like the style of - he puts rationale for all his bets so over time Ive appreciated what kinds of things he looks for. Hes reasonably profitable but interestingly by far his best results come on flat on decent ground - heavy going and all weather he stinks at and gets lower returns on national hunt - so even knowledgeable tipsters have preferences. I tried trading but its not to my liking - Ive found out I'm uncomfortable at making quick decisions. Ive tried betting bounty and didnt like that kind of strategy either. 

By occupation I'm a freelance accountant contractor-my work is mostly home based , I can be flexible and I have occasional periods when I'm really busy and other periods when I'm really quiet, so Ive found that this suits the kind of betting I do and because I'm now very limited in my other betting I have time to try something new. I'd really like to become proficient and pit my wits against the bookies/exchanges more seriously. I'm approaching my mid 50's so I'm looking to reduce my contracting work soon and am looking at different skills I can utilise more regularly when I do that.

Your question about how do I determine how a bet is value is really the key one for me that Im struggling with. Ive looked at the training and PR Odds and also training re creating your own odds -but not sure where that takes me to in being confident about value ?

Im not specifically interested in laying per se, but it just seems that there could be more niches there that the bookies/exchanges havent priced in ? and I'm used to lay bets from a matched betting perspective. For me value may be about finding angles that arent priced in ? which is why jockey/trainer combos arent appealing, but maybe pace angles,false favourites, eyecatchers and reading races is more interesting.

My background shows that Im not particularly worried about forms of betting where you see the thrill of the finish - if you can lock in a profit before that Im equally as happy and bet to lay proves you've found the value but just take it a bit earlier - if that makes sense ? ( but wouldn't want a system where you have to take that very quickly pre race)

Ive read through all the strategies and the ones that appealed most were the PR Odds Top 4 - limited number of races to choose from and I think Id be proficient in reading those races better with practice, the In Play over 1m 2f was interesting and I found the strategy on following eyecatchers interesting - when I've read form I particularly like horses that had excuses for recent losses. Finding false favourites in another interesting angle. I started on the AW sprint strategy but couldn't follow the logic of the racecard settings- I like to know the logic behind any angle ( which is why following trends blindly isn't to my liking either ). I didnt like the stat pack strategy as that seemed too mainstream and priced into the market.

Hope that all makes sense in terms of preferences, but what you said in terms of approach all sounds good to me - once we settle on a strategy I'm more than happy to have a go and feedback and refine and put in the time to research and improve.For info I'm on the 2% betfair rate as this will need to be priced into returns ( but Im not sure how not having any bets for a few weeks impacts on this)

The problem Ive had up to now is settling on a strategy and then having a helping hand and objectivity to improve on it.

Other things I'm not sure on are not having a strategy too niche that there are a very limited number of bets, and strategies that just suit one form of seasonal race type ( flat/n hunt)  although a target of trying to get a small diverse portfolio of successful strategies is probably where I want to be at, rather than just one large volume low risk steady return type of strategy.

I hear of some experts who watch every single race and spend numerous hours per day on analysis- for me its finding strategies where the amount of time you need to become and expert and gain an edge is proportionate to the potential reward. That doesn't necessarily exclude high time intensive strategies where the rewards are high, but I guess the marginal return on time invested drops off at a certain point on all strategies.

 

Hope all that helps 

 

Regards

Andy

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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@andypt007 superb, thank you for so much information, it makes a huge difference!

Lay betting is usually harder to find value in, and the long-term profits are normally harder to come by, although losing streaks are obviously very short. 

It looks like you've really narrowed down what you're comfortable with and uncomfortable with, which really is key.

Regarding value, it's very (very) difficult to be 100% confident if you've got value on an individual bet. It requires deep statistical models to have an accurate representation of a horse's chances. Honestly, I wouldn't recommend trying. Instead, it's better for us to focus on the value over a number of selections, this is possible to calculate and pretty easy. Then our staking can be based on our perceived edge, and the odds we are placing our bets at. We can use the A/E (PIV) calculation to do this, it's simple and reliable, we just need selections to check it against, which can be built up over time.

As you have already gone through the strategies (thank you, this also makes a huge difference in understanding what is likely to suit you) and you liked the PR Odds strategy, it makes sense for us to begin with that one.

This strategy can be used on any type of racing, but I'd recommend you start by using it on All Weather or Flat racing, sprints only. I recommend starting with these race conditions because there's the least amount of factors involved, speed is king and it's simpler to analyse. From here you can branch out. It's best to choose just All Weather or Flat, however if you choose both it's important to remember that not all horses can transfer between in All Weather and Flat ground, you need to make sure there is evidence the horse likes the ground.

