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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
24/06/2020 12:47 pm  

Back to Win

Around 1-2 hrs per Day

Long losing streaks I get uncomfortable

Roughly 2-4 selections per Day

All races


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
26/06/2020 7:30 am  

@johnokav welcome to the community, it's great to have you here 🙂 Thank you for your answers, we're going to use this thread for your strategy, any questions, analysis and results for this strategy please put in here. But please also do use the rest of the forum for anything else!

When you say long losing streaks make you uncomfortable, what do you consider to be a long losing streak?

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
26/06/2020 10:18 am  

Hi Michael,

 

A losing streak from 10 losses to 20 losses after that things fall apart ie strategy and bank roll .


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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
26/06/2020 10:48 am  

Hi Michael,

 

just a quick question,

When you have VDW Place 100% , doe's that mean that the top rated horse in the past has placed 100% of the time.

If we take 14.55 Doncaster today, it has VDW Place 100% , would Magical Morning be likely to place from past stats, cheers John 


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
27/06/2020 7:36 am  
Posted by: @johnokav

Hi Michael,

 

A losing streak from 10 losses to 20 losses after that things fall apart ie strategy and bank roll .

Thank you, that means we want at least a 30% strike rate (expected losing streaks of 20). It may also be worth talking about staking and bankroll, if we're expecting to get losing streaks of 20 then your bankroll should be well in tact if that happens.

When you have VDW Place 100% , doe's that mean that the top rated horse in the past has placed 100% of the time.

If we take 14.55 Doncaster today, it has VDW Place 100% , would Magical Morning be likely to place from past stats, cheers John 

It means that at least one of the top four VDW Score horses has placed in similar races in the past.

Which gives us a great place to start with your base strategy. Please could you watch VDW Strategy at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/ and let me know if you're happy to use that as your base approach.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
27/06/2020 10:12 am  

Thanks Michael,

Happy to use the VDW as a base strategy, cheers


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
29/06/2020 10:17 am  

@johnokav great, if you're happy with it as it is, could I ask you to run through two races first please and put your thinking of how you analysed them here so I can take a look. If you want to do it quicker, you can also use Aldermist to do this analysis on. I'll then feedback to you on how you're using the strategy, and ask you to do another two races. When we're starting to get comfortable with the approach I'll ask you to do a few more than two so we can begin to get some results information coming back 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
29/06/2020 11:45 am  

Thanks Michael,

 

Thanks for the challenge '

I'll keep this simple and see what we come up with.

First

1) Select race - i'm choosing a race without non-starters

Thirsk race 2 has good race history and a VDW Place 89%

2) Top 4 on VDW

You're Cool

Warrior's Valley

Hello Girl

Sambucca Spirit

3)  VDW Form  Ablilty Score  VDW Score

Quick observation show's Sambucca Spirit has best form and score and is the only horse under double figures on Betfair

 

4) Selection: "Sambucca Spirit" although second up won comfortably first up , has support on betfair 

 

Second 

1) Thirsk race 6

 

2) Top 4 

Round The Island

Lucky Lodge

 
 
3) Form Ability Score:
 
Moretti has the Form and Score , hoping the drop in distance will suit, has won 2 from last 4 races.
 
4) Selection : Moretti
 
There you have a pretty simple system, lets see how these 2 selections go, cheers 

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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
30/06/2020 5:02 am  

Hi Michael,

 

Looks like we had a winner and a second placing from that quick strategy, I have had a look at today's races and applied the same principals to a few races.

 

Race 10 @ Doncaster looks a standout race with Revolver number 1 looking the goods.

1 Choose best race's

2 Pick Top 4 VDW , check betfair Odds in comparison

3 Check VDW Form  ,  Ability   ,  Score ,  compare best or standout horse's

4 Check today's conditions and Distance , see which horse's handle the conditions.

5 Make Selection

 

There's a little more too it in analyzing each step 1 to 4 (You get a feeling for the race) , but I can use them as a guideline. 

 

Cheers


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
30/06/2020 9:38 am  

@johnokav superb, please make sure you keep track of your results. Simple is almost always the best 🙂

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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JOHN KAVANAGH
(@johnokav)
Active Member
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 7
30/06/2020 11:16 am  

Thanks Michael,

 

Simple makes life a lot easy too.

 

Selections today: Doncaster r10 n1 REVOLVER

                          Musselburgh r7 n5 MOONLIGHTING

 


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