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Jmcc1002 First Foundational Strategy  


James McCarthy
(@jmcc1002)
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Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 5
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Hi Michael

Bet type is varied - the only thing I don’t do is lay

3-4 hours a day

I usually look for 4-5 selections a day and would stop betting after the same amount of losers

I usually concentrate on higher class of racing for that day with max runners of 10.

Thanks for the support 👍🏻👍🏻

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
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Hi @jmcc1002 thank you for the answers to the questions, welcome to the community it's great to have you here. I've made this thread for this foundational strategy, but please do feel free to comment or start other threads.

Three to four hours a day is a great amount of time. Regarding the consecutive losing streaks, that makes sense, would you also be able to let me know how big a downswing, or how many days of losing streaks in a row before you'd start to lose faith or feel uncomfortable with a strategy?

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James McCarthy
(@jmcc1002)
Active Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 5
Topic starter  

Hi Michael,

Thanks for the swift reply!  In response to your question in all honesty I suppose that would depend on how the strategy had performed.  If I had had previous success with it I would be inclined to stick with it for a bit longer than if it was a new strategy and producing losers from the outset.

If it was the former I would give it a 2 week/3week period (depending on finances) to turn around.

Currently I am in my first month with RA so have been trying the various strategies and have even tried combining a few together to find winners - some days are better than others!! The difficulty I have had is when there are 3 selections as I have only ever dutched with two selections and on a few occasions now have bet on the wrong two and left the eventual winner.

Another area I feel I need to improve is my staking to ensure I come away with profit more often - I think that may be a confidence issue as well maybe.

Hope that helps.

Regards

James.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
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Thanks for the extra info James. It sounds like you've already been testing out some strategies, which is great.

Which one/s are you favouring? We can work on those together.

When you dutch two selections instead of three, are you removing the third horse because you don't think it has a strong chance of winning, or are you removing it because you only want to dutch two?

Bet structure and staking is an often overlooked piece of the puzzle. Let me know what you are currently doing.

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James McCarthy
(@jmcc1002)
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Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 5
Topic starter  

Hi Michael,

I have been using a combination of:

Speed Hurdle on Turf

VDW

3 factor strategy

Quick start 

Pace strategy

I have also watched a lot of the recordings of live events on Youtube and made a lot of notes around the information that suits my angle at selecting winners.

For example videos like the making profit case study, PFP ratings and connections.

Mainly I have been back and betting the place (small stakes to start) but I just think my staking is wrong as two losers seems to do more damage than actually getting two winners does good!!

Ideally I would only dutch 2 to save on the third stake and more often than not this is the reason for not backing a third but sometimes I try to make an informed decision based around the ratings or the strategies.

Hope that helps.

James.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Okay, let's start by looking at your current staking. Would you be able to share you results so far so I can see the breakdown of selections and how you're staking them.

Posted by: @jmcc1002

Ideally I would only dutch 2 to save on the third stake and more often than not this is the reason for not backing a third but sometimes I try to make an informed decision based around the ratings or the strategies.

You shouldn't remove a horse purely to save on stake. It should always be because it's not offering enough value with the third runner or the horse isn't strong enough. Remember we're aiming to make a 5%+ ROI, don't try and get more than that, if you do it's great, but getting a 5% on turnover is huge and sustainable. In a dutch bet use this as your base, if you're making more than 5% then you're probably doing alright. That will open up a different way of seeing things. Once we hit a 5% ROI long-term we stop adjusting the method because we're more likely to break it than improve it.

I'll go through how you're currently staking when you have a chance to send over your results 🙂

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James McCarthy
(@jmcc1002)
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Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 5
Topic starter  

Hi Michael - Happy New Year and hope your well? Apologies for the length of time in replying!! Work has been a bit manic and I’ve been trying different things out regarding systems and bets.

I have taken a fair bit of time to analyse certain types of races using the export data function on the home page. It has proved very interesting and I have enjoyed doing it.  I have carried out A/E calculations to gauge which ratings may prove the most beneficial as well.

I have tried to attach my summarised findings but can’t seem to find that option. The majority of my study centres around the AW. I have also started on hurdle races between 2m - 2m2f.

Basically I noticed that there was a good relationship first of all when selecting the first four in the market and horses with VDW form of between 95-100. The other ratings I use are Rnk ratings apart from DSLGR.

I have summarised the selected ratings below:

AW 5f-1m

image

AW 1m +

image

Hurdle Turf 2m-2m2f

image

 

image

Since using this data to whittle down selections I have had a modicum of success and think the place market could be the way to go as well.

 

I was just wondering if you answer a few questions and maybe offer some advice now please.

- Firstly am I on the right track with this type of approach?
- Are the A/E ratios big enough to gain long term profit? Should I look for bigger ratios?
- Sometimes there will be more than 1 horse that fits into all criteria so should I use a post data style tick system to further narrow down or back both or leave the race alone?
- If a horse has no value yet for VDW form should it be assumed as 100 or just discount?
- Is there anything else you would recommend me doing or trying to further enhance this analysis.

Look forward to hearing from you

Regards

James


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(@mikeywilding)
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@jmcc1002 great to hear from you, and looks like excellent work 🙂

In answer to your questions:

Posted by: @jmcc1002

- Firstly am I on the right track with this type of approach?

Absolutely on the right track 🙂

Posted by: @jmcc1002

- Are the A/E ratios big enough to gain long term profit? Should I look for bigger ratios?

They certainly are, I look for 1.05 or higher generally.

Posted by: @jmcc1002

- Sometimes there will be more than 1 horse that fits into all criteria so should I use a post data style tick system to further narrow down or back both or leave the race alone?

I would recommend that you use the FMFR Method on them. In fact, I would recommend you use it on all the selections. If you still have two selections, you can stake both based on the odds as shown in the post at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/how-staking-will-increase-your-profit/

Posted by: @jmcc1002

- If a horse has no value yet for VDW form should it be assumed as 100 or just discount?

Don't assume 100. It means the form is probably poor, definitely use the FMFR Method and treat with caution. Having said that, you can build strategies based on horses that don't have a rating 😉

Posted by: @jmcc1002

- Is there anything else you would recommend me doing or trying to further enhance this analysis.

With these types of figures, I wouldn't do anything else. If they hold up under place betting, then consider using that market initially to get the strike rate, but they won't always hold up with a different bet type. I would strongly recommend using the FMFR Method on all the contenders, this can make a big difference.

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James McCarthy
(@jmcc1002)
Active Member
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 5
Topic starter  

Hi Michael

 

Thanks for your response and advice. I have back tested and expanded the test to more data now right the way back to July 1st. Please see below for results. This is for AW races between 5f - 1m.

No of runners 4-10

Top 3 in market

Odds between 1.5 - 8

VDW form - 95-100

DSLGR 2-32

5278 1-4

RnkShorbes365 1-3

RnkSpdfigAdj 1-2

RnkShorpro 1-3

RnkDraw 1-6

Rnk JOR 1-3

 

12/10 = 1.2 = Strike rate = 12/31 = 38.7%

 

 

RnkSpdfigLR 1-3 = 1.16 = Strike rate = 37.9%

 

 

RnkSPDFIGLR 1-2 = 11/9 = 1.22 = Strike rate = 11/27 = 40.74%

I suppose the real test is now being patient and disciplined enough to wait for the selections when they occur!!!

Regards

 

James

 

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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@jmcc1002 and while waiting you can build out another 🙂

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