Mark P's 4-Step Strategy
2) plenty of time when on days off. Not much when working. I work 4 on 4 off
- 3 ) I prefer not too much of a downswing but if I know a strategy is worthwhile I have the mental strength to stick with it.
- 4 ) 3
@mark-powell I've made this thread specifically for your strategy. Please use it to ask any questions as we build it out, put selections and results in etc. It keeps everything in one place, which makes it easier to go back and adjust the approach later on 🙂
I'm going to push you a bit to put a number on how many losers in a row until you start to get uncomfortable, as this is one of the key areas to make sure we aim to not hit, as getting uncomfortable with losing streaks is one of the most common reasons for stopping using a strategy, even if it's within a statistically normal length for the approach.
Maybe 5. I dont really know as it depends on what odds I am looking at etc
@mark-powell let's start with five. It's really important to have a good idea of this number, as it will determine the type of strategy and bets that you place. It's critical to do it this way round, rather than doing it dependent on the odds, because it means we're building an approach that you will be comfortable using and sticking with when that losing streak eventually hits.
A losing streak of five means we're looking for a method that wins around 75% of all it's bets, and you're likely to have this happen around once per year (assuming an average of 3 bets per day). Of course the downswing potentials are longer as you can have a few losers, followed by a single winner, followed by a few losers etc.
The good news is that a strike rate of 75% for lay bets should be achievable 🙂
As your base strategy, the one we're going to start with and then adjust to suit you over time, I'd like to look at using a reverse version of our VDW Strategy. Please can you watch the VDW Strategy video at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/instant-strategies/
We'll look at finding the races where the VDW race scores are not predicted to be as effective, and then using these and the VDW scores, in combination with the PR Odds and Speed Graphs, to determine the selections to lay.
Once you've taken a look at the video, please let me know if, in general, you like the sound of the approach. If you do then I will go into more details on how to start doing it, if not please let me know what you're not so keen on so I can look into a different method.