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steve arnold
(@future)
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Posts: 124
25/07/2020 9:15 am  

(@balimaar) i also hope your feeling better now mate


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 47
25/07/2020 3:05 pm  
Posted by: @future

(@balimaar) i also hope your feeling better now mate

Reckon I am now. The initial illness was a case of general nausea. Nothing major.

My more recent scare came about with a case of really bad flu. Considering current circumstances I was quite nervous for a while and didnt entirely trust the negative test.

But I am fit, fine and raring to go now!

 


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steve arnold
(@future)
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Posts: 124
25/07/2020 3:35 pm  
Posted by: @balimaar

Reckon I am now. The initial illness was a case of general nausea. Nothing major.

My more recent scare came about with a case of really bad flu. Considering current circumstances I was quite nervous for a while and didnt entirely trust the negative test.

But I am fit, fine and raring to go now!

 

good to hear mate , i had something come in the post the other day , i'm down for the home anti-body test


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2213
27/07/2020 11:50 am  
Posted by: @balimaar

Since I have been ignoring pace I have been fishing for a '3rd thing' to base eliminations on after removing > 6 months DSLGR (I still havent gotten over in that one race a while back where I found a horse had not raced for 10+ years - which coincidentally was its good race).

It's incredible when you start looking at them 🙂

I'm also a lot more comfortable with the software as well. Its not as daunting to me as when I first started.

Great to hear.

If@mikeywildingyou wouldnt mind making sure the a/e and chi2 formulae are correct that would be hugely appreciated

Absolutely. They look fine, except I would separate out the place and win elements. It becomes a bit more complex if you're trying to merge them, I generally find it's easier to run these two figures separately, and that also allows you to track which bet type you've got the edge in (it may be both!)

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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28/07/2020 3:20 pm  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

Absolutely. They look fine, except I would separate out the place and win elements. It becomes a bit more complex if you're trying to merge them, I generally find it's easier to run these two figures separately, and that also allows you to track which bet type you've got the edge in (it may be both!)

I will certainly do that. I've taken a day off as nonsense happened at work which messed with my brain. I have just done selections for 29/7 using pace as the 'third thing'

 

As an interesting side exercise, I have gone through and used multiple MC sims to pick horses. In those runs I took the whole field through 1001 sims (I have a thing about using 'exact' numbers), trimmed down the field and re-ran until I had 2-3 selections.

I have noticed that 'my' system and the MC sims have quite often picked at least one horse for the same race. Whether that's a good or bad thing we will find out haha!


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Posts: 2213
29/07/2020 10:36 am  

Superb, I hope today will clear your head, and you'll be able to join me on the Goodwood Analysis at 11am.

Keep us posted on how the multiple sims and your system are working together.

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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30/07/2020 6:26 am  

Here is the updated calculations which includes 'win only' figures.


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2213
30/07/2020 1:25 pm  

@balimaar looking very promising.

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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31/07/2020 8:14 am  

Here's data from 29/7 where I used pace for the first time since Day 1.

Goodwood saved me that day. The system picked a few surprise winners according to my Australian bookmaker Goodwod 13:10 and Goodwood 14:15.

The 13:10 race winner was at $26. 14:15 was @ $9.50

Its only one day of data so I'm not overly worried about A/E just yet.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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01/08/2020 2:30 am  

First some details about how I am using MC. I do what I have come to call 'basic elims' which are essentially all horses >6  months SLGR, then I trim off the really high BF odds. Then I run the sims and eliminate the worst performing horses until I reach the final 2 (in most cases).

So today was the first day that I used MC alongside my selections. I'm really not liking my results with using pace as my third thing. But I can give it a couple more days.

Today's results with MC compared to mine.... *shudders*


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Posts: 2213
01/08/2020 10:23 am  

@balimaar really interesting. Is the pace being used on the MC method or your own analysis? Pace is tricky, it’s quite a fickle beast with the limited in-running data we have in the UK. 

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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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Joined: 2 months ago
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01/08/2020 10:41 am  
Posted by: @mikeywilding

Is the pace being used on the MC method or your own analysis?

I really couldnt say @mikeywilding either way. I do my basic eliminations then tell Monte Carlo to sim 1001. Whatever MC does by default I guess is the best answer I can give you there.

Posted by: @mikeywilding

Pace is tricky, it’s quite a fickle beast with the limited in-running data we have in the UK. 

Possibly. I'm using pace somewhat differently today in my own selections. We'll see if that has any effect.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 47
02/08/2020 12:55 am  

Day 2 with my slight change to how I'm using pace. All I did with the pace figures was remove all horses that had too much 'negative' pace.

To keep things fair if I picked 2 horses in a race I'd have MC pick 2. The reason for the slight imbalance here is because a couple of MC's selections ended up being scratched.


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Michael Steber
(@balimaar)
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Joined: 2 months ago
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03/08/2020 3:50 am  

So here's an interesting kettle of fish.

So according to this. My work has a slight edge picking winners while using MC after my basic elims gives me an advantage on place horses.

 

What should I do from here @mikeywilding ? Chi2 seems to think I am lucky more than skilful here...


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Michael Wilding
(@mikeywilding)
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Joined: 11 years ago
Posts: 2213
03/08/2020 12:56 pm  

@balimaar the edge on MC place is high. The Chi Square will be high, there's still not enough volume for it yet. Can you rattle through some volume on Aldermist to test the theory?

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