Whilst at the moment our Daily Digest isn't going out, you can start practicing this on Aldermist. Start by opening all the upcoming Flat/AW spring races in individual tabs. Go into each one and make a note of the highest rated PR Odds horse. There is likely to be around 13 races that meet the conditions every six hours. Sometimes there may be more and sometimes less. Take around 50% of the races with the highest PR scores, and use these races to start your analysis on.

That should give you around 6 races immediately to practice on. Go through each race and post in here with a summary of the analysis, which horse you chose and the result of the race. Please also post the bets made, and the profit/loss. The races that didn't happen as you thought, please look at again to see if you could have predicted what happened (sometimes you will and sometimes you won't). Provide that summary alongside the notes for each race as well.

By the time you've gone through six races the process should be starting to feel more comfortable, and you will be getting a bit faster. Expect each race to take a little while initially, don't worry, you can speed up 🙂

Dependent on how those six races go, and how you're feeling with the method, we will either make some small adjustments (for comfort or speed), and then test again, or simply continue the test to get more data. 

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(@andypt007)
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Thanks @mikeywilding - that makes sense I'll make a start later today.

I think just summarising what Ive said before ( and this is really me realising this for myself as well ! ) I'm focussed on value led betting, but where Ive got some assurance that value is actually there and a way to roughly prove/calculate it. 

So with arbs and matched betting the value can be seen in an obvious way and with tipsters you are relying on their historical record as proof that they are finding value over time. Casino offers is another where you can see that the cash offer is higher than the RTP of the machine so you can see value- okay, you can go on long losing runs with casino but then suddenly get a big win so the value comes over time and I'm comfortable with losing runs if I know I'm getting value. Where I would be twitchy is if I was trying to find value myself but wasnt 100% convinced I was finding it or seeing it in an obvious way - that would make me feel a losing run was due to not finding value rather than a normal losing run.

I guess as we move into the PR in more detail I'd perhaps want to widen the net out beyond 4 races a day, but I suppose you are saying we may restrict races to look at by other more specific conditions where the PR odds benefit is still there but to a lesser degree rather than the 4 best PR races regardless of race type ?

 

Andy

 


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(@andypt007)
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Hi, @mikeywilding

Ive made a start on a few races and ran into a few issues - struggling I think with clarity of thought on whether Im just validating the best PR Odds horse or whether Im finding another contender and struggling on order of thought process - I found myself going backwards and forwards on different ratings 

For example :-

5.50pm - 6f flat good/firm class 6.

7 out of the 8 horses represented value ( PR Odds > real odds ).

Venus Marina was the one that didnt and was lowest probability of winning so Eliminated.

There were 4 horses clear on probability with a gap to rest :-

Fairy Mist
Kuanyou
Lady Zodiac
Hi Empress

Of the remaining 3 :-

Commadoir - 914 DSLRG so Eliminated

Hamis Al Bin - need a good reason to keep in
Wisetown - need a good reason to keep in

Wisetown had a low speed rating and PFP -so Eliminated

Hamis Al Bin had a decent speed rating and PFP -so kept in

 

So 5 potentials -

Speed Graphs

Fairy Mist - improving
Kuanyou - up and down
Lady Zodiac - low and not improving
Hi Empress - low and not improving
Hamis Al Bin - up and down

 

So Lady Zodiac and Hi Empress Eliminated

Looking at the form of the 3 remaining 

Fairy Mist been running over longer distances, 1m 2f in most cases
Hamis Al Bin been running on aw
Kuanyou been running on aw

 

So in the end no strong bet.

As Fairy Mist was the highest probability was it just a case of looking at its form , eliminating on the grounds of distance and moving on , or was I right to look in more detail - the winner Hamis Al Bin showed some potential on speed and PFP but could have been discounted on other grounds ?

I'm also struggling a bit getting the speed graphs to work properly - sometimes horses are showing which arent even in the race.

 

6.50pm - 6f flat good/soft class 6.

Amis Reunis
Atreus

The above two were well in front on probability with a gap to New Lease of Life then a further gap to the rest.

Out of these 3, Amis Reunis and New Lease of Life had long DSLGR so just left Atreus which hadn't got much form on softer ground.

Out of the rest only Strategic Order and Mops Angel had low DSLGR so made me think this may have been a race early in the season so potentially as more horses not having run for a while make this a less relevant factor ?

