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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
26/06/2020 6:55 am  

I hope you are feeling better as well. 

for a "new" member i would say you are doing just great mate

I couldn't agree more.

I need some help with chi2

As you are using Excel this is very easy. You've already got the expected winners and actual winners, now you need to calculate the expected losers (selections - expected winners) and the actual losers (selections - actual winners). Then in Excel do this sum:

=CHISQ.TEST(actual winners:actual losers,expected winners:expected losers)

. I think I have done A/E properly.

If you'd like me to check, please attach the actual spreadsheet and I'll have a look. Assuming it's done correctly, then starting with 1.12 and 1.39 A/E is excellent. I'd expect them, particularly the place one, to drop with more selections, but generally anything over 1.05 is very good.

A big fear of mine is ending up with a case where I have 5 possibilities and not being able to decide between them. I think it happened once on Day 1 and I just ran a quick Monte Carlo amongst my remaining horses and took the top 3. I guess it worked... but at the same time it makes me a little uncomfortable letting that be my tie breaker.

In this situation you shouldn't bet. If you can't make a decision, then consider the race to be too competitive and move on. You don't have to place a bet, and there's always another race very shortly after. Not having to place a bet is one of the big advantages you have over a bookmaker who has to give odds on every race.

The only real stumbling block is to do with Pace.

Pace is not the easiest to get the hang of. So I suggest, for the moment, you don't use it. You don't have to use pace to make a profit. For the next round of selections try not using pace and let's see how much of an impact it has on the selections, and more importantly if that eases the worry it's causing over whether you've used it correctly.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
27/06/2020 8:21 am  

Thanks guys 😀 Unfortunately I was not as quick to mend as I hoped, lets just say I worshiped the throne for quite some time. I am better now.

I have done the chi2 calculation. What does this number tell us?

1593242486-chi2.png

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
27/06/2020 10:36 am  

Today's Selections:

CURRAGH R2 16:45
#1

CURRAGH R3 17:15
#1, #7
I was left with 6 as well after eliminations. I just did not see any redeeming factors for 6 compared to the rest of my possibilities.

CURRAGH R4 17:45
#1, #4
Not much to say here, after odds elims and DSLGR these two highly rated horses were left.

CURRAGH R5 18:15
#15, #9
#11 was also in the possibilities after elims. I removed 11 due to lagging behind in 5278 and the trainer/jockey.

 

CURRAGH R8 19:45
#8
Last horse standing after standard elims

LINGFIELD R3 17:25
#3, #5, #4
Last horses standing and highly rated by 5278

LINGFIELD R4 17:55
#3, #8
1, 7, 10 were also in the list. Eliminated them as compared to trainer and jockey they werent appealing prospects.

LINGFIELD R5 18:30
#1, #4, #5
3 and 8 excluded as the rest of the horses have it seems better trainer and jockey combo

LINGFIELD R7 19:30
#1, #7

LINGFIELD R8
#1, #3

NEWCASTLE R5 14:25
#1, #5, #10
Eliminated 9 and 11 due to trainer/jockey. Eliminated 2 due to gulf in 5278

NEWCASTLE R6 15:00
#2, #4

NEWCASTLE R8 16:10
#2, #3

NEWCASTLE R9 16:40
#1, #3, #7
Eliminated 4 owing to comparative gulf in 5278

NEWMARKET (JULY) R2 14:05
#5, #6

NEWMARKET (JULY) R3 14:40
#2

NEWMARKET (JULY) R4 15:15
#5

NEWMARKET (JULY) R5 15:50
#1
Eliminated #2 as #1 jockey/trainer is evidently superior

NEWMARKET (JULY) R8 15:50
#1

REDCAR R3 13:05
#1, #5
Excluded 4 and 9 owing to 5278 gulf and trainer/jockey

REDCAR R5 14:15
#3 #5 #9

REDCAR R7 15:25
#1 #3 #6

REDCAR R8 16:00
#2 #4

REDCAR R9 16:35
#4 #7 #12

 

 

 

 

 


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
28/06/2020 5:31 am  

Day 2 Results

Firstly you'll no doubt notice Michael that one of my selections was on 151W/26P. Rest assured when I did my selections BF odds on that horse were well below the $30 threshold. If I recall correctly, the horse was around 6.5 to win.

I'd still love to know what the chi2 figure is telling us. I understand A/E but Chi2 throws me. Anyway attached is my screenshot of my data so far.

I have included A/E and Chi2 calcs for just the day as well as 'lifetime' which for the moment is only 2 days.

1593318698-day2data.png

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
28/06/2020 5:42 am  

WOOPS! uploaded the wrong picture. heres the proper one.

The difference in that huge odds variance was me using my Aussie bookie site for odds and bet placing.

Today I ignored place and instead used trainer/jockey and 5278 to trim down the selections. Seems to work well.

1593319367-day2data.png

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
28/06/2020 5:44 am  

Can we please have the edit timer extended? Barely have time to blink before its over.

Anyway heres take 3 with the proper screenshot

1593319496-day2data.png

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
28/06/2020 7:18 am  

So many horses on for today's races that havent had a good race in a long time. In fact for one horse in Curragh it has been over 9.5 years since its last race!

