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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
05/08/2020 12:45 pm  

Hi Michael,

​1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.

I have tried most bet types but don’t like E/W as I have never seen the value. I like place market, 80/20 and dutching the best and yesterday had the following:

15.30 Beverley - Straight back on Ventura Rascal 👍 

16.00 Beverley - Place bet on Kentuckyconnection 👎 

16.30 Beverley - 80/20 on Ideal Candy 👎 

14.45 Catterick - Dutch Road to Paris, The Navigator 👍 , Well Funded and Champagne Terri also a place bet on Well Funded 👍 

20.15 Lingfield - Dutch Confrerie, Fivehundredmiles and Seaforth 👍 with a place bet on each as well

All were 8-12 horse races, picked off the data you provided using a mixed bag of processes i.e. if it had a high VDW I would weigh my choice more towards that rating. It seemed to work but I feel I need more direction to a specific plan/staking.

​2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?

Up to about 2 hours in the morning. I pick out my football bets first then move to horse racing.

​3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?

I hate losing so.... 

 

Before joining I had a system that hit (July 2020) 77% on the place market and 43% on the win market. It made 20 points profit in a month but starting August I only had 2 winning bets from 14. It was based on two ‘market leader’ horses having odds 3.00 odds  than the 3rd horse( i.e 2.38, 2.90 and third horse 6.00) and then backing the favourite 20% on win market and 80% on place market as long as the win odds were above 2.00 and place odds above 1.25.  Max odds were about 3.50.  It had a 16 race winning run on the place market and 7 race winning run on the win market. However, it also had a 7 run losing streak on the win market and 6 race losing streak on the place market (although the next most was 3). I bet on 111 races. 

 

I would say the 7 losers on the place market for a favourite was uncomfortable!

It was fine losing on the win market if the horse placed (very small profit)

 

​​4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?

No preference. I am happy to back as many as needed. 

 

As an addition I like to stick to a very rigid set of rules like I used for my previous selection process - odds needed to be above 2.00 and 1.25, had to be the favourite, 3rd horse needed to be 3.00 odds out. 

 

Sorry about the length of this post, I like to waffle….

 

Thanks, J


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
06/08/2020 1:23 pm  

Hi James, thank you for this excellent post and all the details 🙂

It sounds like you know exactly what suits you, and your losing streaks vs. your profit expectations are perfectly aligned, which is brilliant.

The downswing you experienced may have just been a downswing, so I think there's two things to do here.

You already have an approach you are using with the RA tools. Assuming you have access to the past selections of your place strategy, can you run through the races again, knowing that the two horses you are focusing on are the two favourites, and apply the current process you're using to those two horses. See if that increases or decreases strike rate and profit. Also worth testing it as win, place and 80/20 bets independently and getting the stats (SR, ROI, A/E, Chi2) for them all individually.

It makes sense to start with the strategy and process that was already working for you, but refine it a bit further and reduce the risk a bit more.

The second thing we should do is look at your staking and bankroll. How are you currently staking and to what size bankroll? Based on the 77% strike rate.

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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
06/08/2020 3:03 pm  

Hi,

 

Thank you for the reply.

 

I started as if I had a £200 bank and used 5% per race so I was backing the win market for £2 and the place market for £8. Once it looked good (7 days +£130 profit) I upped it to £3 and £12, then went on a losing streak (-£138 profit) so lowered to £2 and £8 and finally £1 and £5. 

 

This was great when the winners came regular but a 7 run losing streak wiped out a lot of the previous profit and then a dry run of winners wiped out the rest. I went from £0 profit to £130 profit between 3/7/20 - 10/7/20 then from that my balance was on -£8.65 on the 21/7 and then finished the month on £94.94.

 

Considering I initially designed this to be slow and steady profit it actually turned into a massive roller coaster. 

 

I have considered splitting it between win and place but I have no idea how to stake this?!  

Place odds wins were:

1.25 - 1.29 - 19/22 - 86%

1.30 - 1.39 - 22/30 - 73%

1.40 - 1.49 - 16/19 - 84%

1.50 - 1.59 - 22/27 - 81%

1.60 - 2.00+ - 7/14 - 50%

Clearly the sweet spot is under place odds of 1.60 but I have no idea how to make this profitable.

 

I will go through every race and run it through the RA Software and see if, like you say, I can reduce the losses. 

 

This is probably not a big enough sample size yet but work continues.

 

Many thanks

J

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
06/08/2020 6:23 pm  

@boomingj thank you for all the details. It looks like you started betting on this approach too early, it's almost impossible to become successful in horse racing if you're not full ready for the potential swings. A losing sequence of 7 bets is likely to happen at least once every six months if you have a strike rate of around 70%.

The bet structure sounds like it may have relied on the wins to make a profit, which is no problem, except the back to win bets won't have a strike rate of 70%, so the losing streak on them is potentially much longer.

I would suggest we see if this method can be taken forward, it may well be able to 🙂

The first thing is I'd like you to stop focusing on strike rates and profit. Strike rate is of interest, but only so we can determine likely losing sequence. Could you please calculate the A/E for these place bets. This is also known as PIV, and you can find the calculation for it at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/piv-is-better-than-impact-value/

Let me know what the number is for each of your odds ranges above, and also the number of selections in each range please.

Once we've got that, and you've gone through the selections using RA as an additional filter, we can look at the next step.

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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
06/08/2020 6:25 pm  

Just watched the Webinar on the method you use with low odds. Looks like I might try that for my place bets. Doubles look better for me as I have to place in the morning before 10ish so can't wait until just before off, so can't 'roll'. 