 

7.20 ( think it was this time ), had a standout probability rated horse ( Foxy …..?) but high DSLGR.

That's as far as Ive got for now -may try some more later tonight !

 

 

 

 

 


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(@andypt007)
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Hi @mikeywilding

11.40

6f aw standard class 4

highest probability at 34% Karijini, but low odds and no value

2nd and 3rd highest probability Higher Court and Classic Pursuit 18% and 15% both showing value

also top 3 RR and top 5 in 5278 and best speed ratings.

focussing on these 3 - all have similar top speed figures on aw 1000 to 1400 yards.

Higher Court has a slightly upward trend but Karijini and Classic Pursuit stable/slight decline.

On form both Karijini and Higher Court have good recent form, Classic Pursuit not quite as strong. Karijini has won a few races easily - just touched off in last race on higher mark so may have reached peak handicap-wise. Higher Court raised in class for this race but is still improving. Based on value and potential improvement, although Karijini is by no means a weak fav Id be tempted to do a 20/80 on Higher Court with possibly a saver bet on Karijini.


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(@andypt007)
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@mikeywilding

12.30am

aw 5f class 5

Cultured Knight 38%

Kestrel Call 17%

Twentysvtlancer 13%

Mysterious Look 12%

Cultured Knight last in RR, Twentysvtlancer HIGH DSLG - DISCOUNTED

Kestrel Call - fav and not value

Mysterious Look - value but high odds

So nothing jumping out.

On speed ratings graph Kestrel Call, Mysterious Look and Jess stand out with Kestrel Call showing most improvement

Looking at form Kestrel Call dropping to 5f for first time 

Jess looks interesting in that won over 5f on first aw run then ran in a race at 6f 2 classes higher next time out , now dropped back one class and back to 5f.

Probably not enough other strong indicators for a bet but enough to put me off the stronger contenders - so no bet

 

That's my last race today but hopefully enough for you to see my current thought processes. I definitely need help in structuring my thoughts in a better way to arrive at betting conclusions - so sorry I haven't come up with bets at this point, but hopefully with a bit of refinement I can get to that point soon.

 

Andy

 

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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@andypt007 thank you for all the posts and details so far 🙂 great job.

Where I would be twitchy is if I was trying to find value myself but wasnt 100% convinced I was finding it or seeing it in an obvious way - that would make me feel a losing run was due to not finding value rather than a normal losing run.

This is one of the difficulties of betting, because we only know we have that edge over a period of time. You need to be confident in your edge before you start betting live, which is why I recommend practicing on Aldermist, and then you need to be aware that you're going to need a fair number of live selections for that edge to kick in.

I guess as we move into the PR in more detail I'd perhaps want to widen the net out beyond 4 races a day, but I suppose you are saying we may restrict races to look at by other more specific conditions where the PR odds benefit is still there but to a lesser degree rather than the 4 best PR races regardless of race type ?

This is exactly it. Start narrow on races with the least amount of factors that affect the results. When you've got them working for you, expand out into more complex puzzles. Starting with the complex puzzles adds to making it harder to get to that initial long-term profit. Once you've got it working in one, expanding out is easier because confidence in both the process and ability to do it is there.

Let me tackle the bug first:

I'm also struggling a bit getting the speed graphs to work properly - sometimes horses are showing which arent even in the race.

That shouldn't be happening, if you see it again please let me know what race and horse is appearing that shouldn't be so we can see what's causing it and get it corrected.

The results so far are:

15th April 17:50 - Fairy Mist 4th @ 5.18 (Hamis Al Bin winner @ 11.35)

15th April 16:50 - Atreus 5th @ 4.46 (Amis Reunis winner @ 12.74)

15th April 19:20 - Foxy Boy 5th @ 6.77 (Bithynia winner @ 13.26)

15th April 23:40 - Higher Court 7th @ 9.33 (Lightning Charlie winner @ 7.07 but Karijini 2nd)

16th April 12:30 - Foxy Boy 5th @ 6.77 (Bithynia winner @ 13.26)

In terms of the structure of your thinking, you have started well, it just need some refining which we will start now and may take a few rounds to get it right 🙂

I know that you want to be sure you're getting value, but for the moment I would suggest ignoring the PR Odds value indicator because I think this is putting you off selections. We will work out the value based on test selections, this can then lead us to choose how to stake. Later we can add back in the value indicator of PR Odds if necessary.

