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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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27/06/2020 7:32 am  
Posted by: @ladymansean
Posted by: @mikeywilding

@ladymansean how are the results looking so far?

 

1593157979-IMG_20200626_085023.png

Still early days, but a good start with just over a 2% ROI. Your A/E needs adjusting as you're calculating it for win bets. The calculation for expected winners should be 1-(1/odds), that will give you an A/E of 1.06 I think, which is also positive.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
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27/06/2020 8:51 am  

Am having some probs getting my head round this lol - could you show me what the A/E for the first entry 'Verify' would work out at please - then I can work out the rest from there? Thank you for your advice.


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Sean Ladyman
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27/06/2020 10:14 am  

27-Jun 15:00 Newcastle Aloe Vera

 


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Sean Ladyman
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27/06/2020 2:53 pm  

20:00 Lingfield Noble Fox


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Sean Ladyman
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28/06/2020 12:16 pm  

28-Jun 12:35 Hamilton Ballyare
28-Jun 13:10 Hamilton Van Gerwen


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Sean Ladyman
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28/06/2020 2:12 pm  
 

 

1593157979-IMG_20200626_085023.png

In this table I am recording the winning lays as 1 and losing lays as 0 under 'result/bet' column. The odds are the lay odds I placed the bets at. The A/E column I have got the result of 1 divided by the odds times 98 (to allow for 2% betfair commission). The 'expected' column I have the running totals of previous A/E column. With the 'actual' column being the running total of winning lay bets.

Sorry to be so pedantic, but could you please point out where I have gone wrong - and what the sum should be, so I can amend my spreadsheet.

The £1 level staking is just for clarity so that I can see whether the system is providing a profit, and in future whether I will benefit from using a different staking plan.

Any help really appreciated, I am enjoying this way of following bets as it has made me concentrate on one way of identifying selections as opposed to continually adjusting.


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AndrewP
(@andrewp)
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28/06/2020 3:03 pm  

Hi Sean,

As Michael said, your A/E is in fact the winning chance indicated by the odds (e.g. 4 = 0.25). You need 1 minus this (so 4 = 0.75).

Also, you need to ignore commission for the purposes of calculating A/E as you want the total of horses chances for the race to be as close to 1 for the race as possible.

I've attached a demo sheet with correctly labelled columns.


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Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
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28/06/2020 7:13 pm  
Posted by: @andrewp

Hi Sean,

As Michael said, your A/E is in fact the winning chance indicated by the odds (e.g. 4 = 0.25). You need 1 minus this (so 4 = 0.75).

Also, you need to ignore commission for the purposes of calculating A/E as you want the total of horses chances for the race to be as close to 1 for the race as possible.

I've attached a demo sheet with correctly labelled columns.

That is absolutely fantastic, thank you so much


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
29/06/2020 10:47 am  

@ladymansean great to see @andrewp got to this before me 🙂 hope all makes sense now.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
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Posts: 57
29/06/2020 6:28 pm  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

@ladymansean great to see @andrewp got to this before me 🙂 hope all makes sense now.

Yes that was just what I needed, sometimes it's easier to understand with an example. I found your blog on A/E calculations really helpful but obviously wasn't applying it correctly with regard to lay betting strategy. My selection for today is:

29-Jun 20:30 Thirsk - Boston George


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Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
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30/06/2020 7:22 pm  

30-Jun 20:30 Chepstow - Hammy End @ 4.1


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Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
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01/07/2020 7:38 pm  

01-Jul 19:45 Kempton A/W Jack Dor


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Sean Ladyman
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02/07/2020 8:08 pm  

02-Jul 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW) Kybosh

I'm hoping that Oisin Murphy will attract some betting to lower the odds, if I can get max of 4.0 then this is my choice for today


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Sean Ladyman
(@ladymansean)
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03/07/2020 10:20 am  

03-Jul 13:15 Chepstow Avenue of Stars
03-Jul 13:30 Haydock Autumn Flight


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Sean Ladyman
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04/07/2020 9:01 am  

04-Jul 12:30 Haydock Blazing Hot

I think this will be closely run between Blazing Hot & Triple Spear with the latter having the slight edge, so am going against the fav (again)


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