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Gavin
(@gavinlardner)
Active Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 6
24/06/2020 9:05 pm  

Hi Michael, 

 

1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.

No real preference from back, place, dutch or 80/20. Attempt the odd lay bet if I reckon the market has it wrong on a short price runner.

​2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?

Up to 2 hours on weekday evenings (2 or 3 days a week looking at the next day's racing, will check the conditions the following day before I follow through with any selections). Saturday is my preferred day as I have more free time and can sit down to watch it also.

​3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?

Can accept a downswing of 10, if I hit 15 then I'm inclined to back off for a bit.


​4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?

I like to keep it to 3 or 4 races, maybe one selection per race mostly and then in one race I might go for a dutch bet.

 

Cheers!


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
26/06/2020 7:38 am  

@gavinlardner thank you for the detailed answers, and welcome to the forum 🙂

It sounds like, regarding bet type, you'll be best making your bet type decision on a race-by-race basis dependent on the odds and the risk you feel the bet has.

I would suggest we start with one of these two strategies:

The 3 Factor Strategy

Horse Histories Strategy

Please watch the videos at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ and let me know which you prefer.

Alternatively, we can actually use both of these together, using The 3 Factor Strategy first, and then confirming which of our contenders we're going to want to bet on using the Horse Histories strategy. This does take more time, but I think that combination may suit you better.

Once you've gone through them, please let me know here your thoughts on each of the approaches, if there's anything you don't like about or not interested in them, and what you think about using a combination of the two.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Gavin
(@gavinlardner)
Active Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 6
26/06/2020 9:20 pm  

Cheers Michael, will do!


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Gavin
(@gavinlardner)
Active Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 6
27/06/2020 1:46 pm  

If I have followed the 3 Factor strategy video correctly, we narrow the contenders down to those who are prominent in each of the Betfair market, PR Odds and the 5278 CFR? I certainly see the value of tying in the Horse Histories strategy here too..


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
29/06/2020 10:26 am  
Posted by: @gavinlardner

If I have followed the 3 Factor strategy video correctly, we narrow the contenders down to those who are prominent in each of the Betfair market, PR Odds and the 5278 CFR? I certainly see the value of tying in the Horse Histories strategy here too..

Yes, that's correct, along with DSLGR. 

That's great. Please could you go through a couple of races and post your analysis and reasons for making decisions here so I can feedback on it.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Gavin
(@gavinlardner)
Active Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 6
29/06/2020 8:11 pm  

Thanks Michael - yesterday I focused on the horse histories approach on 2 races and it served up winners in each (Pogo in Windsor and Charlie D in the 5pm at Newmarket)! Encouraging start, will blend the approaches later this week and see what transpires..


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
30/06/2020 9:35 am  

@gavinlardner great, keep us posted, and keep a track of the results. It's always best to add a note with each selection as to why you made the decision, you can then come back later and have a look at the reasoning on the selections that didn't perform as expected.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Gavin
(@gavinlardner)
Active Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 6
03/07/2020 1:54 pm  

First go at this - it's been a tricky week for finding races where the strategies combined have suggested likely winners, but I was reliant on evening races with some changeable conditions. Anyway:

 

Chepstow - 14.20 - Fieldsman (w). Form and progression in speed and class rankings marks him out

 

Chepsow - 15.20 - Le Musee / Red Royalist (dutch). Former is rightly favourite here, second pick is one of a few with decent claims but gets the nod on the back of a good recent run. 

 

May have a couple of other selections later - worth noting I'm using the speed graphs to confirm which runners look to be progressive based on the race conditions.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
03/07/2020 9:44 pm  

@gavinlardner a good result in the 15:20. Looking at the 14:20 Fieldsman didn't have the energy to push it through the final furlong. You should go back and see if there were any indications the distance/distance over ground may have been an issue.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Gavin
(@gavinlardner)
Active Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 6
12/07/2020 12:39 pm  

2 selections today as all looks good with the software again, pair of 80/20 bets:

Hamilton 14.25 - Multellie

Lingfield 14.35 - Tomshalfbrother

 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
13/07/2020 8:26 am  

@gavinlardner both looked like they ran well. Multellie couldn't keep it up in the last, and Tomshalfbrother had the same issue but managed to hold on for the place 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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