For now check horses info in this order

DSLGR - For eliminating any of the four contenders

PR Odds

5278

RR

Speed

PFP

Speed Graphs

Preference (Horse History)

For the contenders put score next to each factor (except DSLGR which is just for eliminating) between 0 and 5 (5 being best). Don't spend too long doing it, just go with your initial feeling and for now stick with that and don't change it later.

At the end look at any eliminated horse that's in top three/four of market that wasn't on your contender list and repeat the process. 

Add up your scores and see which horse is best. Any horse which wasn't already a contender (came from top three/four in market) automatically require slightly higher odds than you may have previously to bet on it, or consider it higher risk.

Now based on odds make a decision how to bet, and how many horses to bet on.

Could you try that out for a number of races and let me know if this starts to help with the thinking structure a bit please.

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(@andypt007)
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@mikeywilding

Yes I think thats starting to help. Just to deal with queries before moving on to races :-

When you say best PR odds- are you saying the lowest PR odds, the best value odds, or the highest probability ? We started by identifying the top 4 PR odds strategy as a possible "In"  ( due to my liking of value betting ) , but then we moved slightly away from that into sprint races - which I equally dont mind as an "In" as its a niche to specialise in, but I'm just a bit confused as to how we are using PR odds.

Second - when I went to the speed graph for the next race I'm looking at - the 12.00 - I got a speed graph that included the horses in the race but others as well- see attached file. 

Apart from these issues, Ive started to apply the logic. Next e mail shows my logic for the 12.00. I'm doing this pre race atm to avoid the temptation to look back differently and I'm aware I'm not giving you any data on bets to go at yet, but I think once Ive got the strategy to a certain point I can start just posting you the bets and a very brief summary and my post race analysis - I think thats where we want to get to ? but just need a strategy baseline first.

btw- I'm also starting to catch up on your previous posts/webinars -I'm keen to bring in things like standard deviation, AE ratio and I was really interest in the webinar with PFP as a start point and then building up from there EG -flat races then looking at other criteria personal to betting preference from there- Im really starting to "get it" now in terms of finding a quite high level "In" based on non public info which gives you something workable as a small edge and then building out from there. Starting to make sense !! But thats for the next stages.

 

 


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(@andypt007)
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@mikeywilding

12.00 6f AW Class 5.

Just two contenders- Oriental Lilly and Socu. Top 4 in market also brought in Almurr and Wasntexpectingthat. Id also like to bring in "Potentials" and treat them in the same way as Top 4 not contending. This brings in Kenny the Captain.

DSLG eliminates Wasntexpecingthat.

Based on roughly applying scoring to all the factors I had Oriental Lilly and Kenny the Captain as the two clear selections. Oriental Lilly and Kenny the Captain weak on 5278 but good to strong on other factors including speed. Socu weak on speed Almurr strong on 5278 but weak on other factors.

Looking at form/preferences, both are CD winners but Oriental Lilly had good recent from on AW at the distance, Kenny the Captains best form was a while ago and hasnt ran much on AW recently, so Oriental Lilly is the bet. Because Captain Kenny is a threat and Socu was strong apart from speed ( but not much prior info to go off) Id take an 20/80 bet on Oriental Lilly - good win chance and very strong place chance.

 

 


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(@andypt007)
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@mikeywilding

15.20 ( Ive ignored Apprentice and Maiden sprints for now )

CONTENDERS
Roundabout Magic
Picansort
Grand Myla

POTENTIAL ( on both price and potential list)
Raffle King
Zambezi Queen

None eliminated on DSLGR, but going through the factors Picansort was a reasonably clear preference with Roundabout Magic clear 2nd so also worthy of consideration. 

On form, Picansort tends to finish in the frame quite a bit, but does have winning history as well. Has decent form over 5f and has run with more weight than today in recent wages. Hasnt got much form to look at on Standard to Slow - had a 3rd and a last place finish - but the last place was over 6f so may not get that trip on slow ground which wont be a problem today. Roundabout Magic has no form to look at on standard to slow, has good form over 5f on AW but not much recent form and DSLGR of 173 in borderline.

Both have CD winning.

Based on the relative prices Id confidently go for a 20/80 on Picansort. If it didnt have any winning form I may have gone place only. If Roundabout Magic had strong form on Standard to Slow Id have maybe looked at that as a saver/dutch but Picansort is ahead enough for me to just take that one even at a highish price.

