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(@mikeywilding)
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@balimaar thank you for sharing, sometimes the forum thinks a spreadsheet is a potential program although I've allowed XLS and XLSX files. 

I'm going to be a PIA, any chance you can add a summary statistics page to it 😀

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(@balimaar)
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Posted by: @mikeywilding

@balimaar thank you for sharing, sometimes the forum thinks a spreadsheet is a potential program although I've allowed XLS and XLSX files. 

I'm going to be a PIA, any chance you can add a summary statistics page to it 😀

No worries. Can I ask what sort of summary you would like to see?


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(@mikeywilding)
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@balimaar the stats for the entire timeframe. Unless they're there and I'm missing them?

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(@balimaar)
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Posted by: @mikeywilding

@balimaar the stats for the entire timeframe. Unless they're there and I'm missing them?

G'Day from down under 🙂

They were there but I've created a new sheet in that GoogleSheet so what you were looking for is in a prominent spot and everything should be pretty self explanatory with my added on notes.

 


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(@mikeywilding)
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@balimaar thank you. It's looking pretty solid 🙂 keep doing more of the same. What's the ROI on it?

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(@balimaar)
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That's one thing I haven't kept a track of.

I do of course have the odds for every selection so its something I could work out. How would you do it?


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(@balimaar)
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I also had to fix my formulas on the Calculations page. For some reason during the upload, the formulae broke.

 

But its all good now.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Posted by: @balimaar

That's one thing I haven't kept a track of.

I do of course have the odds for every selection so its something I could work out. How would you do it?

To do this, work out your profit, then you divide your profit by the total staked (if lay bets then the total risked). Multiply the result to get a percentage.

i.e. if you had a profit of £25 and had staked £250, then you would do:

25 / 250 = 0.10

0.10 x 100 = 10%

The ROI is 10%.

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(@balimaar)
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Still working on the RoI. Have to go over quite a few bets and crunch the numbers haha.

This 'with pace' method is shaping up to be quite interesting. I am selecting fewer horses but the figures are showing so far a slight improvement over the times I was not using pace and horse history.


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(@balimaar)
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@mikeywilding here is the information. to calculate the bets I would have placed I used your strategy you linked me some time ago.

I base the total bet I am about to place on the winning odds. Then I calculate 20% of that total and that is my 'to win' bet and the remaining 80% is the 'to place' bet.

Here is a pic with summarised information and a few graphs to make visual interpretation easier.

EDIT: To see the whole thing properly you may have to right click on the image and select "copy image location" and paste the link into a new tab/window of your browser.

Forum 1

This post was modified 1 month ago by Michael Steber

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(@mikeywilding)
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Looks interesting, biggest drop is 10% of highest bankroll. It looks a little volatile at the moment but this could be due to only 90 days of data. Would you be able to calculate the same figures but using the staking at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/how-staking-will-increase-your-profit/ to see how it performs? Figures will be much lower but the journey should be much smoother. You can use the same process for win and place markets. It won't be 80/20 but will be related to the odds.

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(@balimaar)
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Posted by: @mikeywilding

Would you be able to calculate the same figures but using the staking at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/how-staking-will-increase-your-profit/ to see how it performs? Figures will be much lower but the journey should be much smoother. You can use the same process for win and place markets. It won't be 80/20 but will be related to the odds.

Yeah for sure. should be simple enough to do and everything should auto update as I go along. so since its all setup it wont take long.

==

In other news with my "with Pace" method I've taken a couple days off before I head back in and analyse what happened. My selections for 8/12 I felt were my strongest yet... but the horse racing gods decided to only give me ONE place out of 8 selections. So given each way bets on the lot thats 1/16 for the day. 0/8 wins 1/8 places.

I know cycles like this are inevitable but I'm wise enough to hold back in case my annoyance clouds my judgement and analysis of anything I might have done wrong.


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(@mikeywilding)
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Posted by: @balimaar

I'm wise enough to hold back in case my annoyance clouds my judgement and analysis of anything I might have done wrong.

The annoyance clouds are very powerful!

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(@balimaar)
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Here we are using the stakes related to odds on both sides of the equation. An important note here is that for the purpose of this record if a place price was below $1.10 I did not record a bet. At that price it is far too much risk for minimal reward.

Forum 2

Through this process though I uncovered something that may indicate a way that my bookie might highlight a professional looking punter.

I found using a 1% edge that if a horse won... a lot more often than not the total winnings (not including the stakes) was almost always $20 (give or take a couple cents either side). I saw how often it was happening I had to go back with pen, paper and calculator and make sure there was not an error with my formulae on the spreadsheet. I found that there was no mistake.

Rather clever of the bastards if that is the case.


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(@balimaar)
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Given the above... what would you say to me carrying this method on to 100 days of selections and seeing where we end up at the end (rather than just 100 wins). I think the results at the end would be a fair indication of where the 'without pace' method would end up.


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