 

Tried your method as well, the rapid pick, as it seems very close to the way I select. Went for Overwrite in the 16.40 @ Bath and it was 4th... Immediately scrapped your method and moved on 🤣 🤣 

 

J

 


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
06/08/2020 7:17 pm  

Thank you for the reply. 

 

It's going to take quite some time to go through each selection and filter with RA but this is what I have done with the PIV:

Odds rangePIV of Odds RangeSelectionsWinners
1.251.2980.00%77.52%2219
1.31.3976.92%71.94%3022
1.41.4971.43%67.11%1916
1.51.5966.67%62.89%2722
1.61.6962.50%59.17%74
1.71.7958.82%55.87%31
1.81.8955.56%52.91%11
1.91.9952.63%50.25%20
2 50.00% 11
      
    11286
      
All place selections - exact odds
  70.90%  
All place selections - exact odds
  37.13%  

 

I'm not sure if this is what you need. The all %'s at the bottom is every % added up from the exact odds and divided by 112 - the amount of bets. 

 

Many thanks

J


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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
06/08/2020 7:31 pm  

Ah, between the odds ranges of 1.25 - 1.29 I am expecting 80% +77.52% =  78.76% winners, I actually had 19/22 = 86% winners.

 

This should then = success? 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
07/08/2020 11:10 am  
Posted by: @boomingj

Ah, between the odds ranges of 1.25 - 1.29 I am expecting 80% +77.52% =  78.76% winners, I actually had 19/22 = 86% winners.

 

This should then = success? 

Exactly, except you don't need to average the two figures together. Take all horses between odds of 1.25 and 1.29, and do the sum:

1 divided by odds

e.g. 1 divided by 1.25 = 0.8

Do that for every horse in the range, and then add up all the results, this is the expected number of winners for that range. 

This is important because it will show where the strategy had an advantage, based on odds ranges, and where it didn't. In place markets doing this for odds ranged will often have a bigger impact than win, and you may well have the advantage on much shorter odds horses.

Do it this way and send over the numbers again with selections, winners and expected winners for each odds range. Based on the numbers above it looks like you have a good advantage and may have stopped it too soon.

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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
07/08/2020 11:12 am  

Hi Michael

 

Just wanted to say a massive thank you for the guidance above.

 

I have analysed the figures for every bet I have placed using the above 'system' and it makes very interesting reading.

 

In the win market my expected win rate (overall) should have been 31.32% but was actually 34.91%

From the analysis I noticed a 'sweet spot' of odds in which the win rate should have been 33.53% but my actual win rate was a massive 53.21%.  

 

In the place market my overall win rate should have been 62.05% but was actually 68.71%.

Again I noticed a 'sweet spot' of odds in which the win rate should have been 71.45% but my actual win rate was 81.98%.

 

It took the amount of bets down from 111 to 97.

 

Surprisingly my worst results in the win market were for odds between 2.00 and 2.29! 

 

The best staking plan I could see was straight forward flat betting which had a massive ROI, it kept me from panicking too much because I have very few losing streaks on the place market and this kept the balance ticking over for the longer losing runs on the win market.

 

It did not seem to matter the race type, conditions, amount of runners etc in fact the only thing that made any difference were the odds.

 

I am now investigating some of your excellent systems in the hope of building a portfolio of so when this hits a losing run hopefully another system will be doing well and keep everything ticking over.

 

I was actually going to drop this system until your guidance has shown me it is actually pretty good.

 

I can't thank you enough,

J


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
07/08/2020 11:33 am  

@boomingj excellent. Now you need to get some more volume on your bets. Since it's looking pretty good across the board, I wouldn't limit odds until you have at least 100 winners in each odds range, it may take a bit of time but it will bear some statistical significance at this point.

For the wins you can expect to hit 20 losing bets in a row at least a few times in a year, and you could get 20 losers followed by a single win, followed by 15 losers, followed by a single win etc.

For the places you can expect to hit at least 8 losing bets in a row a few times in a year, and the same goes for downswings separated by a single winner.

To put that into bankroll perspective, you'd want at least 60 units for the win and 25 units for place, but for safety you may want to push that to 100 units for win and 40 units for place. Remember if you get uncomfortable should you hit a 50% drop in your bankroll, then these will need to be higher still. It doesn't matter how large your bankroll is, it's better to bet less and be able to sustain it through the losing streaks and downswings because you're comfortable.

Also keep your eye on the important stats, this is primarily A/E ratio. If you hit a big downswing look to see if the odds you are taking on horses is beating the SP, if it is and if your A/E is still looking okay, then you are almost certainly in a downswing. The more bets you have the better idea you will have of how it performs and what to expect.

Dropping methods too early is very common because most of us use stakes that we aren't comfortable with, and haven't considered how losing streaks will affect us. That's why this is always my first port of call. Winning is impossible if you can't cope with losing. If you are happy losing, winning isn't so hard!

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James Black
(@boomingj)
Active Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 16
07/08/2020 1:50 pm  

Sage advice which I will take aboard. 

 

I have now watched all the videos and started mentally preparing myself.  I will be depositing £280 into a Betfair account just to run this system with the thought of using £2 a unit. 

 

This should give me plenty to cope with any downswing and enough to keep going until I have enough volume to analyse it all again (100 bets in each odds range)

 

I will increase the unit size to £3 once/if I hit £420 and hope I don't hit the downswing at the point of switching. 

 

Many thanks

J


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(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2405
07/08/2020 9:52 pm  

@boomingj excellent, take out 30% of any new high bankroll profit each day you have it. You should always remove something, even if it's just a few pounds, it makes a huge psychological difference.

Please keep us posted here with selections and/or results 🙂

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