 


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(@andypt007)
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@mikeywilding

15.10

CONTENDERS
Tombe Girl
Freeze a Crowd

POTENTIAL
Cool Creshendo
Birra Fun

ELIMINATED TOP 4 MARKET
Lucia Sciarra
Young Windsor

No eliminations on DSLGR

On ratings Toombe Girl was clear top with Young Windsor and Cool Creshendo as possibles. Toombe Girl form not standout - but then none of others were that good either. So maybe a win bet of Toombe girl -but maybe if a horse not having at least some winning form is making me reluctant to bet maybe I should think of ruling out Class 6 sprints in the strategy ?

 


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(@andypt007)
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@mikeywilding

19.20

CONTENDERS
Another Angel
Carlovian

POTENTIAL/ALSO TOP 4 IN MARKET
Danehill Desert
Red Stripes

From ratings, Another Angel and Carlovian came out top.

On form , Carlovian didnt have much AW form, and Another angel had decent form , two recent wins now stepping up in class but won easily on last run. Swendab and Sky Gypsy were ruled out originally but look at have decent speed ratings ,but not considered.

Another Angel also looks to have the right pace proifle for the race- which is something I do want to try and bring into my calculations at some stage ( not sure how Aldermist handles pace ? ).

It doesnt necessarily feel like Another Angel represents value at the prices, but would be the bet maybe win only depending on how the place market looks.

 

 

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Morning @andypt007 I hope you had a good weekend. Thank you for all the questions and examples 🙂 I'm going to go through them one at a time:

When you say best PR odds- are you saying the lowest PR odds, the best value odds, or the highest probability ? We started by identifying the top 4 PR odds strategy as a possible "In"  ( due to my liking of value betting ) , but then we moved slightly away from that into sprint races - which I equally dont mind as an "In" as its a niche to specialise in, but I'm just a bit confused as to how we are using PR odds.

You can do this a number of ways, but I would suggest that you start with the raw probabilities, click on the PR Odds of any horse and sort by the probabilities and take the horses with the highest probabilities.

Second - when I went to the speed graph for the next race I'm looking at - the 12.00 - I got a speed graph that included the horses in the race but others as well- see attached file. 

Thank you for the example, we've found the issue and are now fixing it.

I think once Ive got the strategy to a certain point I can start just posting you the bets and a very brief summary and my post race analysis - I think thats where we want to get to ? but just need a strategy baseline first.

That's exactly it, we need to get a strong baseline initially, once we've got that baseline then we get into selections and results. Once we've got those we can then adjust the baseline, which you will then be very familiar with, to get profits. Sometimes we only need to tweak it once, sometimes we have to tweak, test selections and tweak again a few times to get it right 🙂

btw- I'm also starting to catch up on your previous posts/webinars -I'm keen to bring in things like standard deviation, AE ratio and I was really interest in the webinar with PFP as a start point and then building up from there EG -flat races then looking at other criteria personal to betting preference from there- Im really starting to "get it" now in terms of finding a quite high level "In" based on non public info which gives you something workable as a small edge and then building out from there. Starting to make sense !! But thats for the next stages.

Brilliant, when you get that 'aha' moment everything changes. Once we've got the first strategy making a 5%+ ROI you will also find this process is repeatable and you can build as many approaches as you have time to build, going one at a time, getting them just right and then moving to the next. 

On to the races...

12.00 6f AW Class 5.

Just two contenders- Oriental Lilly and Socu. Top 4 in market also brought in Almurr and Wasntexpectingthat. Id also like to bring in "Potentials" and treat them in the same way as Top 4 not contending. This brings in Kenny the Captain.

DSLG eliminates Wasntexpecingthat.

Based on roughly applying scoring to all the factors I had Oriental Lilly and Kenny the Captain as the two clear selections. Oriental Lilly and Kenny the Captain weak on 5278 but good to strong on other factors including speed. Socu weak on speed Almurr strong on 5278 but weak on other factors.

Looking at form/preferences, both are CD winners but Oriental Lilly had good recent from on AW at the distance, Kenny the Captains best form was a while ago and hasnt ran much on AW recently, so Oriental Lilly is the bet. Because Captain Kenny is a threat and Socu was strong apart from speed ( but not much prior info to go off) Id take an 20/80 bet on Oriental Lilly - good win chance and very strong place chance.

This looks a lot more structured 🙂 The race was pretty tight looking at the odds. You got the second place with Oriental Lilly. Kenny The Captain's best form proved to be accurate, being a while ago and not having run much on AW. A good summary with "Id take an 20/80 bet on Oriental Lilly - good win chance and very strong place chance."

