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(@balimaar)
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08/11/2020 11:24 am  

I'll see how RoF affects things. Thanks Michael.

Oh and while I'm here, is there a way to 'copy' a race card?

Since literally the only change I'm making to the pre-made card is adding on RoF it would be a lot easier for yours truly to simply create a copy of the card I use and add RoF on.


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(@balimaar)
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09/11/2020 4:21 am  

Also how regular is it that a horse runs the next day after a good race?

Phoenix Dawn is up for another run today after running a close second yesterday and according to all metrics (including current BF Odds) promises another good run.

A half glance at today's field suggests a slightly weaker field but to me it seems strange a horse would run 2 days in a row.


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(@andrewp)
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09/11/2020 9:02 am  

It's not unheard of Michael but keep an eye on the non-runners today. Connections will see how he is this morning and make a decision.

Phoenix Dawn holds entries in three races this week and will almost certainly run another race under penalty before Saturday when the handicapper will catch up with him. If the horse is fit it will probably run well but the market will factor this into the odds.


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(@mikeywilding)
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09/11/2020 10:28 am  
Posted by: @balimaar

Oh and while I'm here, is there a way to 'copy' a race card?

No there isn't currently a way to do this, I've added it to our development schedule.

Posted by: @balimaar

Also how regular is it that a horse runs the next day after a good race?

Interesting question. In our database there are 794 occurrences, out of 864281 horses, where a horse ran on consecutive days (i.e. DSLR <= '1'). On these occasions 134 of the horses won. They made a profit of +206 units and had an A/E of 1.18 and a 16.90% strike rate.

There were 328 horses who were running with a DSLGR <=1. Of these 93 won for a 28% strike rate. They made a profit of +153.99 units and had an A/E of 1.25.

I think you just found a nice angle 😉 Over seven years of data this means about 46 horses for DSLGR per year, or 3 to 4 per month.

This post was modified 3 weeks ago by Michael Wilding

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(@michael-clarke)
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10/11/2020 12:15 am  

@mikeywilding

Horses that return quickly is one of the few systems that seems to have stood the test of time. The one I used for the flat was based on DSLR < 7, whether it had run well or not didn't seem to make much difference.

There is one guy on another forum who has been using the same system for 17 years and it continues to churn out profits, even at SP.


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(@balimaar)
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16/11/2020 2:12 pm  

In a bit of a slump at the moment. I'm picking a fair amount of wins and places but recently I seem to be always 1 less than the expected winners. I am due to reach win 100 soon with my 'without pace' method.

Since hitting the 50 win milestone I have fallen from having a 28% edge down to around a 4% edge. Mind you the MC method I am measuring myself against is also struggling and we are more or less neck and neck for A/E figures. I look forward to reaching win 100 and posting up my spreadsheet for you to look at @mikeywilding

I am looking ahead now to the run to 100 with pace method.

So I am thinking of doing the following:

(1) Actually using horse history, I never did in my w/o pace method. It didn't occur to me until I reached 30 wins that I should have from the start. I didn't want to restart (ok that was lazy I probably should have) and I also didn't want to risk the integrity of my figures by suddenly including another variable in the elimination process. I spent too long in my science classes learning how to conduct 'fair tests' to ignore it lol.

(2) This next thing is a bit of a change up from how I have been using MC. In the 'without pace' method. I have merely been eliminating manually DSLGR>180 and then using MC sims to eliminate horses until I reach an undisputed leader (i.e. one horse is +10% of the rest).

This time I am thinking of NOT eliminating any horse prior to the initial MC run (so have the entire field). Then eliminate horses as I always have been. If I reach a situation where MC only has horses after elims DSLGR>180 I will consider this race as a race where MC does not make a selection.

 

Well that make sense to me at any rate haha.


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(@mikeywilding)
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16/11/2020 4:09 pm  
Posted by: @balimaar

Since hitting the 50 win milestone I have fallen from having a 28% edge down to around a 4% edge.

A 28% edge is very unlikely to be sustainable, a 4% edge is a far more realistic long-term figure. I wouldn't worry about this unduly.

Posted by: @balimaar

(1) Actually using horse history, I never did in my w/o pace method. It didn't occur to me until I reached 30 wins that I should have from the start. I didn't want to restart (ok that was lazy I probably should have) and I also didn't want to risk the integrity of my figures by suddenly including another variable in the elimination process. I spent too long in my science classes learning how to conduct 'fair tests' to ignore it lol.

This takes a bit more time, but with practice it is one of the quickest ways to take contenders and make them profitable. As you know I recommend doing this with all contenders.

Posted by: @balimaar

This time I am thinking of NOT eliminating any horse prior to the initial MC run (so have the entire field). Then eliminate horses as I always have been. If I reach a situation where MC only has horses after elims DSLGR>180 I will consider this race as a race where MC does not make a selection.

Again, another interesting test. I'd run this alongside keeping the same going. I certainly wouldn't think about stopping a strategy that generates a 4% edge, you'll be coming back towards the average.

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(@balimaar)
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24/11/2020 1:40 am  

So I'm back again now things have settled down in my state. COVID tried to make a return but thankfully the authorities clamped down hard and fast. We'll be back to normal life (more or less) come December 1 (hooray!)

I work in Aged Care and as soon as the state went into lockdown, work schedules had to change so that people only worked in one area for the duration. I picked up a number of shifts and wow after a hard week ive finally had a decent sleep 😀

So I've finally managed to get around to studying my selections from this time last week. I'm glad to say my first selection for the day is a winner but I find myself confused by the notes on the horse for the race.

Forum 1

Specifically, I am confused by the "4 out omitted". What does that mean?

This post was modified 6 days ago by Michael Steber

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(@andrewp)
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24/11/2020 7:39 am  

A hurdle was damaged on the first circuit so was omitted on the final lap Michael.

"First hurdle on the final circuit omitted (damaged on previous circuit)"

https://www.racingpost.com/results/18/fakenham/2020-11-17/769388


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(@mikeywilding)
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24/11/2020 9:10 am  

@balimaar isn't it amazing what a difference a good night sleep makes!

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(@balimaar)
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24/11/2020 11:20 am  

Fairly certain that (unless I have a disaster of a day) that I'll be uploading the sheet with my 100 wins come tomorrow morning 🙂

Then it will be off to the next step. Starting again on another road to 100 wins this time using pace information, with horse history.

Running alongside that will be my existing MC method.

Running alongside each of the above will be an alternate MC method where I include the whole field.

Posted by: @andrewp

A hurdle was damaged on the first circuit so was omitted on the final lap Michael.

Thank you Andrew!

Posted by: @mikeywilding

@balimaar isn't it amazing what a difference a good night sleep makes!

Too true! On the last couple days of this hell week I felt like I was perpetually drunk. Thankfully the area I was 'locked' in to work in had residents that don't really require much looking after aside from breaking up the occasional verbal stoush, helping one or two with meals... otherwise it was pretty chill.

But still exhausting. I do feel though for my colleagues in the more intense areas. It would have been a real strain on them.


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(@balimaar)
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25/11/2020 12:39 am  

Did not have the best of days but am calling it close enough to 100. Here's the sheet:

 


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(@balimaar)
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25/11/2020 12:40 am  

take2


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(@balimaar)
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25/11/2020 12:43 am  

take3?

(failed)

 

I give up lol. cant upload the sheet.

 


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(@balimaar)
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25/11/2020 1:42 am  

Imported my spreadsheet into Google Sheets.

Here is the link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eVVZ5kL8cyvmqm9YdDEQCvmDbSZrn8Zbp-JqE9_aRK0/edit?usp=sharing


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