Gavin's 4-Step Strategy
There are a number of reasons that could be. Would you be able to show me an example of your analysis so I can go through it and see how you're looking at the race?
In the meantime, if you're finding the horse histories approach is working well for you, then let's split these two methods out. Continue with the horse histories stand-alone and while you're doing that we can work on the 3 Factor method and look at how to deal with these scenarios.
Will do - I'll have a look at Goodwood for tomorrow, plan to narrow down contenders using both the PR and Betfair odds. Perhaps it's a sign of competitive races if the 3 factor approach does not leave obvious contenders? I'll keep an eye out for examples where I see this happen and take a screengrab..
Perhaps it's a sign of competitive races if the 3 factor approach does not leave obvious contenders?
This will definitely be the case some of the time, possibly even the majority of the time, but probably not always. Who are you going to be following at Goodwood today?
Right, so the histories-focused approach has given me these for Goodwood today:
13.50 - Rewaayat (80/20), Treacherous (3 to be placed)
14.25 - Themaxwecan (4 to be placed)
15.35 - Lexington Dash & Atalantas Boy (both in the 5 place market)
16.25 - Mister Snowdon (80/20)
Gone for placings mostly as I found quite a few runners likely to compete, if not actually make it first past the post..
@gavinlardner choosing to try it in some uber-competitive racing 😀 I think you did pretty well with those two places, considering this is some of the most competitive racing there is.
Yeah, the Stewards cup was a proper drag race to the line indeed.. 2 for today to keep ticking over:
Leicester 15.10 - Anjah (80/20)
Leicester 15.40 - The Dancing Poet (80/20)
Well beaten in both! Oh well..
Looked at 2 for Ascot this afternoon:
15:00 - Australis
15.35 - Look Closely, Omnivega
As usual, going 80/20 on each. Now using the MC Simulator to help identify contenders before examining the histories in detail
Noticed looking at the races in recent days is that the 3 factor approach often leaves me with no obvious contenders in a race i.e. the contenders as identified by the PR probability ratings may not score well in any of the other rankings in the standard race card. In addition, a horse whose history suggests he is suited to conditions, etc. might be an 'elimination' on the PR probability %. Any thoughts as to why that might be?
This is a great question, and I've made a note to dive into it in more detail. It doesn't just appear with this approach, it appears all the time when we're looking at ratings which measure a horses performance from different angles. The reason is a horse may be strong from one angle, but not another. I liken it to a photo of a horse and building a full picture. If you take a picture of the back of the horse you don't know much. If you add a photo of the back left, the picture builds a bit. As you move around photographing the horse from all angles you start to build up a complete picture. This is the same with ratings/tools. One rating/tool measure something from one angle, it may be bad, but then from another angle it's very good, and the good and bad add up to the entire animal.
I hope that makes sense. Let me know if it's not quite clear enough.
There are many ways to deal with this. But at the moment, if you're finding the horse histories approach is working well for you and this is muddying the waters, then drop the 3 Factor approach and stick with the horse histories. You don't need to be using both to make them work. Focus on the Horse Histories, and then we can come back to the 3-Factor when you've got that working happily and are ready to start on the next foundational method.
There's no point in us muddying the waters when we can come back to it.
Thanks Michael - yeah, just a few brief cross checks and a run of the simulator to narrow down contenders is the first step I'm using. Feels my mind is clearer before examining the contenders further. Anyway, some for today:
Bath - 16:25
Balgair & Tell William (dutch)
Edgewood & Turn to Rock (dutch on win and 3 places)
Granite City Doc (80/20)