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(@mikeywilding)
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12/09/2020 8:00 pm  

Here's an example of 183k random horses using SP.

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(@michael-clarke)
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12/09/2020 8:32 pm  

Betfair SP.


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(@balimaar)
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21/10/2020 3:39 am  

Health does not like me at all. I've been bedridden with a nasty flu for quite a while 🙁 But I'm back again with today's selections. The flu was really awful. If the flu was this bad I hate to think what the big nasty covid is like to experience *shudders*

 

21/10

Fontwell

R3 14:35 (MC #7)

#7

Only horse with recent good race

R4 15:10 (MC #2)

#2

Only horse with recent good race

R5 15:45 (MC #3)

#3

Only horse with recent good race

R7 16:55 (MC #9)

#9

1 elimd t/j

3, 7 elimd comp high VDW

Gowran Park

R4 15:30 (MC #2, #5)

#2, #8

5, 3, 10, 4 elimd t/j

6, 7 elimd VDW

R7 17:05 (MC #5)

#5

9, 2, 1 elimd t/j

7, 8, 10 elimd VDW

Hereford

R2 13:50 (MC #1)

#1

Only horse with recent good race

R4 15:00 (MC #2)

#2

Better metrics across the board.

R6 16:15 (MC #1)

#1

Only horse with recent good race

Kempton skipped entirely. I did not like ANY of the races. I caught myself trying to force a selection in the final race. Catching that I skipped the race entirely. I know how badly forcing things can affect stats and bankrolls.

Newmarket skipped entirely for similar reasons.

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(@mikeywilding)
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21/10/2020 11:30 am  

@balimaar sorry to hear that you've not been well, I hope you are on the road to recovery now. Good stop from forcing a selection yourself.

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(@balimaar)
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22/10/2020 1:54 pm  

Here we are with the above day's results and current lifetime statistics for my "Road to 100 Wins - w/o Pace version"

Forum 1


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(@balimaar)
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27/10/2020 7:21 am  

I'm calling this close enough to 50 wins. It's bound to come up before the end of tomorrow for both my own personal selections and the MC selections

Since my recovery it seems MC is rallying and has caught up and overtaken my own selections as far as a/e figures go.

Forum 2


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(@mikeywilding)
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27/10/2020 11:48 am  

@balimaar excellent progress 🙂 both versions are looking very strong

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(@balimaar)
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28/10/2020 7:53 am  

Here's the official 50 selection milestone data:

Forum 3

I've also been putting some thought into the future... specifically the method where I am a lot more strict on BF Odds (where I eliminate horses whose odds are > $6).

Looking at my stats for this run and the stats featured in other spots in this thread I am happy with this level of risk in my selections and the $6 hard limit would eliminate too much value from my selections.

Besides (assuming my edge holds) I am already picking 28.99% more winners than the odds suggest I should be so... why play around with prices when its clearly working?

 

Scrolling through certain sections of this thread I see questions about how I am using MC. I get the feeling my answers are misunderstood. I think at some point over the next couple days I'll create an unlisted YT video and show I use MC to make selections.

@mikeywilding I have not had time yet to glance through the new strategy videos you created. Can I ask which one you'd have recommended to me if I posted my first post today in the intro thread?

So here is the plan for the immediate future:

S1. I complete my current run to 100 wins on 3 Factor without using pace.

S2. Then complete 100 wins on 3 Factor WITH pace.

S3. Finally complete a run to 100 wins on the above reccomendation from Mikey.

Unless of course, Mikey says that Step 3 would largely be a waste. Then I imagine Mikey and I would combine brains to see how we can tweak my process based on the info from Step 1 and Step 2.


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(@mikeywilding)
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28/10/2020 10:18 am  

@balimaarit's looking good 🙂 

Posted by: @balimaar

why play around with prices when its clearly working?

Absolutely no reason. If something is working, you don't want to play with it, leave it and let it continue to work.

Posted by: @balimaar

I think at some point over the next couple days I'll create an unlisted YT video and show I use MC to make selections.

This would be great, it's always brilliant to see how you are using the tools. 

Posted by: @balimaar

@mikeywilding I have not had time yet to glance through the new strategy videos you created. Can I ask which one you'd have recommended to me if I posted my first post today in the intro thread?

I would suggest starting with strategy #2 

Posted by: @balimaar

So here is the plan for the immediate future:

S1. I complete my current run to 100 wins on 3 Factor without using pace.

S2. Then complete 100 wins on 3 Factor WITH pace.

S3. Finally complete a run to 100 wins on the above reccomendation from Mikey.

Unless of course, Mikey says that Step 3 would largely be a waste. Then I imagine Mikey and I would combine brains to see how we can tweak my process based on the info from Step 1 and Step 2.

I'm getting confused between the different runs 😀 which one are the results above from?

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(@balimaar)
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28/10/2020 11:36 pm  
Posted by: @mikeywilding
Posted by: @balimaar

So here is the plan for the immediate future:

S1. I complete my current run to 100 wins on 3 Factor without using pace.

S2. Then complete 100 wins on 3 Factor WITH pace.

S3. Finally complete a run to 100 wins on the above reccomendation from Mikey.

Unless of course, Mikey says that Step 3 would largely be a waste. Then I imagine Mikey and I would combine brains to see how we can tweak my process based on the info from Step 1 and Step 2.

I'm getting confused between the different runs 😀 which one are the results above from?

The above picture from my spreadsheet shows results for 100 wins WITHOUT looking at pace.


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(@mikeywilding)
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29/10/2020 10:08 am  

@balimaar in that case the plan sounds good to me 🙂

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(@balimaar)
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03/11/2020 1:06 am  

I wish every day was like this haha

Forum 4


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(@mikeywilding)
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03/11/2020 10:40 am  

@balimaar a very nice day 🙂

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(@balimaar)
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04/11/2020 6:45 am  

@mikeywilding

What rating or what screen do I need to look at to find probability or how often a horse has fallen/been pulled up etc?

I have in the last week picked a couple falls and reading the notes available to me it shows I am picking horses that would have otherwise WON easily.


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(@mikeywilding)
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05/11/2020 11:45 am  

We have a rating called RoF (ID 259, and there are rankings and difference from top versions as well). There isn't currently anything which has a percentage of falls, although it could be something we add, if you'd like to see it please drop it into the feature requests section 🙂

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