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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
28/05/2020 2:52 pm  

1. Back, place or each way.  Sometimes get involved in a lucky 15 but only when there are festivals on.

2. I usually like to have a look in the evening/night before so a couple hours then, if not, hour max during the day of racing itself.

3. I understand strike rates and losing runs so try find some value at the top end of the market, so anything over 10 losers on the trot maybe? Or a few weeks without being profitable.

4. maybe around 5? I'm not entirely convinced on betting the lower class racing unless there's a worthwhile strategy.  I'd love to find what different variables are better suited to different types of race. help specialise in certain race types.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
01/06/2020 7:25 pm  

@dbabs90 thank you for your answers, I've made this thread specifically for building out your strategy. Any questions, analysis, selections and results please put in here so we can use all that information to help adapt and adjust the method.

To keep within the comfort zone of up to 10 losers on the trot, puts us needing a 50% or higher strike rate.

I have a couple more questions:

1) What is it about lower class racing that you're not convinced about?

2) Specialisation is excellent, are there any race conditions that you prefer?

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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
01/06/2020 8:07 pm  

Thanks!

I just think the lower class racing is more unpredictable in my opinion, what gambles are going on we dont know about especially in the handicaps etc and for that reason I prefer the better racing where you know most will be there to try win a race.

Sprints or anything up to a mile I'd like to focus more on the flat and AW this season for 3yo and upwards. No novice or maidens 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
02/06/2020 10:51 am  

@dbabs90 okay great. In the future I'd like to try and convince you lower class racing can be a great place to bet 🙂

Using the speed graphs as a base approach, I think will be a strong place to start. There isn't yet a published strategy for win betting, but could you please take a look at how the speed graphs look in video 6 at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/training/

And also the Speed Graphs Lay Strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/

Whilst the above strategy is for laying, it should give you a feel for how the graphs work. After watching those two videos, if you feel comfortable learning to use this tool and starting with it as a base, I will outline an approach for Flat and AW sprints using it that we can begin with.

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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
02/06/2020 7:11 pm  

Yes I'm open to the idea of that. I've had a look through the speed graphs, I think I've got my head around them. Theres alot to look at at first!


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
03/06/2020 8:02 pm  

@dbabs90 great. There is a lot to look at when you first look at the graphs, but the key is to filtering them.

Here's where I think we should start:

Find a Flat or AW race of 6 furlongs or shorter. If a Flat race only focus on those which have good-soft, good or good-firm ground, and on AW standard only.

Filter the speed graph by max 1500 yards (distance), each of the four goings above, and the race type that matches the race you're looking at.

First of all take a note of the horses with the highest speed figure in brackets next to their name on the list. on the right-hand side. These are dynamic speed figures based on the filter and you're looking for the first big drop in ratings between two horses, any horse above this drop should be considered.

Look at these horses on the graph and look for stable or improving performances which are above the average of the other runners. If any of them match the horses in the previous step then this is a positive next to that horse.

Now go to the dynamic filter and expand out the race types to include Flat or AW, whichever one the current race is not, and see if that's changed anything. If it has go into the horses and races that have improved, or your initial contenders which have declined, by hovering over the point for each race. This brings up the conditions for the race, and you want to see the conditions which saw a decline in performance, are they very different to today. If they are then it's not such a concern, if they're not then it's a negative for the horse.

By the end of this process you should have two or three horses which will be the strongest contenders. We can then look at how we want to bet them based on the odds. For now look at following them to see if the race plays out how you thought it would.

You can accelerate the practice of this by using our LikeReal Racing platform, which means we should only need a few days practice for you to begin to get the feel for the methodology, you can share some of your analysis by writing your thoughts on a race down here, and you can keep track of how many of your selections win or place.

Let me know if that makes sense, any questions either now or in future, please let me know. Let's start building this out and getting it working for you 🙂

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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
03/06/2020 9:07 pm  

Hi Michael, thanks for this. Just so I can run through it. The aldermist race at 21:10 this evening is a flat,turf 6f sprint on good to firm ground. So ive gone into the speed graphs, used the filters you provided. Flat, turf, all 4 goings and max distance 1500 (is that right?) I have magical dreamer at rating 104, show stealer at 103 and queen in waiting at 101. Then there is a drop to Sandra's secret at 90 sonive taken the first 3 horses mentioned and looked for steady and or improving. Magical dreamer stands out as steady/ slightly improving so does show stealer but with lesser ratings. Queen in waiting seems abit erratic.

So I've gone into dynamic filter again and included flat AW also ( is that correct?) . Magical dreamer hasnt changed show stealer looked to have improved slightly, guessing due to the AW factor. Queen in waiting still seems abit erratic. Going off all that and without looking at any other ratings I think magical dreamer would be the more solid option. I maybe way off but just want to make sure I ran through the process correctly?


