@ladymansean how are the results looking so far?

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Still early days, but a good start with just over a 2% ROI. Your A/E needs adjusting as you're calculating it for win bets. The calculation for expected winners should be 1-(1/odds), that will give you an A/E of 1.06 I think, which is also positive.

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Am having some probs getting my head round this lol - could you show me what the A/E for the first entry 'Verify' would work out at please - then I can work out the rest from there? Thank you for your advice.

27-Jun 15:00 Newcastle Aloe Vera

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20:00 Lingfield Noble Fox

28-Jun 12:35 Hamilton Ballyare

28-Jun 13:10 Hamilton Van Gerwen

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In this table I am recording the winning lays as 1 and losing lays as 0 under 'result/bet' column. The odds are the lay odds I placed the bets at. The A/E column I have got the result of 1 divided by the odds times 98 (to allow for 2% betfair commission). The 'expected' column I have the running totals of previous A/E column. With the 'actual' column being the running total of winning lay bets.

Sorry to be so pedantic, but could you please point out where I have gone wrong - and what the sum should be, so I can amend my spreadsheet.

The Â£1 level staking is just for clarity so that I can see whether the system is providing a profit, and in future whether I will benefit from using a different staking plan.

Any help really appreciated, I am enjoying this way of following bets as it has made me concentrate on one way of identifying selections as opposed to continually adjusting.

Hi Sean,

As Michael said, your A/E is in fact the winning chance indicated by the odds (e.g. 4 = 0.25). You need 1 minus this (so 4 = 0.75).

Also, you need to ignore commission for the purposes of calculating A/E as you want the total of horses chances for the race to be as close to 1 for the race as possible.

I've attached a demo sheet with correctly labelled columns.

Hi Sean,

As Michael said, your A/E is in fact the winning chance indicated by the odds (e.g. 4 = 0.25). You need 1 minus this (so 4 = 0.75).

Also, you need to ignore commission for the purposes of calculating A/E as you want the total of horses chances for the race to be as close to 1 for the race as possible.

I've attached a demo sheet with correctly labelled columns.

That is absolutely fantastic, thank you so much

@ladymansean great to see @andrewp got to this before me ðŸ™‚ hope all makes sense now.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.

@ladymansean great to see @andrewp got to this before me ðŸ™‚ hope all makes sense now.

Yes that was just what I needed, sometimes it's easier to understand with an example. I found your blog on A/E calculations really helpful but obviously wasn't applying it correctly with regard to lay betting strategy. My selection for today is:

29-Jun 20:30 Thirsk - Boston George

02-Jul 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW) Kybosh

I'm hoping that Oisin Murphy will attract some betting to lower the odds, if I can get max of 4.0 then this is my choice for today

03-Jul 13:15 Chepstow Avenue of Stars

03-Jul 13:30 Haydock Autumn Flight

04-Jul 12:30 Haydock Blazing Hot

I think this will be closely run between Blazing Hot & Triple Spear with the latter having the slight edge, so am going against the fav (again)