28/6 Selections

CURRAGH R3 15:10
#2, #3, #4, #5

CURRAGH R4 15:45
#2, #11, #6, #14, #10

CURRAGH R5 16:15
#5, #9

CURRAGH R6 16:45
#5

CURRAGH R7 17:15
#6, #11, #16

CURRAGH R8 17:45
#1, #2, #8, #11

HAMILTON R2 12:35
#2, #3

HAMILTON R3 13:10
#1, #2, #5

HAMILTON R5 14:20
#1, #5, #8

HAMILTON R6 14:55
#1, #2, #6

HAMILTON R7 15:30
#5

NEWMARKET R2 13:35
#5, #7, #8

Included 5 (forgive me Michael) owing to a hugely superior overall pace figure compared to the rest of the field despite being a long time since DSLGR.

NEWMARKET R3 14:10
#1, #5

Excluded 3 after normal elims owing to longer PR odds and inferior trainer/jockey

NEWMARKET R5 15:20
#2, #4

Excluded 3 owing to slightly inferior trainer/jockey

NEWMARKET R7 16:30
#3

NEWMARKET R8 17:00
#5, #6

WINDSOR R4 13:55
#2, #6

WINDSOR R5 14:25
#3

WINDSOR R6 15:00
#2, #6

WINDSOR R7 15:35
#7

WINDSOR R8 16:10
#2, #4, #7

Excluded 1 and 6 owing to VDW odds being longer than the rest

WINDSOR R9 16:40
#5, #7


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
28/06/2020 11:38 am  

Final selections for the day taking into account scratchings and payout on places limits from my bookie. I've also done staking according to the most recent podcast. We shall see how it goes!

1593340711-day3finalselections.png

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
29/06/2020 2:49 am  

My SR is taking a rather savage beating since day 1. I'm going to give it another few days to gather more data but seriously considering adding a rule to say "Don't place bets where the 'To Place' bet is priced at $3.50 or greater"

Right now the average odds on my losses on placed horses is at $3.51.

Time is short today so I haven't yet researched the lengths my bets won/lost by but will do so later.

 

 

1593395396-day3wolengths.png

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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
29/06/2020 10:56 am  

@balimaar thank you for all the updates. I've extended the edit timer to 15 minutes 🙂

The Chi2 tells us how likely the results are due to chance or the selection process.

0.08 = 8%

0.63 = 63%

In those two examples from your spreadsheet, the first says it's an 8% chance the selections are due to chance, the second says it's a 63% chance they're due to chance.

However, this figure only gets accurate with more data, so it's the lifetime number we're interested in. I would actually delete the daily figure as it will be completely misleading.

So... 8% is very good, but there's not much data yet. The goal is to have this number at 5% or lower.

The A/E is currently very strong.

At the moment I wouldn't change anything, I'd keep using the exact same process and gathering more stats on it.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
30/06/2020 1:51 am  

The Chi2 figure underneath what I've called 'Actual' wins and losses is the Chi2 figure for just that day's bets.

Lifetime Chi2 is... well... the Chi2 figure for all my selections.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
30/06/2020 6:06 am  

I won't be making any selections today. Instead I'll be studying yesterdays picks. For the first time my A/E for the day is below 1.

 

 

1593493601-day4.png

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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
Member Admin
Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 1928
30/06/2020 9:40 am  
Posted by: @balimaar

I won't be making any selections today. Instead I'll be studying yesterdays picks.

This is one of the quickest ways to progress. However, don't put too much emphasis on the A/E value being less than one over a single days selections. If it's less than one over a hundred selections, then it's something to look into, but you will get days and weeks which are downswings, this is to be expected.

The Race Advisor now has an Instagram channel. You can follow us on Instagram here.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
30/06/2020 9:46 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding
Posted by: @balimaar

I won't be making any selections today. Instead I'll be studying yesterdays picks.

This is one of the quickest ways to progress. However, don't put too much emphasis on the A/E value being less than one over a single days selections. If it's less than one over a hundred selections, then it's something to look into, but you will get days and weeks which are downswings, this is to be expected.

Oh for sure. I just want to make sure that I didn't make any obvious errors when I made my selections which might have influenced the string of losses.

That being said though, I have to say that the staking plan does work nicely. With almost everything else I have tried, a loss streak like this would have put a fair dent in it. As it is I was fairly close to break even so big thumbs up from me there!

 


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 weeks ago
Posts: 32
03/07/2020 6:11 am  

OK I think its time we drill down to looking at some changes potentially. Our sample size is nearly 200.

Of some concern is the Chi2 figure which seems to be suggesting suddenly that the system is 73% luck instead of skill. Compared to previous day where the chance of that was 4x10^-6

I have noticed that since the advice to ignore pace that my SR has gone on a steady decline. I think it might be time to either (a) I be a big boy and learn how to use it with some guidance (b) carry on ignoring and instead look at odds.

If we look at (b) my average losing place odds remain around the $3.50 mark.

Of course if I am being overly... concerned about nothing don't hesitate to tell me so and why and I'll adapt

1593753065-day5odds.png

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