Matt Caffrey 4-Step Strategy
If you'd like me to help you adapt and adjust our betting strategies to suit you personally, the very first thing to do is answer these four questions:
1) What type of bet do you prefer? Back, Lay, Place, Each Way, Dutch, 80/20 etc.
2) How much time do you have available on days you bet to find selections?
3) After how much time in a downswing do you start to become uncomfortable?
4) How many selections do you like, roughly, in a day?
If you have any preference for specific races, then please also include these in your answer 🙂
Once you've posted your answers, I will create a new thread for you with the words 4-Point in it with them (so I can keep track of your answers and what we're building out for you) and recommend a strategy to start with.
Take this strategy and update it in the thread, tracking your results, and we can adapt it together to get your profitable.
When I am up to date there will be no pending messages in this thread as they will all have been moved to their own threads 🙂
I look forward to your advice and getting set up with a good reliable strategy.
1) I am pretty open minded, but I think that I would probably prefer to BACK single or dutch - I assume with dutching you have more chance of getting a winner more often?
2) I work full time so hopefully there is a strategy where I can either check the evening before OR early on in the morning prior to work or at lunch time to put the bets on. I would need to study the night before though ideally.
3) I generally look towards the long term picture so I think I could cope with a downswing - I have them in my football betting although thankfully they are pretty low.. Although I assume after around 10 or so for the confidence maybe that would possibly start getting psychologically challenging.
4) I am open minded with the selections amount. As long as my bank is protected to account for downswings then I am good. It will depend on how many bets I can place the evening prior or early morning.
I am familiar with betting on horses although I have never really used a strategy per say for the horses. Football is a different story as I am experienced but now want to really learn the ropes for the horses.
I look forward to hearing from you in the future.
Welcome to the community @mattcaffrey, great to have you hear 🙂
Thank you for the answers to the questions. You're right, in dutching we spread our stake across multiple horses, so we win more often, but our returns are lower. However, it's important to get the right strike rate to be able to stick through losing streaks.
With a maximum losing streak of 10, we want to aim for a strike rate of 50% or higher. We could get this by betting short odds and odds-on horses to win, dutching, place betting or 80/20 bets. This is completely normal, most of us can only cope with between 5 and 10 losers in a row.
I would recommend we use either the PR Odds or VDW strategy as your first foundational strategy. The PR Odds one will find selections that are short or odds on, and we can bet on these to win or place. We can also potentially use these in accumulators or exotic bets as well to increase the returns. However I suggest this is only done once we've got them profitable at lower odds. The VDW strategy I would suggest we use to find selections for place betting.
Take a watch of both and let me know which one you'd prefer to start with.
@mikeywilding - Thanks for the recommendations. I have had a little time to go through the videos Michael. The strategy that appeals to me the most is the PR odds one. I like the fact that there are only a handful of horses to really concentrate on and study.
I look forward to your advice for the next step. BW
Perfect, let's begin with the PR Odds strategy. This is one of my personal favourite methods, you'll see me using it, or the base structure of it, in a lot of my analysis videos.
The first thing to do is go through a single race, Aldermist or live, and post your analysis here please. That will allow me to see how you're looking at the races and how you're considering the factors. I will then give you feedback on it, and ask you to do another race. We'll do that a few times.