15.20 ( Ive ignored Apprentice and Maiden sprints for now )

CONTENDERS
Roundabout Magic
Picansort
Grand Myla

POTENTIAL ( on both price and potential list)
Raffle King
Zambezi Queen

None eliminated on DSLGR, but going through the factors Picansort was a reasonably clear preference with Roundabout Magic clear 2nd so also worthy of consideration. 

On form, Picansort tends to finish in the frame quite a bit, but does have winning history as well. Has decent form over 5f and has run with more weight than today in recent wages. Hasnt got much form to look at on Standard to Slow - had a 3rd and a last place finish - but the last place was over 6f so may not get that trip on slow ground which wont be a problem today. Roundabout Magic has no form to look at on standard to slow, has good form over 5f on AW but not much recent form and DSLGR of 173 in borderline.

Both have CD winning.

Based on the relative prices Id confidently go for a 20/80 on Picansort. If it didnt have any winning form I may have gone place only. If Roundabout Magic had strong form on Standard to Slow Id have maybe looked at that as a saver/dutch but Picansort is ahead enough for me to just take that one even at a highish price.

Good to see you ignored Apprentice and Maiden's, they're much harder and well left alone for a while. This is an interesting analysis, and based on the results I have a couple of questions. The results are:

Name Finish Odds
Roundabout Magic 1 5.79
Grand Myla 2 4.09
Kyllukey 3 8.61
Raffle King 4 4.69
Zambezi Queen 5 7.02
Entertaining Ben 6 13.85
Picansort 7 10.14
Broadhaven Honey 8 19.42

From your Contenders you went into detail on Roundabout Magic and Picansort, but not Grand Myla, why did you choose to not look into Grand Myla?

You may have come up with the same result, but I think the Standard to Slow going here put you off a bit as well. I'd suggest sticking with Standard only initially, again the less factors that change in the beginning the quicker it becomes. Once you've got it working on Standard, you can start a separate test to look at getting it working on other AW going conditions 🙂

15.10

CONTENDERS
Tombe Girl
Freeze a Crowd

POTENTIAL
Cool Creshendo
Birra Fun

ELIMINATED TOP 4 MARKET
Lucia Sciarra
Young Windsor

No eliminations on DSLGR

On ratings Toombe Girl was clear top with Young Windsor and Cool Creshendo as possibles. Toombe Girl form not standout - but then none of others were that good either. So maybe a win bet of Toombe girl -but maybe if a horse not having at least some winning form is making me reluctant to bet maybe I should think of ruling out Class 6 sprints in the strategy ?

I think you may have got the time of this race wrong. You don't need to rule out class 6 races, however when you get marginal races with very little to determine, leave the race and move on. 

19.20

CONTENDERS
Another Angel
Carlovian

POTENTIAL/ALSO TOP 4 IN MARKET
Danehill Desert
Red Stripes

From ratings, Another Angel and Carlovian came out top.

On form , Carlovian didnt have much AW form, and Another angel had decent form , two recent wins now stepping up in class but won easily on last run. Swendab and Sky Gypsy were ruled out originally but look at have decent speed ratings ,but not considered.

Another Angel also looks to have the right pace proifle for the race- which is something I do want to try and bring into my calculations at some stage ( not sure how Aldermist handles pace ? ).

It doesnt necessarily feel like Another Angel represents value at the prices, but would be the bet maybe win only depending on how the place market looks.

Sky Gypsy won the race, with Astrophysics second at odds of 21.14. Another Angel came third at 2.33.

Horse Finish Odds
Sky Gypsy 1 8.65
Astrophysics 2 21.14
Another Angel 3 2.33
Danehill Desert 4 6.3
Carlovian 5 7.32
Red Stripes 6 7.77
Swendab 7 17.88
Teepee Time 8

25.78

The first question is why did you decide to not consider Sky Gypsy? It could well have been the correct decision, but you should confirm the reason why you didn't as you said he had good speed ratings and the runner was clearly on your radar.

Your summary of Another Angel looked to be pretty accurate. 

Astropohysics may well just have been one of those unpredictables. 

Another Angel also looks to have the right pace proifle for the race- which is something I do want to try and bring into my calculations at some stage ( not sure how Aldermist handles pace ? ).

Aldermist handles pace exactly like real racing 😉

I wouldn't bring pace in for no reason, you want to keep it as simple as possible, over-complicating strategies usually breaks them.

Once you've got the good baseline we need to leave it at that for a test period to get enough selections. If you're making a 5%+ ROI then I will recommend you leave it, if not we will look at the results and your notes to make the tweaks to get it there.

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