CDHamley_uk 4-Question Strategy
Bet structure takes a bit of practice to learn. It's a combination of your own comfort, risk levels, and value in odds. There isn't a rule as to when it's better to do one or the other.
With your ability to cope with up to 20 losing bets in a row, win betting shouldn't be an issue. If you feel that you'd like a higher strike rate initially then maybe look at 80/20 bets. They won't make as much profit, but as long as the place profits covers the entire stake (including win portion of the bet), then they're a viable alternative that can offer a much higher strike rate.
I am now spending one to 2 hours a day using speed graphs to analyse races and make selections. I am then thinking of running a quick monte Carlo simulation to check that I am in the right ball park.
The next day if my selection doesn't win I then review the charts to see if there was anything that I missed and that I can learn for next time.
Is there anything else that you can suggest please or should I just stick with this for now and see how I get on?
@cdhamley_uk this is excellent, I would suggest just sticking with this for now and keeping a good track of your results. Are you doing this on Aldermist or live racing?
This is on live racing but very small bets so as to not make too much of a dent in the bankroll if it goes wrong
currently the odds, horse, race stake and winnings. This allows me to track profit and loss, return on investment and hit rate.
is there anything else that I should be tracking?
@cdhamley_uk for completeness you should also track finish position, place odds, whether the horse placed or not and very importantly a couple of sentences on why you chose the selection. These couple of sentences can allow us to make more accurate adjustments to the strategy later on as we can see a summary of the reason behind the selection.
If you are not placing odds at Betfair SP then I'd recommend you keep these odds as well so you can compare whether you're beating them or not later on.
With all that we can add stats such as A/E, Chi2 etc. when we're ready to 🙂
i have just watched some of the new strategy videos and i have to say that they are very easy to follow. i have been following the Speed Graph strategy for nearly 2 weeks now and have seen a 25% hit rate. it has however identified a couple of horses with very high odds who have never looked like winning. I was therefore thinking of applying strategy 5 first and then analysing the speed graphs closely on the remaining horses and was just wondering whether you agree with this approach.
Morning, thank you, that was the aim of the new strategy videos. I will be adding advanced ones as well, which will include re-recordings of the speed graph strategy and some others that can't be broken into such clear rules.
it has however identified a couple of horses with very high odds who have never looked like winning.
This is the beauty of the speed graphs 🙂
I was therefore thinking of applying strategy 5 first and then analysing the speed graphs closely on the remaining horses and was just wondering whether you agree with this approach.
Absolutely, I think this would be a very good approach.
On the Facebook live analysis you bought up a screen which showed the horse's favoured race style and then compared this to the Pace of the race. I can't seem to find this screen and therefore i was hoping that you could point me in the right direction please? Also if there are any articles on how to utilise this alongside the race pace can you let me know where they can be found.
thanks in advance.
@cdhamley_uk absolutely no problem. I've attached a screenshot showing where the pace button is to get the overlay.
If you head to https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/training/ and look at video 8 you can see a guide on how to use it (technically).
Jump to https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ and check the archived strategy Pace Winners, and it shows a method for using the pace 🙂
And of course, any questions please let me know.
Perfect thanks I will take a look at the videos when I get a chance.