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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
03/06/2020 9:33 pm  

Final result show steal second magical dreamer sixth. No idea where queen of waiting came through it wasnt in the race but ended up on the speed graphs 🤣🤣

 

22.20 aldmerist race flat AW 5f standard. Following the same method above the original shortlist was 6 horses. Boom the groom royal birth and looked to be both declining. Cartography wasnt enough data to make a proper judgement. So left with athletico, george dryden and encore d'or. Particularly athletic. Steady but more importantly recent high figures above the others. Will follow through over next day or two see how I fair.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
04/06/2020 8:34 pm  

@dbabs90 this looks like a very good start. What you didn't take into account when you made your final decision was the odds of the runners. Going back to the 21:10, would you have said that Magical Dreamer was a good bet at odds of 3.81 in comparison to Show Stealer at 5.66?

You ended with two possible contenders, which is great. When you decide how to bet, this should be based on both your assessment of the horses and the odds they have. Magical Dreamer's odds represented a 26% chance of winning the race, whereas Show Stealer's odds represented an 18% chance of winning. The consideration now becomes is do you think Magical Dreamer is better enough than Show Stealer to warrant the odds saying it has a 30% better chance of winning? 

Don't forget the result of an individual race is not important, it's our long term profit that is, which is what makes the decision of how to bet important.

In the 22:20, I agree with Boom The Groom and Royal Birth. I wouldn't have dismissed Cartography for lack of data, but rather because the rating we had was poor compared to the other runners.

I can see why you then went for Atletico. Again, don't forget to check the odds before determining the best way to bet.

Now that you're starting to get the hang of it a bit, consider the confidence lines, this is the line above and below the actual rating for the horse on the graph. The more stable a horse's performance the smaller this gap. Any rating is an estimate, while it's the best estimate we have the confidence lines show the range that the rating could be between with a 95% confidence. You'll see on this race that if Atletico performed his worst, he would be below Encore D'Or's level, and Encore D'Or is more stable with a smaller range. Likewise George Dryden could be way below if he performed at his worse, or near the top if performed at his best.

This information is effectively risk information. When you see the odds, this can then get added. Would you have made the same decision knowing that if Atletico performed at his worst then the graph shows he could perform below Encore D'Or, but they both had the same odds. That's not to say you'd have bet on Encore D'Or either, because the odds were also quite short. It may be that you'd have gone for a dutch or possibly skipped the race. Take another look at it like that.

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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
06/06/2020 10:41 am  

Thanks for this Michael, appreciate the detailed response and it has helped. I've spent the last couple days trying out the graphs abit more. I'm not trying to force myself to find a selection in each aw sprint race if theres no stand out or obvious selection or selections I'm moving on.

Would you advice or have any ratings in place which you would recommend to use for these types of races? Along in conjunction with the graphs. So I can create a racecard to check/confirm my selections.

If you do, would they be a general overview of AW sprints or would they work better in handicaps/ non handicaps. High ir lower class races etc?


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
07/06/2020 8:24 pm  
Posted by: @dbabs90

I'm not trying to force myself to find a selection in each aw sprint race if theres no stand out or obvious selection or selections I'm moving on.

This is exactly how you should be doing it. Never force a selection 🙂

Posted by: @dbabs90

Would you advice or have any ratings in place which you would recommend to use for these types of races? Along in conjunction with the graphs. So I can create a racecard to check/confirm my selections.

There are indeed, but I would recommend that we don't do that yet as it will add in conflicting advice, and while that can strengthen decisions, it can also add confusion. It's not necessary to add this in to be profitable, you can be profitable on speed graphs alone, so I would suggest we stick with the speed graphs for the moment. When you've got a solid approach working with the speed graphs, or at break-even or just above, then we can look at bringing in other ratings. It may be that you're profitable enough to not bring in other ratings, and instead we can use other ratings on a second approach 😉

However, in these races speed is always going to be key. Take a look through the speed ratings at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/ratings-list/ by typing Speed into the space under Group for searching and this will show you all the speed related ratings. You can also type Raw in the search under Type so you can see just the raw ratings and not the ranks and difference from top version (although they're also available to use of course).

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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
08/06/2020 1:12 pm  

Thanks Michael, only two selections so far both on aldermist races.  

10.40 - Togoville

16.20 - Lady Nayef


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
09/06/2020 10:21 am  

A good start on the first race. For the second you should go back to the race and see if there's anything there that would have indicated why the horse came middle of the field. There won't always be, and that's fine, but the times when there would have been a way of spotting it will make a big impact on how you look at a race.

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Dale Barber
(@dbabs90)
Eminent Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 20
09/06/2020 3:39 pm  

Hi Michael, I've had a look back, I can't too much I would have done differently, maybe a few less days since its last run?

Today's selections, all aldermist races;

16.30 Kath's Lustre/Meerpat

16.50 Buying trouble/Jess 

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2145
10/06/2020 3:15 pm  
Posted by: @dbabs90

Hi Michael, I've had a look back, I can't too much I would have done differently, maybe a few less days since its last run?

That's perfectly normal, it's just important to check because the times when you can see something make a huge impact to future analysis.

Follow the Race Advisor on social media on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram. You can also find my personal accounts on Instagram and Facebook
.


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